An updated version of this article with a snow total forecast is available here.
This weekend will bring the best chance of a significant storm so far this season, but right now, it's not certain if the NYC metro area will see snow or rain.
Currently, the best chance for snow is most likely north and west of New York City. The immediate metro area most likely will see a mix of rain and snow with possible light accumulations in NYC, northeastern New Jersey, and on Long Island.
The heaviest snow will be reserved for northwest New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, and the Catskills and Poconos, where it should be more of an all-snow event.
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The timeframe for the storm at this point is Saturday night into Sunday.
Rain or snow?
It's too far out to settle on specifics, but we can expect better track confidence coming into view over the next few days.
Snow would be quite a change of pace for the tri-state. Central Park has not recorded an inch of snowfall in a single-calendar day since Feb. 13, 2022 -- nearly two years ago. At this point, it still looks like any plowable snow will be well north and west of the city this weekend, but there's still time for the forecast to change.
Rain could be problematic, too. Winds and waves will keep shore areas at risk for more erosion and perhaps flooding. Up to 2 inches of rain are possible south and east of the city by the time the system moves out, escalating the flooding concerns. Check the latest weather alerts for your neighborhood here.
If you're looking at getting away this weekend for some skiing, you could have some good skiing further inland.
What about the forecast for the rest of this week?
Local
While we await more agreement on the models for this weekend, it will remain clear but cool for the rest of the week. Thursday turns slightly colder than an above-average Wednesday, and Friday looks to start downright frigid.
Another storm could move through in the Tuesday / Wednesday timeframe next week. With temperatures expected to be warm, we're expecting rain across the area.
