As the Favre Turns

Way back in the dark ages of July, Aaron Rodgers was one of my favorite value picks at quarterback. Those days are over. Brett Favre is back with the Packers, and some clarity is finally emerging in Green Bay. We think.

Sure, a trade is still possible. Perhaps Favre will change his mind and re-retire, then un-retire again, and then Ted Thompson's head will explode, making Lambeau field too slippery to play on. Barring all that, the only reasonable assumption is that Brett Favre will be starting in Green Bay on September 8. For the Packers.

Where Favre Fits

Ideally, fantasy drafts are held in late August and early September. By then, the Packers starting quarterback should officially be announced. This story isn't ending anytime soon, but by then fences can be mended, limiting the amount of uncertainty inherent in drafting Favre.

That doesn't mean owners should expect Favre to repeat his 2007 numbers. In the two seasons before last year's revival, Favre threw 38 touchdowns and 47 interceptions. His weapons and familiarity with Mike McCarthy's offense is undoubtedly better now, but he's also turning 39 years old and missed most of the off-season.

Favre is set up for relative success in McCarthy's scheme, but he'll face some brand new risks. For the first time ever, Favre could have slight job security questions. If the Packers struggle for any reason, it's conceivable that Favre could be benched. While that's unlikely, it's fair to say that the organization's reverence for Favre's "legacy" has waned in recent weeks.

Favre no longer belongs in the discussion of the top-five quarterbacks in fantasy and reality. Assuming he gets to Week 1 as the starter, we'd slot him as our twelth-ranked quarterback, behind guys like David Garrard and Matt Hasselbeck, but ahead of Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, and Vince Young. He's a borderline QB1.

Editor's Note: See Favre's new rank and projection in Rotoworld's draft guide.

As Favre knows, you have to start every season back at the bottom of the mountain. It was likely one of the reasons he decided to give up the game in March. And as many aging quarterbacks before him have found, Favre may find it difficult to reach such great heights again.

Mr. Rodgers' New 'Hood: Waiver Wire?

Aaron Rodgers has all the tools to be successful once he plays. He also has a tool blocking his path to get on the field. It would be an upset if Brett Favre is the backup in Week 1. It would be an even greater upset for Rodgers to keep the starting job all season, even if he won the quarterback competition in camp. Until Favre is off the roster, Rodgers is a last-round flier in deep leagues. At best. He's Kurt Warner without the history of production; an interesting backup who remains second fiddle to a newsmaking teammate.

Effect on the rest of the Packers

Don't get carried away projecting huge jumps for the Green Bay receivers if Favre wins the starting job. His return is good news for old buddies Donald Driver and Donald Lee, but we already projected Green Bay to be a fine passing offense. We'll give some of the receivers modest bumps, but that's primarily because the chances of Brian Brohm playing for the Packers this season are vanishing.

Until next episode of As the Favre turns, in which all this news will inevitably turn around, we're signing off. Look for some larger scale draft trends in a draft analysis column Tuesday.