Picking the winners in the first round of the NBA playoffs:
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Atlanta vs. No. 8 Brooklyn
The Hawks were the surprise team of the NBA, going from 38 wins in 2014 to 60 wins this season, and going from barely making the playoffs last season as the No. 8 seed to running away with the East this season. Although they’re without ace defender Thabo Sefolosha, who broke his ankle in an altercation with New York City police outside a nightclub last week, that won’t catch up with them in this series. The Nets were erratic underachievers almost all season and needed help from Memphis on the last night of the season to get the No. 8 seed. The 38-win Nets are bigger, but slower, less athletic and not nearly as cohesive as the Hawks. If Brooklyn wins even a game, that will tell you more about the Hawks than anything else.
Prediction: Atlanta in 4.
No. 2 Cleveland vs. No. 7 Boston
LeBron James left Miami last July for the expressed purpose of bringing Cleveland a title. After a shaky first quarter of the season, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that James at least gets the Cavs into the NBA Finals this June, which would be his fifth straight trip to the championship round. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are in the playoffs for the first time, but the East is there for the taking because top-seeded Atlanta doesn’t scare anyone and the Bulls had an injury-marred, disjointed season. The first step for James and ex-Knicks J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov should be easy, with the young, rebuilding Celtics of Brad Stevens getting into the playoffs, despite posting a losing record (40-42).
Prediction: Cleveland in 4.
No. 3 Chicago vs. No. 6 Milwaukee
The Bulls have never put it all together this season, largely due to injuries and inconsistent play from former MVP Derrick Rose and All-Star big man Joakim Noah. But they drew the best first-round opponent possible in getting a young Bucks team that will have a hard time contending with the likes of Pau Gasol and Jimmy Butler. Chicago should have too much size and experience for Jason Kidd’s troops, who lost 18 of their last 28 games but never fell lower than sixth because they’re in the East, which has two teams with losing records in the post-season.
Prediction: Chicago in 4.
No. 4 Toronto vs. No. 5 Washington
The Wizards started off 31-15 and everyone was thinking that the Wizards were for real. But since Feb. 1 they went only 15-19 record -- the worst record in that span of any of the 16 playoff teams. That cost Washington its first homecourt advantage in a series since, believe it or not, 1979. Toronto also started off strong, going 37-17, and winning more games against Atlanta (three) than any other team in the NBA. But the Raptors also peaked before the All-Star break and somehow failed to win 50 games, mainly because of Kyle Lowry’s back problems. Their 12-16 mark over the final 29 games cost the Raptors an easier first round series, with Washington having the size, playoff experience and a talented playmaker in John Wall to make for a tough matchup.
Prediction: Toronto in 7.
Western Conference
Sports
No. 1 Golden State vs. No. 8 New Orleans
Did Steve Kerr make the right choice or what? He passed on a chance to coach the Knicks and instead decided to coach the Warriors, who only set a franchise record for wins (67) and dominated the ultra-competitive West, winning the conference by a staggering 11 games, while getting an MVP-caliber season from Stephen Curry. The Warriors’ longest losing streak all season: Two games. By winning on the final night of the season, the Pelicans beat out Oklahoma City and are in their first playoff series with Anthony Davis. Everyone thinks a team with size can give the Warriors a tough time. Well, the Pelicans have quality size in Davis and Omir Asik, but nobody is picking against the Warriors in this series.
Prediction: Golden State in 4.
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 7 Dallas
The basketball gods didn’t give us a Cleveland-Miami first-round series, where LeBron James would have had to get through his old team to advance. But they didn’t do too badly in the West, where the Rockets and Mavs have the closest thing the NBA has to a good old-fashioned blood feud. Dallas owner Mark Cuban and Houston GM Daryl Morey have long launched verbal missiles at each other, most recently when Chandler Parsons bolted the Rockets last summer as a free agent for the Mavs. If MVP candidate James Harden gets the usual whistles and makes it a one-man parade to the foul line, Cuban might just set a record for drawing fines during a playoff series. Dallas was only 14-13 in its last 27 games as Rajon Rondo continued to struggle, while Harden drove the Rockets to a 23-4 mark to close out the season. That says a lot right there.
Prediction: Houston in 7.
No. 3 L.A. Clippers vs. No. 6 San Antonio
The Clippers won 14 of their last 15 games, losing only in the last weeks to the Warriors. But they probably drew the toughest opening-round assignment by drawing the defending champion Spurs. With last year’s Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard assuming a bigger role, San Antonio won 21 of its last 25 games. But by losing their finale at New Orleans, they went from getting the No. 2 seed to perhaps not having the homecourt edge at all in the playoffs. That could prevent them from getting to their third straight Finals and repeating as champs for the first time in the Tim Duncan Era. Chris Paul had an MVP-caliber season for the Clips, but he’s only 21-32 in playoff games and has yet to make a conference finals. Expect the Spurs to put Clips C DeAndre Jordan on the foul line in tight games because he made only 39.7% of his foul shots and Gregg Popovich loves to use the Hack-a-Shaq strategy against weak foul shooters. He’s used it against Jordan in the past.
Prediction: San Antonio in 6.
No. 4 Portland vs. No. 5 Memphis
Because Memphis wound up with 55 wins, and Portland had 51, the Grizzlies get the homecourt edge for the series, while Portland gets the higher seed because the Blazers won the Northwest Division. Memphis was shaky in the final two months, posting a 14-13 record, as Mike Conley Jr., Tony Allen, All-Star center Marc Gasol and Jeff Green all suffered injuries at one point or another. Conley was shaky after the All-Star break (13 ppg on 42% shooting) and might only be 80% for the playoffs with a foot injury that limits his ability to make cuts. Portland carries a 4-game losing streak into the playoffs, longest among the 16 teams. Its chances of making a deep run ended weeks ago when Wes Matthews went down with a season-ending Achilles injury. Since Matthews went down, they’ve gone 10-12 without their top perimeter defender and best long-range shooter.
Prediction: Memphis in 6.
Longtime New York columnist Mitch Lawrence continues to write about pro basketball, as he’s done for the last 22 years. His columns for NBCNewYork.com on the Knicks, Brooklyn Nets and the NBA, along with other major sports, will appear twice weekly. Follow him on Twitter.
