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10-Year Yield Rises to Highest Level in More Than 3 Years

Source: NYSE
  • Two sets of inflation data are due out this week, with the March consumer price index scheduled for release on Tuesday.
  • The March producer price index is set to follow on Wednesday.
  • There are no major economic data releases due out on Monday.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield topped 2.79% on Monday, reaching its highest level in three years.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 2.793% on Monday, or its highest point since January 2019 when the 10-year yielded as high as 2.799%. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.

Rates on the 5-year and 30-year rates also rose; the 5-year yield ticked higher by nearly 3 basis points points to 2.785%. The 30-year yield climbed 6 basis points to 2.806%. Recently, the 5-year yield traded above its 30-year counterpart, triggering a so-called inversion.

Treasury yields have been on the rise recently, with concerns that rising inflation and the Federal Reserve's plans to aggressively tighten monetary policy could slow economic growth.

These fears have caused Treasury yields to invert recently, with investors selling out of shorter-dated government bonds in favor of long-dated debt, which has historically occurred prior to recessions. However, investors have been careful to point out that the yield curve inversion is not a guarantee of a recession and that this signal can flash red as many as two years before an economic downturn takes hold.

Paul Jackson, global head of asset allocation research at Invesco, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday that while the effects of rising costs are starting to be felt in the economy, he doesn't think a recession is in the cards this year.

He expects the global economy to see around 3% growth, rather than the 4% he had previously forecast, but added that he believes recessionary fears are something that "will come back from time to time this year and that we will worry about."

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday that she still believes the Fed can get inflation under control without causing major damage to the economy.

Two sets of inflation data are due out this week, with the March consumer price index scheduled for release on Tuesday and last month's producer price index slated to follow on Wednesday.

There are no major economic data releases due out on Monday.

Investors will also be keeping an eye on developments in Ukraine. Russia's invasion of the country has caused volatility in oil and other commodities markets, which has, in turn, disturbed stocks.

CNBC's Jesse Pound contributed to this market report.

Correction: A previous version of this story misspelled Mester's last name.

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