Breaking Down the NBA Final Four: Look for Cavs and Warriors to Advance

Golden State has newly-crowned MVP Stephen Curry and Cleveland has four-time MVP LeBron James, favoring both teams when they start their conference finals series this week.

Breaking down the NBA’s Eastern Conference and Western Conference Finals, which start Wednesday in Oakland:

Eastern Conference

No. 1 Atlanta vs. No. 2 Cleveland

The battle between the star-less Hawks and LeBron James’ Cavs starts Wednesday night in Atlanta.
The Hawks won the season series, 3-1, which should give the team confidence against a squad that features four-time MVP James and has won 42 of its last 53 games. The Hawks advanced to its first East Finals since relocating from St. Louis in 1968 by ousting Washington in six games.

Atlanta was down 2-1 against the Wizards, but won the final three games. But the Hawks didn’t dominate, winning the trio by a total of only nine points. Forward Al Horford outscored Washington’s big men, Nene and Marcin Gortat, by himself, 101-100. The Hawks got their usual balanced offense, although three-point specialist Kyle Korver made only 12 of 42 attempts vs. the Wizards.

The Hawks used a sagging defense with some zone to force James to pass off in the regular-season and likely will go to that strategy again to try to prevent the game’s top player from advancing to his sixth finals in the last nine years.

In the second round, James sent the Bulls home for the fourth time in the last six seasons, as the Cavs recovered from a 2-1 deficit to advance to their first conference finals since 2009. He closed out Game 4 with a last-second game-winning shot and then produced one of those tour de force games in Game 5 (38 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists and his first turnover-free game of the season in 41 minutes) as the Cavs took control.

With Kevin Love injured vs. Boston in the first round and done for the playoffs, the last thing the Cavs need is to lose any more starters. But there is one troubling injury: Kyrie Irving was ineffective in three games vs. Chicago and has foot and knee issues, but he’ll have five full days to recover.

Prediction: Cavs in 5.

Western Conference

No. 1 Golden State vs. No. 2 Houston

The Warriors finally faced some adversity after winning a league-high 67 games in the regular-season and then sweeping out New Orleans in the first round. But after Memphis went up 2-1, the Warriors reeled off three straight wins to get back to the West Finals for the first time since 1976.

In the three wins, newly-crowned MVP Stephen Curry averaged 27 points per game and six three’s per game. In that time the Warriors also made 43 3-pointers to only 12 for Memphis, but the story was the defensive job the Warriors did to win the series in six games. Over the final three games, they held Memphis’ two big men, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, to only 31, 31 and 36 points combined.

That showed that the Warriors are indeed one of the top defensive teams in the league, even if they’re first known for their top-ranked offense. The Warriors owned the Rockets in the regular-season, winning all four games.

The Rockets should be flying for this series, even with the quick turnaround off Sunday’s Game 7 win against the Clippers. They come in on a three-game winning streak after falling behind L.A., 3-1. With the win, they became only the ninth team in history, out of 228, to trail 3-1 in a series and recover to advance to the next round.

The Rockets’ epic Game Six comeback in Los Angeles, in perhaps the most stunning outcome of any this season, came after trailing by 19 points late in the third quarter. The rally was even more astounding as they rallied with James Harden on the bench for the entire fourth quarter.

Harden, who finished second to Curry in the MVP voting, secured Houston’s first trip to the West Finals since 1997 with a 31-point effort, including 15 free throws.

Houston was successful against the Clippers when Dwight Howard dominated and when the team got timely contributions from role players Trevor Ariza, Corey Brewer and Josh Smith. Houston is one of the top three-point shooting teams, so it can match the Warriors in that department. But Houston’s defense can be leaky and that’s the last thing the squad needs in this series.

Prediction -- Warriors in 5.

Longtime New York columnist Mitch Lawrence continues to write about pro basketball, as he’s done for the last 22 years. His columns for NBCNewYork.com on the Knicks, Brooklyn Nets and the NBA, along with other major sports, will appear twice weekly. Follow him on Twitter @Mitch _ Lawrence
 

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