I suspect some of you feel like your fantasy football season is already over after the Tom Brady loss. It's similar to what Gilbert Arenas owners felt like last year, except that it happened much faster. At least Arenas was around for a few games. Anyway, if you're giving up on football already (and even if you're not), here are some team notes to help bide time before the NBA season gets here. Training camps start at the end of this month.
The Draft Guide is coming along and we're shooting for a target date of sometime around Sep. 20. Most of the projections and outlooks are complete, although there are still some serious question marks out there.Like Ben Gordon, Bonzi Wells and several players with first names ending in "arko" if this Zach Randolph trade is going to happen.
Here are 15 teams and I'll cover the second 15 within a week.
Atlanta Hawks
Everyone I've spoken with that has anything to do with the Atlanta Hawks seems to think this is the year Marvin Williams is going to blow up. He's put on a bunch of muscle and has been working on the 3-point shot. I am still concerned about what happens to him if the Hawks ever stumble into a true center, but so far, that hasn't been a concern. Randolph Morris, Zaza Pachulia, Solo Jones.
On a side note, I've heard some pretty good things about free-agent signees Othello Hunter (PF) and Thomas Gardner (SG). So if you're in a super-deep fantasy league and are looking for an edge, sources tell me both guys are legit. But back to Marvin for a second. If they were to actually start a real center, Al Horford would move to PF, Josh Smith would move to SF (his ego would not handle a role off the bench with any hint of class) which would leave Marvin coming off the bench. But I'm going to go with the idea that Josh Smith is right, Marvin is set to bust out this year and Horford will start at center on most nights. And since the Hawks have no real threats at center, Marvin's job is safe. Just keep in mind that Marvin will miss the first game of the season due to a suspension.
Boston Celtics
U.S. & World
Outside of the fact Doc Rivers signed a three-year contract extension, all is quiet with the Celtics. Possibly because every sportswriter in the city is on "Brady Alert" right now. Oh, and rookie Bill Walker is recovered from knee surgery, although I doubt he plays much of a role this season.
Charlotte Hornets
Adam Morrison is scrimmaging after last season's knee surgery, but is understandably quite tentative. I wouldn't recommend drafting him this year. Emeka Okafor has yet to show up for voluntary workouts and scrimmages, but he signed a new deal and should be in Charlotte soon. Jason Richardson sat out yesterday's scrimmages with a shoulder injury, but it's not believed to be serious. Shannon Brown is a new face and will play a reserve role in Charlotte. He is said to be looking good, but there shouldn't be a reason to draft him in most leagues this year.
Chicago Bulls
I'm not sure things could be any quieter in the Windy City. We're still waiting to find out what will become of Ben Gordon, but thus far, there's nothing to report. Gordon still has to decide between accepting the Bulls one-year qualifying offer, or the six-year, $59 million offer that is still on the table. He was said to be negotiating with a team in Russia, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Stay tuned. Beware of Kirk Hinrich this season, as Derrick Rose will at least force a timeshare at point guard, if not steal his job altogether.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs signed C Lorenzen Wright (to back up Zydrunas Ilgauskas) and rookie forward Darnell Jackson. Neither guy should have fantasy value in standard leagues. LeBron James continues to tick off people in Cleveland. He was hugging Jerry Jones and rooting for the Cowboys against the Browns last week, but the people of Cleveland are basically biting their tongues in hopes that he'll stick around in the summer of 2010. I think it's a long shot at this point, but only he knows for sure. Mo Williams is the new point guard and Wally Szczerbiak appears to be the favorite to start at shooting guard, over Delonte West. Wally has some sleeper potential, but he's an injury risk and there may not be enough shots for him with Mo, LeBron and Ilgauskas on the floor.
Rick Carlisle says that we should not "underestimate greatness" when looking at Jason Kidd. While the perception is that he has lost a step and "sucked" for the Mavs last season, the numbers were still there. He averaged just 9.9 points in Dallas, but still posted 6.5 boards, 9.5 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, cut his turnovers down from 3.6 to 2.8 and hit 42.6 percent of his shots. In fantasyland, that's still something pretty special, regardless of the lack of offense. You never drafted Kidd for offense in the first place. It's hard to believe that with those numbers he only produced one triple-double in Dallas. He was not exactly blowing minds in the Olympics and the hoops world is down on Kidd right now, meaning you can probably steal him on draft night. He's still a No. 1 fantasy point guard, obviously, and things are looking up now that the "Little General" is gone.
Carlisle is also hinting that Jerry Stackhouse might be his starting shooting guard. I'm not sure Jason Terry is ready for a role off the bench, but any way you slice it, this looks like the year Terry's production is going to start dropping off. DeSagana Diop is back in Dallas and will also challenge Erick Dampier for the starting center job. Neither guy should probably be considered a No. 1 fantasy center at this point.
Denver Nuggets
There's been no news coming out of Denver lately, but I can't help but get hung up on the problems they're going to have at center with Marcus Camby wearing a Clippers jersey this season. The depth chart is laughable, with Nene, Chris Andersen and Steven Hunter set to the man the paint. In addition, that's going to probably negatively impact Kenyon Martin as well, as he's going to have to handle most of the work on the glass in Denver. His numbers might be up initially, but you have to wonder how long his body is going to hold up. Melo's still in shock that the Nuggets gave Camby away and it looks like they're going to have some serious issues on the defensive end of things this season.
Detroit Pistons
So much for the big shakeup. The Pistons didn't really do anything this summer, other than adding Kwame Brown to the mix. Like I said, they didn't do anything this summer. Rodney Stuckey will be overvalued in every fantasy league. I love him, but he has to find a place to play and I just don't see where that's going to happen, outside of backing up both guard positions. The Pistons are likely going into the season with only 14 players under contract, giving them room to sign a free agent at some point. Amir Johnson could be a guy who develops into a fantasy stud this year. If it happens, it will likely be at the expense of Antonio McDyess. Johnson should be worth a late-round flier in all leagues, as should Jason Maxiell.
Houston Rockets
Rafer Alston has a DWI trial coming in October and still hasn't been cleared to play basketball after ankle surgery. He says he's feeling good, but his status for opening night is still a little unclear. I suspect he'll be ready to go, but Aaron Brooks should get some run this year as well. Shane Battier could be the odd man out with the trade for Ron Artest, so I'd stay away from Battier until the end of your draft. The team still intends to sign PF Carl Landry and back up center Dikembe Mutombo before the start of the season. I love Landry's game, but Luis Scola should be the starter this year. Yao Ming should be back up to speed after slogging his way through Olympic games, but I am very leery of using a Top 24 pick on him this year. I've generously got him at 68 games, but that's very optimistic. In case you forgot, he's played just 57, 48 and 55 games in each of the past three seasons.
Golden State Warriors
Marcus Williams will be a huge sleeper pick this year with Monta Ellis' season in doubt. I suspect Ellis will play at some point, but we don't know enough about how his body will respond to surgery. I projected him at just 35 games, so we'll see. Stephen Jackson is going to have a HUGE year, in my opinion, and should be an elite fantasy player - if you can handle the shooting percentage and turnovers. Other guys to keep an eye on are backup point guard C.J. Watson (in case Williams can't handle the job), SG Marco Belinelli, PF Brandan Wright and rookie Anthony Randolph, who should back up Corey Maggette. Kosta Perovic, a backup center, appears to be heading to Spain. That would mean Ronny Turiaf and Al Harrington will likely both be playing a lot of center behind Andris Biedrins.
There are rumors that the Warriors might be interested in moving Al Harrington for Jamaal Tinsley. I am not sold on this one, as Harrington has already had a couple stints with the Pacers and Tinsley's just not as good as he is. There is also speculation that Don Nelson would have interest in Marquis Daniels. While these are just rumors, with the injury suffered by Monta Ellis, the Warriors are likely looking for another point guard. The Pacers are prepared to let Tinsley sit at home until they can trade him. Danny Granger and the Pacers are communicating, but the talks haven't been serious enough to give any indication that a contract extension is close to getting done. If an extension doesn't happen, Granger will become a restricted free agent and the Pacers will have the right to match any offer he receives. Granger will be a popular third-round target in fantasy leagues, and could even be worth a late second-round pick. And the fact he'll likely be playing for a contract doesn't hurt either. I also like Troy Murphy this year, as he'll be able to focus on playing PF full time. Look for a bounce back season and consider him a sleeper. The starting center job is up for grabs between Jeff Foster and Rasho Nesterovic, but the two will be locked into a timeshare all year.
Los Angeles Clippers
Cuttino Mobley appears to be a strong bust candidate this year with Eric Gordon nipping at his heels. Avoid him on draft day. I'm not sure how Chris Kaman and Camby are going to fare together, but both players should still be high-quality draft picks in fantasy leagues. I've got Camby projected at 9.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.4 blocks, while Kaman comes in at 14.9 points, 9.8 boards and 1.9 blocks. Let me know what you think about that, as the whole thing just confuses me. Al Thornton should be the starter at small forward and appears to be primed for a big year. I've got him projected at 15.8 points and 5.9 boards - putting him somewhere close to No. 20 on the small forwards list.
Los Angeles Lakers
Andrew Bynum has reportedly looked fantastic in scrimmages and should be fully healthy by the start of the season. And if you want to play some Halo against him on XBbox Live, his handle is AndrewBynumXT. With a starting five of Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant (who is not going to have finger surgery after all), Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol and Bynum, someone's numbers are going to take a hit. Gasol's rebounds will be down slightly, Kobe's points may be down slightly and Odom remains a bit of mystery. Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic will battle for the role of sixth man. I like Ariza here, as Walton is coming off ankle surgery and Radmanovic just isn't that good. Jordan Farmar should see an increased role off the bench, making Fisher a possible fantasy liability, while I would be surprised if Odom's numbers don't take a fairly decent hit this year. If I was drafting today, I would take LeBron at No. 1, Kobe at No. 2 and either Chris Paul or Amare Stoudemire at No. 3.
The Lakers also signed guard Brandon Heath, who is the all-time leading scorer in San Diego State history. He's also the school's all-time leader in steals and 3-pointers made, and comes in third all time in assists. He played in France last year and seems to have as much upside as anyone. But that doesn't mean you should be drafting him this year.
Memphis Grizzlies
Marc Gasol may start at center for the Grizzlies this season and will be worth a late fantasy pick as a backup C. There's been a ton of talk about Marko Jaric and Darko Milicic going to the Knicks for Zach Randolph, but the trade makes little sense for the Grizz, who are in the midst of a youth movement. I have no idea what Antoine Walker's role will be in Memphis, and adding Zach to that mix would make things even messier. Right now, Hakim Warrick looks golden to me, but that would change if Z-Bo comes over. Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry are going to share time at point guard, while O.J. Mayo looks like the starting shooting guard. They also signed Hamed Haddadi, as the Grizzlies now look more culturally diverse than the Raptors with Darko, Marko, Gasol and Haddadi.
Miami Heat
Rookie Mario Chalmers and Memphis' Darrell Arthur both somehow escaped a suspension, but were fined $20,000 for their weed/chicks antics at NBA orientation. Chalmers had a chance to start at point guard and could still end up with the job at some point, but it looks like Chris Quinn is the favorite now. Of course, he still has to accept the Heat's contract offer before that becomes official. As Greg Cote of the Miami Herald told me recently, "There's not a snowflake's chance in Hell" that Marcus Banks will start at point guard on opening night. That's a pretty strong take, but chances are that he's right. The Heat quietly signed Jamaal Magloire this summer. He initially looked like nothing more than a back up center, but he could win the starting job with a strong camp - Mark Blount fans beware. Udonis Haslem has been pegged as the starting power forward by most folks, but I still think Michael Beasley is going to be thrown into the fire sooner than later.
As I've already said, Dwyane Wade is BACK! He should be targeted at No. 5 in fantasy drafts, and could be taken higher if you think he'll stay healthy this season. I projected him at 74 games, 26.8 ppg, 7.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game this season, putting him just behind Kobe in the shooting guard rankings. As for Shawn Marion, he should still be a solid fantasy player, but I'm not sure he's still in the elite category in Miami. I could be wrong, but the days of using a Top 6 or 7 pick on him could be over.
I'll be back soon with notes on the second half of the league. I haven't had any mock drafts yet, but they're coming later in the month. I'll break them down once the results are in.
