The intention here is not to overrate the preseason; it's something any knowledgeable football mind would preach against. For the most part these stats are meaningless. Marcus Mason leads the NFL in rushing, but he's a fourth-stringer without an obvious future. Brett Ratliff is the league's top passer, but wasn't even that good at Utah. Undrafted Colts rookie Jordan Senn is tops in preseason tackles. He doesn't have a profile at NFL Draft Scout or wikipedia, and I thought they had everybody.
However, it is exciting to see first-team skill players dominate first-team defenses, even if the defenses they're facing are vanilla. As I wrote last week, Calvin Johnson has done his damage in just four offensive series against Giants and Bengals starting cornerbacks.
Another starter who's lit it up is Matt Schaub. Schaub started shaky at Dallas on Friday night, battling through a string of errant throws, but finished 15-of-27 for 166 yards and an 11-yard touchdown pass to Kevin Walter. He's now completed 68.8% of his attempts for 382 yards, three scores, and no picks.
Some may view it as inevitable success against defenses that aren't game planning, others as a sign of things to come. In Schaub's case, we'd lean towards the latter for five reasons:
1. Houston's receiver corps is among the AFC's best, and has continuity and depth. Catch-first TE Owen Daniels is ready for a third-year leap. Andre Johnson is a top-three talent at the position. Walter, leading the Texans in preseason receiving, looks quicker than ever and combines big hands with run-after-catch ability. Andre' Davis provides explosiveness in reserve and Football Outsiders favorite David Anderson is coming on. All six Texans tailbacks can catch.
2. Houston's secondary will force the offense to keep up. This defensive back corps is going to be bad. Cowboys castoff Jacques Reeves wouldn't even have made Dallas' roster this year had they retained him. He's now the Texans' starting RCB and leads the team in tackles, not something you want your cornerbacks to do. The Texans don't have good cover safeties and will be without top CB Dunta Robinson (torn ACL hamstring) until Week 7. They'll surrender a lot of points.
3. Schaub is playing with urgency after aggressive backup Sage Rosenfels' late-year run in 2007. That's not to say Schaub has a short leash; far from it. The Texans traded two second-round picks (the most valuable commodities in front office football) and took a move down in the 2007 draft for Schaub, then signed him to a six-year, $48 million deal. But Houston was offered Minnesota's third-round pick for Rosenfels this offseason and wouldn't budge. Schaub feels some heat, and we see that as a good thing. He'll make that contract look like chump change by season's end.
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4. The Texans' backfield is in shambles and doesn't have a reliably effective member. Chris Brown and Ahman Green are hurt. Rookie Steve Slaton has change-of-pace potential, but isn't a three-down option yet. Chris Taylor is coming off reconstructive knee surgery and won't make anyone miss. Darius Walker isn't even getting a look and Marcel Shipp is a plodder. To move the rock, the Texans will have to pass.
5. Schaub is remarkably accurate and loves to go vertical, dating back to his days as a Virginia Cav. His career yards-per-attempt average is 7.3. For perspective, Tom Brady's is 7.2, Donovan McNabb's is 6.8, Brett Favre's is 7.0, and Carson Palmer equals Schaub at 7.3. Keep in mind sample size, but Schaub has always been aggressive and his YPA will only improve.
Schaub got nicked up last year and that keeps his Average Draft Position low. He's going as the QB16, behind far less recommended signal callers Philip Rivers (toughest schedule for passers in the league), Brett Favre (new offense), Marc Bulger (shell-shock concerns), and Matt Hasselbeck (back woes, revamped receivers). We have Schaub as the QB12. He's an ideal value in the tenth round of drafts.
Before you check the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide to look up Schaub's projections, read these notes from around the American Football Conference...
Baltimore - Willis McGahee (knee surgery) still can't run and is very iffy for the opener. Get ready to use Ray Rice in a flex spot against the Bengals...Coach John Harbaugh says Joe Flacco is back in the mix to start Week 1. Don't buy it. They can't throw him in there with construction worker/offensive tackle Chad Slaughter on the blind side...Baltimore's secondary appears primed to take a big step back this year, at least early on. FS Ed Reed (shoulder) still hasn't faced contact and may not face Cincinnati. CBs Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle are also at less than full strength and both are over 31. GM Ozzie Newsome's inability to draft well at corner is showing and the Ravens will be a good fantasy matchup.
Buffalo - Early speculation is that Bills T Langston Walker broke his forearm on Sunday. Walker, quite possibly the team's best run blocker and a 6'8/370-pound beast, has been filling in at left tackle in place of holdout Jason Peters. The Bills' tackle situation is a concern for Marshawn Lynch. We'll know more Monday...Rookie James Hardy is going as high as the ninth round in 10-team drafts. Hardy's long-term projection is swell, but he won't do much between the 20s this season in a conservative run-first offense while playing in a likely rotation with incumbent Josh Reed...Lee Evans is running shorter routes for new coordinator Turk Schonert and leads the Bills with nine preseason catches for 88 yards.
Cincinnati - Carson Palmer broke his nose in the third exhibition, but he'll start at Baltimore in Week 1. Whether he'll have Chad Johnson (shoulder) is uncertain, but Ocho Cinco vows to play and the Bengals say he's healed faster than expected. It could go down to the wire...Chris Perry would start at tailback if the season began today. His YPC so far (3.4) is weak, but Perry has faced stacked fronts with T.J. Houshmandzadeh (hamstring) and Johnson sidelined and is running with authority. Don't be surprised if Rudi Johnson is part of Saturday's final cutdowns...Housh says he'll be back practicing this week...Chris Henry's return from suspension could sap TE Ben Utecht's fantasy value from Week 5 on.
Cleveland - The stitches in Braylon Edwards' foot shouldn't affect his fantasy draft status. We project him to post an 83-1230-14.8-12 line for the season. His TDs will likely come back to earth after last year's 16...Brady Quinn had a chance to put pressure on Derek Anderson Saturday, but didn't. D.A. should be on a relatively long leash to open the year...Donte' Stalloworth is averaging only 6.7 yards per catch through three preseason games. Coordinator Rob Chudzinski will have him focus on shorter routes with Edwards as the deep threat...The Lions should've never traded Shaun Rogers. The guy is dominant.
Denver - The team believes Brandon Marshall's 2-3 game suspension could be reduced to one. His appeal will be heard this week. Marshall is on fire, pacing Denver with 10 preseason catches for 139 yards and two scores. Don't let him get to the fourth round of your draft...Selvin Young and Andre Hall are running strong, averaging 4.3 and 4.7 YPC respectively through three exhibitions. Hall is the slight favorite for goal-line work...Jay Cutler hasn't been sacked yet. LT Ryan Clady is an NFL-ready rookie on his blind side and Cutler is killing with a 69.8 completion rate and an 8.2 YPA with a 3:0 TD to INT ratio. Consider drafting him before Donovan McNabb following Kevin Curtis' injury...Tony Scheffler has one catch in the preseason...Smallish rookie Eddie Royal is having trouble releasing from the jam and may lose return duties because he's starting on offense.
Houston - Matt Schaub is showing why he projects to be the best value at QB in fantasy drafts. I covered Schaub in my intro, but if he can stay healthy he can be this year's Ben Roethlisberger...Andre Johnson returned from a slight groin injury and started Friday's exhibition. He's 100% and our No. 2 fantasy receiver...The Texans' backfield remains muddled. Chris Brown (back, knee) is hurt again and Ahman Green (groin) remains shelved. At least one of them will be cut by Saturday. The only Houston RB I'd pick is Steve Slaton, in the middle of PPR drafts...2007 pop sleeper Jacoby Jones is officially a fifth receiver...The Texans will be a great matchup for passing games this year. LCB Fred Bennett doesn't look good and RCB Jacques Reeves is shaping up as this year's Jason David.
Indianapolis - The Colts opened Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday with Payton Manning in a baseball hat and collared shirt. There are indications that he will miss Week 1 due to a routine knee surgery, but the Colts seem encouraged with his recovery. That he's appearing in public is a good sign. He should certainly be the second fantasy QB picked...I noticed an interesting strategy by Gregg Rosenthal in a recent draft; he stole Marvin Harrison (who's healthy and flying around again) in the sixth round, then "handcuffed" him with Anthony Gonzalez in the 11th. Not a bad idea...Dominic Rhodes sewed up the primary backup job behind Joseph Addai weeks ago. Rookie Mike Hart will likely be third on the depth chart. Kenton Keith won't make it.
Jacksonville - The Jags' receiver corps should be intact on opening day. Jerry Porter (hamstring) is due back this week and Reggie Williams (knee) played in Saturday's preseason game. Porter missed all of training camp, and since he's learning a new offense, may begin the season slow...Maurice Jones-Drew sprained his ankle this weekend. Keep an eye on it...Rotoworld Top ProspectMike Walker has seven preseason grabs for 75 yards. He and Matt Jones could rotate with Williams enough that the three might cancel each other out...The stock of the Jags' fantasy defense drops every day that Derrick Harvey's holdout continues. Jacksonville might not have one defender top five sacks this season.
Kansas City - "Their draft was awesome, man" was a common theme about the Chiefs this spring, but this team going to stink. While Herm Edwards and offensive coordinator Chan Gailey could eek out some sleep-induced wins (or 0-0 ties) by boring foes to death, perhaps no roster is as short on talent. GM Carl Peterson needs to watch the waiver wire this coming weekend...Brodie Croyle will be in a short leash to start the season. Look for Tyler Thigpen after the Chiefs' Week 6 bye...Rookie Will Franklin underwent knee surgery Saturday, locking Devard Darling into the second receiver role. Whoever is at QB for K.C. should overload Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe with targets...Kolby Smith looks to have regained his job as the No. 2 tailback after an in-camp scare from Jackie Battle. Jamaal Charles is out of Texas, but still fumbling.
Miami - Chad Pennington will be the Fins' Week 1 QB, but may not last long because rookie Chad Henne is ready. Miami's bye is in Week 4. A switch could happen early...Ronnie Brown won't be cut or traded, but he's clearly behind Ricky Williams on the depth chart and may feel pressure from rookie Jalen Parmele, who had an 80-yard TD run on Saturday night. Parmele will likely go back with Ted Ginn Jr. on kick returns this season...Anthony Fasano is locked in as the starter at tight end...With Jets RCB Justin Miller possibly out for the clubs' Week 1 matchup, Ginn could have a big game against fill-in rookie Dwight Lowery. Lowery can make plays on the ball but won't be able to run with the Dolphins' speedster.
New England - Tom Brady's sore foot isn't a concern. He'll start vs. Kansas City in Week 1 and should rip that secondary apart...LaMont Jordan hasn't played in the Pats' last two preseason games and is a candidate to be cut Tuesday. Sammy Morris appears set to back up Laurence Maroney again...Jabar Gaffney has held off Chad Jackson and will start at split end...Wes Welker suffered a rib injury in the team's third preseason game. We may never know the extent of the injury because New England is so secretive, but wouldn't bump him down draft boards.
New York - There are whispers that Thomas Jones has lost a step. The Jets' line play is improved, but Jones hasn't been productive in the preseason...Jerricho Cotchery is the favorite to be Brett Favre's target of choice this year. Cotchery has a high fantasy ceiling in what could be a pass-first offense...First-round pick Vernon Gholston hasn't passed Bryan Thomas on the depth chart at weak outside linebacker. He's looked good against the run, but isn't ready to be an impact pass rusher just yet...The battle at third receiver is ongoing between Brad Smith and Chansi Stuckey, but Stuckey has the edge because he's a better weapon in the slot.
Oakland - The loss of Drew Carter locks Ronald Curry in as the starting flanker. The Raiders will run more than they pass, but Curry and Zach Miller should be 1-2 in catches when the season is done...Miller is a TE1 in the making. He's pacing Oakland in preseason receiving and had an awesome diving TD catch in the exhibition opener...JaMarcus Russell needs to improve his footwork and accuracy. He's also taking too many sacks...Darren McFadden has 36 preseason carries (4.4 YPC) to Justin Fargas' nine (3.4 YPC). The regular season split won't be so gigantic, but McFadden is going to play the most.
Pittsburgh - Willie Parker is losing third-down duty to Mewelde Moore. As for short-yardage work, Parker got a carry on second-and-one in the team's third exhibition but it was negated by penalty. Rashard Mendenhall executed on a second-and-two, but fumbled twice in the game. The battle for goal-line carries rages on...Santonio Holmes has added punt returning to his No. 1 receiver chores...Heath Miller is an elite NFL tight end, but could wind up blocking more than he runs routes this season to assist Pittsburgh's shaky offensive tackles...A leg injury to ILB Larry Foote could open the door for Lawrence Timmons to pass him on the depth chart.
San Diego - If he knows what's best, Shawne Merriman won't play this year. I don't see this being as big a loss for San Diego as Osi Umenyiora's is to the Giants, but it's a very big deal nonetheless. A healthy Merriman in his second year of coordinator Ted Cottrell's scheme could've gotten 15 sacks, easy...Antonio Gates (foot) is making great strides and could be all systems go for the Bolts' opener...Rookie Jacob Hester is the heavy favorite to back up LaDainian Tomlinson, but keep an eye on what transpires Monday night...The Chargers' passing game faces the league's toughest strength of schedule this season.
Tennessee - Vince Young has completed just 43.2% of his passes with a 4.2 YPA so far in the preseason. He's learning a new system and will improve every week, but should be expected to start slow. Encouraging is his yards-per-carry average (11.1)...Rookie homerun hitter Chris Johnson started the third preseason game with LenDale White nursing a minor injury, running for 35 yards on 11 totes. We hoped for more on the Georgia Dome turf, but he'll still play quite a bit this year...No. 2 tight end Bo Scaife is leading the team in preseason receiving and is a threat to Alge Crumpler's passing-down snaps...David Thornton remains the best Tennessee linebacker to target in IDP leagues. He'll wear the defensive headset. Keith Bulluck is showing his age.
