Senate Coup a Tough Bet: Analysis

In a week of slick parliamentary plotting, name-calling and threats over who controls New York's Senate after a shocking power grab Monday, one of the most perplexing questions remains: Who do you root for in this mess?
    
Do you back the "reform coalition?''
    
They say they want to end Democratic control of state government and halt overspending and overtaxing. But one of the first acts by the alliance of all 30 Republicans and two dissident Democrats was to adopt a rule that would prohibit the Democratic conference from duplicating the coup that left Democrats slack-jawed, angry and powerless.
    
As Blair Horner of the New York Public Interest Research Group notes, the coalition and its 32-member majority could accomplish most or all of its policy objectives in floor votes without seizing the leadership posts, the move that shut down the Senate for at least the past week as the end of the scheduled 2009 session nears on June 22.
    
Maybe you can root for the dissident Democrats?
    
They made the apparent takeover possible, scoring a Latino victory by taking the top spot in the Senate and creating unheard of bipartisan leadership. But their elected Senate president, Democratic Sen. Pedro Espada of the Bronx, has outstanding campaign violations, still faces a $60,000 fine, and his pork-barrel grants are being investigated. The other dissident, Sen. Hiram Monserrate, faces a felony assault charge. A court had to step in late Thursday to temporarily bar Espada from the line of succession if Gov. David Paterson left office or went out of state, giving the Senate leader power to pardon himself and Monserrate if convicted.
    
Six months ago, Republicans wanted Monserrate suspended: "It definitely takes the institution down,'' Republican Sen. Martin Golden of Brooklyn said then. "And we don't need that.''
    
How about rooting for the Democratic conference?
    
They are just getting their feet, managing a diverse conference.
 
Under embattled Majority Leader Malcolm Smith, they took some steps to change Albany and end gridlock between the GOP-led Senate and Democrat-led Assembly while advancing progressive causes, including diverting nonviolent drug offenders to treatment instead of prison and, potentially, legalizing same-sex marriage. Yet, hours before Monday's revolt, the Democratic conference, with just a 32-30 edge, announced it would keep 90 percent of $85 million in pork barrel spending for distribution to their districts. The Democrats' defense? That's what Republicans did to us for years.
    
How about the Republicans?
    
They said they need power because their upstate and suburban districts were shut out by New York City Democrats who control the Senate, Assembly and governor's office.
    
But in Albany, with great power come great perks.
    
Republicans, hating the minority status they hadn't experienced for more than four decades, have sought many ways to return to power since they lost the majority in the November elections. The Senate majority controls legislation, collects leadership stipends, gets more resources and lobbyists' donations for campaigns, and gets bigger offices and more patronage.
    
Perhaps rank and file Democrats will save themselves?
    
Black Democratic senators want a black senator and Latinos want to back Espada and Monserrate.
    
Supporters of a landmark bill to legalize same-sex marriage are making it clear they might join a coalition if it brings the bill to the floor. And although the coalition appears to be using the bill as bait to draw supporters, the bill might be voted down, creating a big defeat for the years long effort.
    
Maybe the activists will cut through the power play?
    
With screaming supporters behind him in Queens, the Rev. Al Sharpton warned Monserrate not to mess with the Democratic conference. In Albany Thursday, groups closely aligned with the Democratic conference loudly protested the coalition senators in near mob scene rare even for Albany. They shouted insults at Republicans, Espada and Monserrate, holding signs like "Senate not for sale,'' though one of the groups stood to lose $200,000 in pork barrel grants for their programs from Democrats.
    
How about the governor?
    
Gov. David Paterson played the outraged statesman by repeatedly condemning the "dysfunction and chaos'' that wasted a week of session. Although he says he's not getting involved in Senate affairs, he doesn't accept that the coalition seized power.
    
He admits, however, that he has no power to affect who runs the house. It's odd talk for the head of the state Democratic Party.
    
It also wasn't the way the last governor faced with a Senate power struggle talked.
    
In 1965, Republican Gov. Nelson Rockefeller stepped in when Democrats and Republicans couldn't agree on a majority leader in a struggle that featured U.S. Sen. Robert Kennedy and New York City Mayor Robert Wagner. In the end, Rockefeller got some of his fellow Republicans to switch their votes.
    
"It certainly worked, at least in the short run,'' said Robert Ward of the Rockefeller Institute of Government. "They did get back to business ... one lesson from that is that a powerful governor can have some influence in the Legislature.''
    
Today, both sides say the power struggle must be decided before going back to business.
    
"There are legislators who probably do believe the only way to change the Legislature is topple the leadership,'' said NYPIRG's Horner. "But if you put it all together, it's about power.''