The latest track for what could be the fourth nor'easter to hit the tri-state in less than a month, this time landing on the first day of spring, includes potentially good news for the region.
The data shows the storm tracking south and staying farther out to sea, which means the tri-state would see less rain, snow and wind, Storm Team 4 says.
However, Storm Team 4 warned that it is too early to know with any certainty, and that the storm could track farther north than current model predictions, bringing a heavy period of accumulating snow and a wintry mix to the city and coast.
At this point, it looks like the storm would impact the tri-state Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Storm Team 4 says clouds would develop Tuesday — the first day of spring — before the mix of rain and snow arrives in the evening.
Even if the storm does track north, March's warming temperatures and high sun angle would likely prevent a significant accumulation of snow, according to Storm Team 4.
The exact timing, phasing, track and intensity of this nor'easter remain highly variable, but more clarity should come as the system continues to develop, Storm Team 4 says.
Temperatures are expected to remain in the low-to-mid 40s into Tuesday, but highs may approach 50 by Friday. Temperatures will drop into the 20s overnight ahead of the New York City Half Marathon on Sunday, when skies will be sunny.
The potential fourth significant winter storm comes on the heels of a trio of deadly nor’easters that ravaged parts of the tri-state this month, knocking out power to hundreds of thousands of people and crippling East Coast travel.
Storm Team 4 says the active weather pattern is expected to continue for the remainder of March, meaning even more serious storms are possible.
Ryan Lahiff
Eric Hinton
Dawn Thursday revealed more destruction. Here, a fallen tree crushes a car at Vanderbilt and Myrtle avenues in Fort Greene.
Christine Rejcek
Brandon Gates
Coralie Carlson
Anthony D'Amato
Rany Haksan
Andi, a Boston Terrier mix who wandered the streets after Hurricane Maria before being rescued from Puerto Rico earlier this year, tries to keep at least one paw out of the snow at her Maplewood home.
Nancy Antonelli
Christine Rejcek
Bella Calayag
NBC New York
Hans Zhong
Coralie Carlson
NBC New York
Dan Chiu
Coralie Carlson
Michelle Beteta
News 4 New York
Kevin Reilly
NBC New York
TELEMUNDO 40
Krystal Rodriguez
NBCConnecticut.com
NBC New York
St. Hubert's Animal Welfare Center
NBC New York
NBC New York
NBC New York
NBC New York
NBC New York
NBC New York
Jerson Argueta
A driver spun out and flipped her car on the LIE as the storm worsened. (She wasn't seriously injured.)
Erica Byfield
NBC New York
NBC New York
David Nelke
By 10 a.m. Nutley, NJ was already coated with a solid 2 inches of snow.
News 4 New York
Two tractor-trailers collided on the eastbound LIE near exit 35 as the snow picked up.
@philryan92 / Twitter
Hard to beat the sights in Manhattan on a snowy morning, at least before the storm gets bad.
@ColinOLearyNY / Twitter
The fourth nor'easter of March may bring a foot of snow to NYC, including this basketball court in Brooklyn.
News 4 New York
The calm before the storm, as seen from Hoboken early Wednesday morning. By 8 a.m. snow was steadier in New York City, accumulating in parts of Staten Island.
News 4 New York
By 9 a.m. it was already getting difficult to get a train to either Boston or Washington.
News 4 New York
In the New Jersey suburbs around Newark, snow wasn't sticking to much yet as of 8:30 a.m.
Danielle Misiak
A 30-40 foot tree falls in backyard of Short Hills, New Jersey home, narrowly missing the guest house by only inches.
NJ Transit
NJ Transit
@SoBrunswickPD / Twitter
Alan Glanzman
@twsbaratta/Instagram
Susan Carlson
Getty Images
@icecoastchef/Instagram
@brianjacobson/Instagram
@hellojermia / Instagram
Edward Taragano
News 4
Andrew Margulis
@reneeisawesome / Instagram
Valeria Montenegro
Valeria Montenegro in Copiague, Long Island, shares with News 4 this view of her street caused by the storm: "The trampoline has been blown out of someone's yard and is now tangled in the power lines and is partially obstructing the street."
A huge tree came crashing down onto a car on 235th Street near Riverdale Avenue in the Bronx.
South Brunswick Police
h-MAG.com
Dan Thropp
Cyndee Marte
Bilzbabe
@hitz_productions
@steph_schlot/Instagram
h-MAG.com
h-MAG.com
@rubenbeaut
@erikabaldino/Instagram
Brendan Sullivan
Justin Cole
News 4
@TonySJersey/Twitter
NBC 4 New York
@donmfil/Twitter
NBC 4 New York
NBC 4 New York
@Bizbee19/Twitter
News 4 New York
News 4
@LamboGTR/Twitter
@crashandburn77/Instagram
News 4
Karishma Dinaram
h-MAG.com
News 4
@bilzbabe/Twitter
@Bizbee19/Twitter
@BobsBoxes/Twitter
@rob_bennett/Twitter
@davidsigal/Twitter
@donmfil/Twitter
@fabulousmoolah/Instagram
@hey_marj/Instagram
@hey_marj/Instagram
@hey_marj/Instagram
h-MAG.com
@TonySJersey/Twitter
Evan Bell
News 4
News 4
@jacquelyngenevieve/Instagram
News 4
NJ Transit
News 4
News 4
News 4
Imelda Urias
@AGreenwaldHQ/Twitter
@Katze910/Twitter
@KCAngel126/Twitter
@mclovin917/Instagram
@miguelgomer/Instagram
@tribecameows/Instagram
Kari Casper
@Jason_Spincycle/Twitter
Adam Michaels
Brian Harmon
NBC New York
Sira Puchoon
Barb Green / Facebook
Carli waits for a car ride on a snowy afternoon in Vernon, New Jersey, on Wednesday, March 7, 2018.
Al Monzo
LaGuardia Airport
NBC New York
New Jersey State Police
Christopher Cahyadi
Flores Frescas
NBC 4 New York
The first nor’easter in the series, on March 2, canceled thousands of flights and wreaked havoc on the region’s commuter rail systems, including Amtrak, which shut down its popular Northeast Corridor. It hit New Jersey and the Hudson Valley hardest, with Sussex County seeing more than 13 inches of snow and parts of Orange County getting more than 9 inches.
The second, on March 7, knocked power out for hundreds of thousands of people in New Jersey and the Hudson Valley. Rockland and Orange counties recorded more than 20 inches and Passaic and Essex counties saw more than 20 inches.
The third, on March 12, grazed most of the tri-state but hammered Long Island and Connecticut with snow. Southampton got more than 18 inches and Newtown recorded 11 inches.
At least three people in the tri-state were killed in the nor’easters: an 11-year-old Hudson Valley boy was hit by a tree during the first; an 88-year-old woman was hit by a tree outside her Hudson Valley home during the second; and an unidentified New Jersey driver was electrocuted when he drove onto a live wire.
