This is the biggest draft week of the year, so let's get a couple housekeeping notes out of the way and get to some Average Draft Position (ADP) trends and news items.
For those who asked, we'll be posting NFC Notes, Top 10 Vultures, Mock Draft analysis, and more high ceiling ranks during the week. Tiffany Simons and I will also be hosting our first <a href="http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/25863080" target="_newFantasy Fix Live show of the year Thursday at noon. Call us with your questions. Our season position and team previews are available here.
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I'm going to take a look at some recent news and draft trends through the prism of our ADP data atMockDraft.Rotoworld.com. Drafts are starting every couple minutes, and this data only comes from drafts taken place since Saturday, so it should reflect the current state of Fantasy Nation.
The Boom-or-Bust RB2s
Ryan Grant: 2.07 ADP
Reggie Bush: 3.06 ADP
Brandon Jacobs: 3.10 ADP
Laurence Maroney: 4.03 ADP
Michael Turner: 4.05 ADP
Selvin Young: 5.07 ADP
RB2s are always risky. At least you won't have to pay as much this season. Bush and Jacobs were going much higher last season and their situations haven't changed. Both have the talent to out produce this draft slot. The Train is a bargain at that price.
Maroney looks about right. The Patriots are likely to keep his touches inconsistent as they attempt to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Turner's offense will hold him back, but he has big play potential. Young is going to produce like a top-15 running back as long as he stays healthy. This is a nice-looking price. Willie Parker isn't on this list because the boom potential is eroding.
The Bengals backfield morass
Rudi Johnson: 6.02 ADP
Kenny Watson: 9.10 ADP
Chris Perry: 11.01 ADP
While Rudi is trending down, it's not happening nearly fast enough. With news that he is being shopped for a possible trade, there's a decent chance he'll cut.
Sports
That means a lot of carries for Perry and Watson. While Watson and Perry are trending up, they aren't going high enough. Perry is a huge risk because he's only been healthy enough for 73 career carries, but it's a risk worth taking much earlier than the eleventh round. Our Monday night draft guide update pushed Perry into the top-35 running backs, a seventh-round value. Watson moved up and is a great reserve pick at this price. He'll clean up after Perry and Johnson get hurt. We have Rudi pegged in the twelfth round, making him one of the biggest busts to avoid. That projection may move down by the time you read this.
Committee Time
LenDale White: 6.04 ADP
Chris Johnson: 8.05 ADP
The Tennessee offensive line is good enough to make both backs solid values at these prices. White will lose touches, but still could nab 250 carries and plenty of scores. Johnson has earned a ton of high leverage carries. His hype isn't out of control at this price. I drafted him out of the top-110 in a recent draft.
Jonathan Stewart: 5.08 ADP
DeAngelo Williams: 7.05 ADP
This was a surprise. In nearly all the industry drafts I've taken part in, Williams went ahead of Stewart. The veteran has clearly enjoyed the strong preseason and should start in Week 1. I'm still backing Stewart, especially at this price. My belief in his potential has shown up in the rankings all summer, and his huge performance over the weekend eased fears about his toe. He's going to score more touchdowns than Williams. I'd bet on him getting more touches in the end. He's the ideal RB3.
Ronnie Brown: 5.03 ADP
Ricky Williams: 7.08 ADP
These numbers have tightened up the last two weeks. While I've seen Ricky go higher than Brown occasionally, these spots match up closely with Rotoworld's ranks. It's a long season, and we'll take our chances with Brown outlasting Williams.
Ahman Green: 9.08 ADP
Chris Brown: 11.08 ADP
Steve Slaton: 12.09 ADP
Chris Taylor: Off the board
One of these guys will be a starting running back playing for the Godfather of Zone Blocking, Alex Gibbs. Brown and Green could potentially start or get cut. Don't trust Green to stay healthy for long, even at this spot. Slaton is proving that he's more than a third-down back and is a great mid-to-late-round pick. Taylor has an outside chance to start in Week 1 and be Houston's goal line back and he's not even getting taken. I like him in deep leagues. A committee of Slaton and Taylor wouldn't surprise.
The Hall of Famers
Tom Brady: 1.06 ADP
Peyton Manning: 2.03 ADP
Preseason injuries aren't scaring people away. We have Manning pegged at the end of round two, but he's been there all along.
The Franchise Quarterbacks
Tony Romo: 2.07 ADP
Drew Brees: 2.11 ADP
Carson Palmer: 4.02 ADP
Ben Roethlisberger: 4.10 ADP
It hasn't been a great camp for Palmer, but the gap in his draft slot shouldn't be this large. I like the top receivers and most of the talented second running backs like Brandon Jacobs more than Romo and Brees that early.
Tight End Talk
Jason Witten: 4.09 ADP
Antonio Gates: 5.02 ADP
Kellen Winslow: 5.05 ADP
I'd rank Gates first, but no argument can be made with the value for all three. They perform like second wideouts, so they deserve to be drafted like them. I'd much rather have them at this price than the following .
Tony Gonzalez: 6.04 ADP
Dallas Clark: 6.04 ADP
Chris Cooley: 7.02 ADP
These guys are more than a round worse than the big three.
Clark is set up to be one of the biggest busts of the year. He's injury prone and has topped 40 catches, 500 yards, or five touchdowns once in his five-year career. Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez will steal his shine. Cooley is solid, but in a system that may not feature him as much. Gonzalez has to deal with age and Brodie Croyle.
I'd rather wait at tight end if you don't go top shelf .
Tony Scheffler: 10.01 ADP
Owen Daniels: 11.05 ADP
Greg Olsen: 13.08 ADP
Zach Miller: Off the board
It wasn't so long ago that guys like Scheffler, Daniels, and even Olsen would have been taken in the top-eight tight ends. Scheffler and Daniels have already proven they can produce like fantasy starters, and they have big room for improvement. Olsen and Miller are big talents that are ready to take the normal second-year leap for tight ends.
Blotter Boys Wideouts
Chad Johnson: 3.04 ADP
Steve Smith: 3.06 ADP
Brandon Marshall: 4.05 ADP
Marvin Harrison: 4.11 ADP
I'm surprised Johnson didn't take more of a ADP hit after his preseason shoulder injury. Of course, these drafts mostly took place before the latest news of his torn labrum. He's a risky pick this high, but it does look like he'll play in Week 1. Kellen Winslow supposedly played all last season with a similar injury, and never needed surgery. But everyone's pain tolerance is different and it will only take one wrong landing to make it worse.
Smith and Marshall are much safer picks at these prices. As Mad Dog would say, good job by everyone not overreacting to the two game suspensions. Marshall could get his suspension reduced by a game, so this is a great value. It's surprising more people aren't willing to take a chance on Harrison after a healthy preseason. His ADP hasn't budged. You aren't going to find another receiver this late who is more likely to score ten times.
In Like a Lion
Calvin Johnson: 4.03 ADP
Roy Williams: 4.05 ADP
So much for Megatron slipping after a rough rookie season. The Lions will throw less this season, which is a concern, but these values make sense. Jon Kitna is going in the eleventh round. It's a concern that Kitna will lose his job during the year, but he's a serviceable QB2 at that price.
The Favre Effect
Thomas Jones: 3.08 ADP
Jerricho Cotchery: 5.03 ADP
Laveranues Coles: 6.02 ADP
The two wideouts climbed almost two rounds since Favre was signed! We had them ranked almost this high with Pennington, so the upgrades were less dramatic. Jones was taken tenth overall in a co-worker's league this week, which is New York insanity. Jones looked like a great value this as a cheap source for carries, but he's no longer that cheap.
To see where we have all the Jets ranked, check out the Rotoworld online draft guide.
