The NASCAR Sprint Cup series stops at California Speedway's two mile oval for the 25th race of the 2008 season, the Pepsi 500. Race Preview looked at past performances and season trends to predict how the field should finish on Sunday.
When: Sunday, August 31, 2008 at 8:17 p.m./et
Weather: Mostly sunny with a daytime high around 90; wind out of the WSW at 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 10%.
The Track: California Speedway
California is a 2 mile long D-shaped oval. It has intermediate (14 degree) banking on the corners which allows for drivers to run their cars nearly wide-open the entire way around the track. The aerodynamic package in the car is very important.
Key to Race: RUN WITH THE BIG DOGS OR GO HOME
This is a race that used to be won or lost in the wind tunnel, but the Car of Tomorrow isn't as dependent on aerodynamic packages as the Car of Yesterday. Judging from the February race at the track this race should be very competitive with Roush-Fenway, Gibbs, and Hendrick being the cars to beat.
Sports
Qualifying Procedures:
44 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots. Starting positions 1-43 will be determined by two lap qualifying runs that will be done on Friday, August 29 at 6:40 pm/et. Cars that are in the top 35 in owner's points are guaranteed a spot in the race.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet:
Top 5
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards has finished sixth or better in seven of his eight Cup starts at Fontana. He won the February race at the track and is our favorite to win again this weekend.
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: It is tough not to pick the native Californian. Johnson won last year's August race at Fontana and has posted top three finishes in four of the last six races at the facility.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Busch has finished in the top 10 in the past six races at Fontana. He, as always, is a great fantasy pick.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has three career wins at Fontana and had one of the best cars on the track during February's race. He is a great pick again this weekend.
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has won two of the last five races at Fontana. He is a lock to finish in the top 10 again this weekend.
6 to 10
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has been great at Fontana during his career. He has six top 10 finishes, including a win, in nine career starts at the track.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Fontana is a track Junior has had decent success at in the past. He should crack the top 10.
No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch has been fairly strong at CIS during his career. He has a win and five top five finishes in 12 career starts at the track. This might be a good weekend to use the No. 2 driver.
No. 20 Tony Stewart: Stewart has never won in 14 career starts at Fontana. His Toyota was strong in February, so a top 10 finish is expected.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers has been very successful during his career at Fontana. He is solid sleeper pick this weekend.
11 to 20
No. 1 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex looked great at Fontana the past two races. He could crack the top 10 again this weekend.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton has run well the past five races at CIS. We think he is a lock to finish in the top 15 again this weekend.
No. 07 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has never finished worse than 20th in five career starts at Fontana. He is a great third driver on any fantasy team this weekend.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan has finished 14th, 12th and 16th at Fontana during his career. He is one of our sleeper picks this weekend.
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has been very average in five of the last six races at Fontana. He isn't a great pick on Sunday.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle slumped during the past five races at Fontana, but he has had decent success at the track in the past. We believe in averages and Biffle is due for a strong finish at CIS this weekend.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has just one top 10 finish in five career starts at Fontana. There are much better options this weekend.
No. 12 Ryan Newman: Newman has been very average in five of his last six starts at Fontana. He isn't worth using as anything but a fourth or fifth fantasy driver this weekend.
No. 26 Jamie McMurray: McMurray has five top 10 finishes in 10 career starts at Fontana, but he hasn't cracked the top 10 in the past four races at the track. He isn't worth using as much more than a fourth fantasy driver on Sunday.
No. 84 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger has been driving great lately and had a very strong finish at CIS in February. He is a fantasy sleeper this weekend.
21 to 30
No. 5 Casey Mears: Mears is just a middle-of-the-pack driver. We don't recommend using him as anything but a fourth or fifth member of fantasy teams.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya hasn't done much at Fontana. There are better options this weekend.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Fontana hasn't been good to Sadler since 2005. We wouldn't use him as anything but a fifth fantasy driver.
No. 15 Paul Menard: Menard has cracked the top 27 in all three of his career starts at Fontana. He isn't a bad choice as a fifth driver on your fantasy team.
No. 43 Bobby Labonte: Labonte has cracked the top 30 in the past four races at Fontana. We expect he will make it five consecutive this weekend.
No. 38 David Gilliland: Gilliland has finished 25th or better in the past three races at Fontana. He should be able to keep that streak alive this weekend.
No. 44 David Reutimann: Reutimann has averaged a 29th place finish at Fontana during his career. He should finish a little better than that on Sunday.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon is a California native, but he has just four top 20 finishes in 12 career starts at Fontana.
No. 41 Reed Sorenson: Sorenson has averaged just a 29th place finish at Fontana in his career. This isn't a weekend to use the No. 41.
No. 70 Tony Raines: Raines has been decent when asked to take the wheel of the No. 70 car. He is worth using as a fifth driver in the deepest fantasy leagues.
31 to 40
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish Jr. was taken out by an accident early in February's race at Fontana. He is one of the least experienced drivers on the track making him a risky pick this weekend.
No. 66 Scott Riggs: Riggs has been very ordinary at Fontana since his seventh place finish in 2004. He is guaranteed to make the race, but we can't recommend him.
No. 55 Michael Waltrip: Waltrip has been awful the past four races at Fontana. Stay away from him.
No. 22 Dave Blaney: Blaney hasn't cracked the top 20 in the past seven races at Fontana. He isn't a fantasy option.
No. 28 Travis Kvapil: Kvapil has been great this season, but CIS is a track where he hasn't had much success. This isn't the weekend to use the No. 28 car.
No. 01 Regan Smith: Smith finished 31st at Fontana in February. That is about where we see him finishing this weekend.
No. 8 Aric Almirola: Almirola has averaged a 32nd place finish at all tracks not named Bristol in his career. This is about where we anticipate he will finish this weekend.
No. 00 Mike Skinner: Skinner will try and get the No. 00 car into Sunday's field. He should have no problem since only one car won't qualify.
No. 45 Kyle Petty: Petty has led a lap in two of the past three races at Fontana. That doesn't make him a fantasy option.
No. 96 Brad Coleman: Coleman is going to take some time to adjust to the Sprint Cup Series. He won't be a fantasy option until 2009.
Field Fillers
No. 78 Joe Nemechek: We expect "Front-Row Joe" won't have any issue making Sunday's field.
No. 21 Marcose Ambrose: Ambrose will get the No. 21 car into the race, but he isn't a fantasy option.
No. 10 Patrick Carpentier: Carpentier missed the February race at Fontana, but should get the No. 10 car into Sunday's race. No. 87 Kenny Wallace: Wallace won't be in Sunday's starting 43.
No. 08 Johnny Sauter: Sauter will be the only car to not qualify for the field this weekend.
Brownie's Picks
Top Four:
1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kyle Busch
4. Jeff Gordon
Sleepers:
1. David Ragan
2. Brian Vickers
Busts:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Casey Mears
