From Green Bay to Gang Green

Some people consider Brett Favre the greatest quarterback in NFL history. But he's no longer even the best fantasy quarterback that plays in his home stadium. Favre should help the Jets' playoff-ready roster win, but fantasy owners expecting Favre to put up top-10 quarterback numbers will be disappointed. Favre is turning 39 years old in October, and the decline that we saw between 2005-2006 is likely to show up again in Gotham.

Let's look at all the differences between Green Bay and New York to see why his numbers should decline.

System

This is the biggest reason. Favre has played in a West Coast style offense since he worked under Mike Holmgren. Now he must learn Brian Schottenheimer's versatile and complex scheme over the next four weeks. The Jets have been a run-heavy team the last two years. ProFootball Prospectus points out that they were the third slowest paced offense in the league last season. The Jets will get more aggressive by tailoring the offense to Favre's skills, but the offensive line is still built to maul with Alan Faneca, not pass protect. The Jets will be more balanced than the Packers.

Favre propped up his stats in 2005-2006 by leading the league in pass attempts both seasons. That will not happen in New York, who won't get as pass-wacky as Mike Sherman and Mike McCarthy in Green Bay.

To see where Favre ranks on Rotoworld's Top 200, check out our online draft guide.

Talent

Favre has a terrific of starting receivers in New York with Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. My projections for both Jets receivers were already optimistic, and they will inch up with the arrival of Favre. Cotchery is like a tougher Greg Jennings, and Favre should help allow him to make great plays after the catch. He's a sneaky mid-round WR2 pick, and Coles isn't far behind. There are some concerns about his Coles' nagging injuries, but he's only 31 and caught at least 70 passes for five straight seasons before last year.

Despite the solid starters, the Jets receiver crew is still a downgrade from Green Bay. Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson comprise one of the deepest receiver groups in the league. The Jets have no depth: Chansi Stuckey, with zero career receptions, is their third receiver. The tight end groups on both are both solid, but a wash. (Chris Baker and Dustin Keller should see their numbers rise in New York, but may cancel each other out in fantasy leagues.)

I'd still take the Packers offensive line over the Jets. Continuity is one of the keys to building a great line, and the Jets are trying to make their line with pricey free agent signings. That usually doesn't work, and the right side of New York's line looks especially shaky.

Time

Favre doesn't have much time to learn the Jets' system and get to know his teammates' strengths and weaknesses. He is running out of time to get into football shape after missing an entire offseason. And, of course, there is Father Time. Favre's magical season at 38 was truly rare, but repeating those excellent numbers on a new team at 39 is unheard of.

Where Favre Ranks

I sprinkled some magic Favre dust on his new projections available in our online draft, and he still only came out as the 16th ranked fantasy quarterback. The Jets were given more pass attempts than years past. Favre's yards-per-attempt and touchdown numbers were made closer to his career norms, rather than the ugly numbers he put up between 2005-2006. It all added up to 3,605 yards, 23 scores, and eighteen touchdowns. That was good enough to rank him right below Marc Bulger, and one spot ahead of old friend Aaron Rodgers. Expect Favre to get taken earlier than that in most drafts, and don't expect many Rotoworld loyalists to own him.

Before taking the plunge on Favre, remember what your thoughts about him in your draft room last year. Remember the 38 touchdowns to 47 interceptions he threw in the two years prior. Finally, remember that this isn't baseball, where you can change teams and expect similar statistics. Changing teams in the NFL is hard at any age, even for a legend. No amount of fawning media coverage about Favre playing the game like a kid will change that.

Editor's Note: Favre is now in play in the NBC Fantasy Football Championship. Tom Kessenich looks at quarterback strategy in the contest.