Welcome. My name is P. Terrence McGovern. Each week I will make suggestions in this column to help you hone your $100,000 Fantasy Challenge ($100KFC) strategy. After you win the $100K, we'll split the money 50-50.
My first suggestion is that you read or re-read the rules of the game. It will only take a minute and it might enable you to make more sense of the verbiage that follows. And then, if this $100KFC game sounds like fun to you, click here to sign up.
Now, when playing fantasy sports, there are essentially three factors that will contribute to your decision-making process: conventional wisdom, gut, and statistics.
Let's take a second to define our terms:
Conventional wisdom: a term used to describe mildly inane, inoffensive ideas or explanations that are constantly repeated and accepted as fact because finding the real answer is difficult and most of us are some combination of busy and lazy.
Gut: The mythical part of a stomach that is smarter than the brain. For many, a reliance on gut precludes a reliance on intellectual rigor. Gut is extremely sensitive to the ebb and flow of a sport fan's allegiances.
Stats: The conventional wisdom regarding stats is that only nerds do it, but my gut tells me that everyone should give it a try. After all, stats can be used to "prove" nearly any point you wish to make. Ever heard an NFL commentator say, "When running back X gets at least Y carries, his team wins?" While this statement may seem meaningless because the direction of the causation is incorrect, it's a "stat" and therefore must be important and relevant.
Sports
Here is a pie graph to visually illustrate how I make my fantasy football decisions:
Seeing a pie graph always makes me hungry. That green slice looks especially tasty (key lime, maybe?). Anyway. A little farther down in the column, I'll suggest picks for each position that embody the above decision-making elements. But first, I want to discuss some general things you should keep in mind when selecting players. In no particular order, choose players for week one that are healthy, have a track record and a clearly defined role, are in the top twelve fantasy players at their position, and are playing a weak defensive team.
Pick players that are healthy
Peyton Manning is probably healthy, but why risk blowing your one chance to use Manning when he's playing on a throbbing, sac-lacking knee? Following this advice will also have you avoid Braylon Edwards, Tom Brady, Chad Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Derek Anderson, and Wes Welker, among others.
Pick players that have a track record and a clearly defined role
Will Maurice Morris or Julius Jones get the majority of the carries in Seattle? Will Andre Hall poach Selvin Young's goal line carries? Will Chester Taylor prevent Purple Jesus from getting enough yards to attain his goal of becoming the all-time rushing leader? Best to let these and other questions be answered before you take a risk on them.
Pick players in the top twelve fantasy players at their position
I suggest you find a printable grid of the NFL schedule. Then use your think-muffin to figure out which games to save your stud muffins for. (Yes, it is okay to end sentences with a preposition.)
My guess is that trying to plan for all twelve weeks will ultimately end up making you go crazy. Circumstances change quickly in the NFL. Players get injured, benched for poor play, or test positive for marijuana. Why save Adrian Peterson (MN) for week eleven when he might be injured by week five?
My suggestion is to simplify things by fifty percent: for now, only consider the first six weeks of the season. That means for week one you will only be picking from a pool of players that contains the top six TEs, six Ks, twelve QBs, twelve RBs, and eighteen WRs. The argument for this simplification is that it is best to wait for some of the injuries and uncertainties to sort themselves out before trying to be clever.
Pick players that are playing a "weak" defensive team
While conventional wisdom states that you should start a WR that goes against a "weak" secondary, my gut tells me that it is nearly impossible to predict which secondary will play well from year to year. The stats indicate that my gut is right: conventional wisdom held that the Saints would have a great pass defense in 2007 (after all, they had the third best pass defense in 2006), but the Saints gave up the third most passing yards in 2007. Will they be terrible again in 2008? Well, they devoted their entire off-season to improving their defense, including trading up in the draft to get defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis in the first round. Will it work? I have no idea and neither does anyone else.
There are, however, a few teams that were terrible last year and don't seem to have done much to improve in the off-season. Take Atlanta. The team is pretty much a mess. Last year their defense gave up the fourth most total yards, they were fourth worst in time of possession, their win/loss record was 4-12, and with three games remaining in their 2007 season, their coach quit via memo . It would appear that their defense could be on the field a lot again in 2008: last year, replacing Michael Vick with Joey Harrington didn't work so well (Harrington just got cut) and this year they'll gamble on rookie Matt Ryan. Other teams that are likely to struggle defensively this year include the Dolphins, 49ers, and Rams.
Here are some specific players that may appeal to you for week one:
Quarterbacks
Top Twelve Fantasy Quarterbacks: Brady, Romo, Brees, Manning, Palmer, Big Ben, Anderson, McNabb, Hasselbeck, Cutler, Favre, Garrard.
Conventional wisdom: Tony Romo - I have fewer questions about Romo than nearly every QB on the above list. Go with the risk-averse pick in the first week.
Gut: Brett Favre - Favre, in his first game as a Jet, has a huge game and leads his team to victory over the hated Dolphins. It'd be a great story, wouldn't it?
Stats: Donovan McNabb - He's a healthy, top twelve ranked fantasy QB who starts against a weak Rams team. If only he had a healthy WR to catch his passes.
Wide Receivers
Top Eighteen Fantasy Wide Receivers: Moss, Owens, Wayne, Edwards, Johnson, Fitzgerald, Colston, Houshmandzadeh, Holt, Smith, Burress, Marshall, Welker, Johnson, Williams, Jennings, Holmes.
Conventional wisdom: Santonio Holmes - Go with a solid WR with a clearly defined role who is playing a weak defense.
Gut: Eddie Royal - Brandon Marshall is only going to be suspended for one game. Cash in before this window of opportunity closes and start the talented rookie.
Stats: Andre Johnson - Last season, each of the top six ranked WRs in fantasy scored at least one touchdown in week one. Johnson is certainly a top six WR, and plus it makes sense to get a start out of him before either he or Schaub gets injured.
Running Backs
Top Twelve Fantasy Running Backs: Tomlinson, Peterson (MN), Jackson, Westbrook, Addai, Barber, Gore, Portis, Lynch, Johnson, Grant, Lewis.
Conventional wisdom: Marian Barber - Get him in there before rookie Felix Jones gets up to speed and begins to poach some of his carries.
Gut: Darren McFadden - D. Dog busts loose on Denver and becomes the most exciting running back to watch run in a long time, or at least since AP (MN) last year.
Stats: LaDainian Tomlinson -Highly ranked running backs usually score lots of fantasy points when their team wins. San Diego is currently a nine point favorite over Carolina.
Tight Ends
Top Six Fantasy Tight Ends: Witten, Winslow, Gates, Gonzalez, Cooley, Clark.
Conventional wisdom: Jason Witten - Tight end production is notoriously hard to predict. Don't mess around week one. Take a safe choice, someone who plays for a strong team, is playing against a weak team, and is one of the top-rated fantasy tight ends.
Gut: Tony Scheffler - With Brandon Marshall suspended, Cutler is going to have to throw to someone. Why not Scheffler, who caught 33 passes for 388 yards and 3 touchdowns in the second half of the season last year? Sure, Scheffler was behind Nate Jackson on the depth chart for most of preseason, but despite this ominous article, I'm not worried.
Stats: Jason Witten (again) - He caught 6 passes for 166 yards and a touchdown in week one last year. By the power of stats, he'll have a similar line week one of this year.
Defenses
Top Six Fantasy Defenses: Minnesota, San Diego, New England, Green Bay, Chicago, Dallas.
Conventional wisdom: Minnesota - It is nearly impossible to pick which defense will be a good fantasy defense. Go with the safest option. This year, that would be Minnesota, which is the number one ranked preseason fantasy defense. They face the Aaron Rogers-led Packers in week one.
Gut: Seattle - This defense is going to be sneaky-good this year. Get them against Buffalo.
Stats: Detroit - David Carrstarted the 2002 season opener. The Texans went 4-12 and Carr was sacked 76 times. Since then, no rookie quarterback has started a season opener. Until now: Matt Ryan was named the season-opening starter. Stats never lie, and so this means that Atlanta will go 4-12 and Ryan will be sacked 76 times. Detroit gets first crack at him.
Kickers
Top Six Fantasy Kickers: Folk, Gostkowski, Bironas, Graham, Kaeding, Crosby.
Conventional wisdom: Stephen Gostkowski - If the team scores a lot, the kicker scores a lot. The Patriots, favored by 16.5 points, should score a lot.
Gut: Rob Bironas - Doesn't it feel as though Vince Young and the Titans can only score in multiples of three?
Stats: Nick Folk - Hey, he was the highest scoring kicker last year, and that means something. Right Neil Rackers (who was the number one fantasy kicker in 2005 and then was eighth best in 2006)?
The Sunday Night Football (SNF) Bonus Player (Colts vs. Bears)
Conventional wisdom states that you should usually pick a QB in this slot because QBs score the most fantasy points in this format. My gut tells me that conventional wisdom is right. In an attempt to bring some amount of rigor to this casual observation, I went back and calculated how many points the top-ranked (12 QBs, 12 RBs, and 18 WRs) fantasy players scored on average in their week one games last year. Here is the result:
Running Backs: 11.1 points
Quarterbacks: 17.0 points
Wide Receivers: 13.5 points
So quarterbacks actually did score more points in week one last year. The top six RBs were surprisingly weak (12.6 points) and the top six WRs were surprisingly strong (17.2 points). Bottom line is that a top twelve QB will get you about 17 points, which is a handful of points more than the top WR and RB options. And yes, the sample size is small.
Conventional wisdom: Joseph Addai - Don't risk relying on Manning's knee. You're lucky to have a solid RB option this week in Addai. Use it.
Gut: Rex Grossman - Rex might be the only quarterback in this history of the NFL to get booed by his own fans on family night. My gut says that Kyle Orton throws four picks-each of which gets returned for a touchdown-and gets benched, and then Grossman takes the helm and leads the team to the greatest comeback victory of all time, and Bears fans boo Grossman the entire time anyway.
Stats: Peyton Manning - The stats say take a QB, so how can I ignore them? And don't give me that "injured knee" business. The Colts wouldn't have cut every QB not named Manning or Sorgi if they were really worried about their QB situation. And plus, he's Peyton Manning. Never a good idea to bet againstPeyton Manning. Just ask "Peyton Manning."
That's all for now. Good luck making your picks and I'll see you next week. Same time, same place.
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