‘Incredibly Immune-Evasive' COVID Variant Fuels NY Reinfections, Hospitalization Rate Up 35% in Month

The head of the White House's COVID response team joined Gov. Kathy Hochul's first COVID briefing in three months Wednesday to expound on the latest threats as New York grapples with a sixth pandemic wave fueled by the so-called "worst version" of omicron yet, and the one-time epicenter battles viral rates at levels unseen since late January.

BA.5, the COVID variant said to be up to 4.2 times more vaccine-resistant than its previously more vaccine-resistant predecessor BA.2.12.1 and even more transmissible, is the dominant strain circulating in America and the CDC's New York region right now, accounting for an estimated 78% of cases nationally and 80% locally.

As a descendant of omicron, BA.5 already falls into the CDC's "variant of concern" category -- and with mounting, evidence-based reason.

New York state's rolling infection rate per 100,000 is up 52% in just the last month, data shows. The statewide hospitalization rate soared 35% in the same time period. BA.5 seemed to trigger a higher breakthrough infection rate through June. That rate has eased but breakthrough hospitalizations are at their highest rate since May 30, which could reflect the known lag.

Experts say BA.5 also appears to be fueling higher reinfection rates. New York state's reinfection data hasn't been updated since June 20 but that reinfection trend was evident even then. Long Island and New York City led the state's 10 regions on that metric in the latest update, with respective reinfection rates of 7.3 and 6.9 per 100,000, topping the state's 5.2 average.

Those regions now -- all seven counties between them -- are now firmly in the CDC's high-risk category for COVID spread. It may also be associated with a higher risk of breakthrough infections, based on the latest New York state data.

The BA.5 data transcends New York, though, and White House COVID Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha sought to underscore the point at Hochul's briefing.

"It's incredibly immune-evasive," Jha said of the strain. "People who were infected three months ago were seeing high levels of reinfections. People who have now been boosted for awhile, not gotten a vaccine shot in awhile, we're now seeing a lot of breakthrough infections," Jha said.

He reiterated that a new round of omicron-specific vaccines is expected this fall and those who get vaccine boosters now will still be eligible to receive those shots when approved. But he stressed action be taken now where it can: "If you are over 50 years of age and if you have not gotten a COVID shot this year, you need to go out and get one now. It will offer a very high degree of protection, keep you out of the hospital and will get you through the summer."

The emergence of variants is expected, as New Yorkers have learned, and not all variants are reasons to be worried.

But Jha and other researchers say BA.5, and any others that emerge from the original omicron strain that fueled unprecedented surges in COVID hospitalizations and cases earlier this year, need to be watched closely.

"As the Omicron lineage has evolved over the past few months, each successive subvariant 203 has seemingly become better and better at human transmission as well as in antibody evasion," the researchers wrote in their analysis. "It is only natural that scientific attention remains intently focused on each new subvariant of Omicron."

Even though new case rates and, more importantly, hospital admissions and deaths, are a fraction of what they were in January and at other points throughout the pandemic, experts and elected officials are renewing pleas for caution -- especially with the fall rapidly approaching. As Hochul said Wednesday, New Yorkers have been here three times before already.

CDC

Fall is a vulnerable time, Hochul said Wednesday. The state is continuing to monitor the current COVID numbers, she said, and if the BA.5 variant doesn't jerk the trends, COVID rates should decline later this summer heading into fall.

That's why Hochul and her health team, along with other state agencies, are shoring up fall and winter COVID prevention plans now. Those plans include allocating three million of COVID tests to schools, strengthening hospital systems across the state, more access to therapeutics and treatment, a pandemic after-action review and other measures. There will also be a stockpile of 20 million test kits and a 60+ day supply of PPE, in case drug stores run low at any point.

"We've seen the past and the past can become the present if we don't take the steps necessary now," Hochul said.

She has no plans to reimplement school mask mandates in the fall but reserves the right to change her mind. As for the ongoing MTA mask mandate, the governor says no new enforcement or other policies are expected.

"We’ll continue wanting people to wear masks when you’re sitting with complete strangers sometimes in a packed situation. And it’s sometimes hot and there is the opportunity for transmission. And I think it does give people that sense of security," Hochul said.

Watch her full briefing in the player below for details on her COVID plans this fall and winter.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a research center lauded by the likes of Dr. Anthony Fauci and others, said this week that the BA.5 variant, combined with less social distancing, is fueling surges in many parts of the world, including Latin America, North America, Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Oceania.

Researchers say they don't expect a large increase in U.S. COVID deaths from this wave, based on what they saw in other countries that experienced the BA.5 surge earlier.