Fantasy leaguers are obsessed with Tremendous Upside Potential. Given the choice between a safe 1,000 yards (Donald Driver) and a riskier player who could get 1,250 (Calvin Johnson), we'll take the risk. We want the potential breakouts, the boom-or-busts. The following rankings should only feed that obsession.
I try to avoid overusing the word "upside", but I probably overuse "high ceiling" just as much. A player with a high ceiling of production has almost limitless potential, like the aforementioned Megatron. A player with a "high floor" like Matt Hasselbeck is a safer option.
The best draft strategy is to mix in steady players with high ceiling picks. The deeper into the draft you go, the more risk you should be willing to take. We're looking for difference makers.
DISCLAIMER: The following position rankings are ranked completely on what players have the highest ceiling. These are not Rotoworld's rankings! Often they aren't even close. (Save the emails, please.) The rankings ignore injury and job security risk. They ignore the boom or bust nature of some players like Lee Evans. They are rankings of every player as if everything went perfect for them this season. (When I say everything going right, I'm not including injuries to teammates. That's assuming too much.)
So who has the highest ceiling? Let's find out. The wideouts, tight ends, and a brand new industry Mock Draft will post Wednesday.
To find out Rotoworld's real rankings, projections, and tiers, check out the Rotoworld online draft guide. We made over 50 changes to projections on Monday alone.
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1. Tom Brady: 50 touchdowns are the highest ceiling ever.
2. Peyton Manning: 49 used to be.
3. Tony Romo
4. Drew Brees
5. Carson Palmer: Palmer actually moves down a few spots in this exercise
6. Vince Young: No one else could come close to his rushing potential. He already was a top-five QB5.
7. Derek Anderson: As ifBrady Quinn doesn't exist.
8. Jay Cutler
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Matt Schaub: Sleeper pick for 4,000 yards
11. Ben Roethlisberger: 2007 was his ceiling; low attempts hurt him.
12. Matt Hasselbeck
13. David Garrard: The definition of a low ceiling and a high floor.
14. Eli Manning: Similar to Garrard.
15. Aaron Rodgers: With his weapons, more upside than Favre.
16. Brett Favre
17. Marc Bulger: More downside than upside at this point, which is sad.
18.Tarvaris Jackson: Don't laugh. While we don't rank him in our top-20, a healthy 19 games with 500 rushing yards from Jackson would be huge.
20. Jon Kitna: Can't argue with the receivers.
21. Matt Leinart: See Kitna.
22. Jake Delhomme
23. J.T. O'Sullivan: It won't happen, but 16 games under Mike Martz would equal a lot of garbage yards.
24. Jason Campbell: Steady growth doesn't equate to excitement in this format.
25. Philip Rivers
1. Adrian Peterson: His ceiling is in the record books.
2. LaDainian Tomlinson: He's already in the record books.
3. Frank Gore: TONS of ifs, but there is an MVP season buried within somewhere
4. Steven Jackson
5. Brian Westbrook: 2007 was the ceiling . and an awesome one.
6. Brandon Jacobs: Has chance to score 15+ times.
7. Marshawn Lynch
8. Joseph Addai: Highest floor in the league other than Tomlinson.
9. Marion Barber: Hasn't reached his peak yet
10. Ryan Grant
11. Clinton Portis
12. Larry Johnson: Brodie Croyle and Kansas City's offensive line can only go so right.
13. Selvin Young: He gets a huge boost in these rankings. He won't stay healthy all season, but he'll be a top-15 talent when he does.
14. Reggie Bush: PPR ceiling is in the top-five.
15. Jamal Lewis
16. Laurence Maroney: Probably never going to be a 300-carry type, but touchdown potential is up there.
17. Jonathan Stewart: Still a three-down power back with potential to dominate touches.
18. Maurice Jones-Drew: Needs Fred Taylor to get hurt to realize potential, which we can't here.
19. Darren McFadden: Boom or busty pick with excellent skills, but committee dims his potential.
20. Willis McGahee: Ray Rice is draining his TUP.
21. Ronnie Brown: It looks ugly now, but there is still a lot of talent there and it's a long season.
22. Michael Turner: His long running plays could help make up for Atlanta's offense.
23. Matt Forte
24. Earnest Graham
25. Willie Parker
26. Thomas Jones: A classic high floor, low ceiling player.
27. Rudi Johnson: Boom or bust and we're heavily leaning towards bust.
28. Kevin Smith: I don't rank him nearly this high or trust him, but the opportunity is there.
29. LenDale White: Could score plenty behind an underrated line, but Chris Johnson lowers his ceiling.
30. Chris Johnson: Ceiling is Reggie Bush's rookie year, with a better yards-per-carry.
See how far Johnson has climbed in the Rotoworld online draft guide. We made over 50 changes to projections on Monday alone.
