Climate Change: Scientists Proving Theory as Fact

Though some are skeptical about climate change, scientists say its effects on global temperatures are undeniable

What to Know

  • 2016 was the hottest year on record, with a global average temp nearly two degrees higher than the mid-20th century mean, climatologists say
  • The world's oceans are a culprit in the lull of rising global temperatures, as the waters attract heat from the air and store it
  • 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all recorded higher-than average global temperatures compared to years past

Erica Grow is an AMS-certified meteorologist for NBC 4 New York's Storm Team 4. She sits on the American Meteorological Society's Board on Enterprise Communication. 

It happened again — the Earth shattered another historic temperature record.

According to a joint report from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), last year was the warmest on record, with a global average temperature of 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit above the mid-20th century mean.

This marks the third year in a row the planet has set a new record for global average temperature since NASA and NOAA began collecting measurements in 1880. Last year's record is even more surprising, since the "Super El Niño" that was attributed to 2015's record warmth ended last spring.  

Despite a third straight year of record temperatures around the globe, some are still skeptical about climatologist claims that Earth's atmospheric conditions are changing.

Scientists have proven that their theories are fact: our planet isn't just heating up, humans are making a sizable contribution to the warming process. Recent findings in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report note the clear impact of human influence on the environment and many of the "unprecedented" changes.

It's been confirmed that human activity is causing a rise in global average temperature at breakneck pace. Yet the number of dissenting voices could create a real controversy. How is this possible? The complexity of the global warming process and the many ways it manifests itself are to blame.

A crucial element to understanding global warming is recognizing that the process isn't linear. The world's oceans, which cover about 70 percent of Earth's surface, are a very efficient heat sink — natural oscillations cause our oceans to attract atmospheric heat and release it into the air in varying amounts. These oscillations can last for months, but others can persist for decades at a time. 

Research has shown the oceans' capacity to ingest heat from air is a culprit in the notorious "pause" of the rise of global temperatures from 1999 to 2013, when temperatures were still warmer than the 20th century average. 

Oscillations are a natural and ever-present part of our climate, something that's sparked suspicions as to whether our current warmth is just a part of Earth's natural ebb and flow.

However, a closer look shows this is virtually impossible. Climatologists have created models that accurately replicate the temperature system since 1760. When these models are tested with the exclusion of industrial emissions, the global average temperature actually drops as time goes on, which means that if it were not for humans, Earth would be in a cooling period.

The advances in climate modeling spanning decades are nothing short of remarkable. Today’s models can recreate conditions that cover centuries of data, yet they still struggle with a 10-day forecast. How could a 200-year forecast be better than a 10-day forecast? The answer is the difference between weather and climate.

Imagine the differences as a baseball player. Weather is the player's single-game performance, whereas climate is his career batting average. It's much easier to predict where a player belongs in your lineup than it is to predict whether or not he will hit a home run in today's game. The same holds true for weather; meteorologists can more accurately predict changes in overall temperature systems than individual temperature records on a single day at a given location.

While we do not know if the record high temperature that was reached yesterday occurred centuries ago, we do know what the overall climate was like a millenia ago by studying geological record keepers. These climate proxies show us that temperatures are rising faster than ever. 

Global warming and climate are like a mosaic: up close, there are pieces that don't seem to fit the picture. Cherry-picked data, such as a periodic increase in sea ice in the Antarctic or inconsistent sea level rise in parts of the globe, are exploited as talking points to inject doubt about the validity of scientific findings on climate change.

However, just as a mosaic's image becomes clearer with perspective, a full review of all the available data show a comprehensible picture of a climate that's heating up, and a human influence on the warming climate. The picture continues to become clearer with each year of record-breaking heat. 

Balloon bits, bottle labels and other shorn off pieces of microplastic killed a baby turtle during washback season, according to Boca Raton's Gumbo Limbo Nature Center. Over 100 pieces of plastic was removed from the baby turtle's intestinal tract and placed alongside it on a table to warn people the dangers of plastics pollution in oceans and waterways.
Dick van Duijn
Who has time to stop and smell the roses (and other flowers)? Apparently this little guy does, as the series of photos shot by Dick van Duijn in Vienna, Austria, shows. The photographer had taken a special trip out with a friend specifically to snap photos of the ground squirrels for three days.
Dick van Duijn
He took about 500 photos before he got these cute snaps, the photographer told NBC.
Dick van Duijn
The Noordwijk, Netherlands, photographer said the squirrel ate his flower friend after.
Northern Territory Parks and Wildlife
A snake with three working eyes dubbed "Monty" was found on an Australian highway and posted to social media on May 1. Wildlife officers said x-rays of Monty's head shows a skull with an additional eye socket rather than two skulls fused together.
Northern Territory Parks and Wildlife
The wildlife authority said the eye most likely developed when Monty was an embryo.
Big Cypress National Preserve
A record-breaking 17-foot long female python was found and removed from South Florida's Big Cypress National Preserve. Park officials say it is the largest python ever found in the park, at 140 pounds.
Scottish SPCA
A woman arriving home in Scotland from a vacation in Australia found a spotted python hiding in a shoe in her luggage, according to the Scottish Society for Prevention of Cruelty to Animals. The nonvenomous snake was safely removed and taken to an animal rescue and rehoming center in Edinburgh.
Animal Clinic of Kalispell
Fluffy the cat almost froze to death when her owners found her in a snowbank, snow crusted in chunks around her fur. The 3-year-old cat, whose temperature didn't register on the clinic' thermometers when she was first bought in, later made a miraculous recovery.
Fluffy the cat during her recovery. The temperature outside where she was found was just below freezing.
Metro Nashville Police Department
A coyote made its way into a bathroom at Nashville's Music City Center Sunday, Jan. 12, 2019, police said. The animal, which police said was scared, was safely trapped and released in a wooded area.
Andi Jatmiko/AP
Alba, an albino orangutan, sits inside a cage before being released at Bukit Baka Bukit Raya National Park in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia on Dec. 19, 2018. The world’s only known albino orangutan climbed trees, foraged for food and began building a nest after being released into a remote Borneo jungle more than a year after conservation officials found her starving and dehydrated in an Indonesian village.
NBC Connecticut
Alba is released by a conservationist of the Borneo Orangutan Survival Foundation inside Bukit Baka Bukit Raya National Park in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia on Dec. 19, 2018.
Kevin Ebi/LivingWilderness.com
Wildlife photographer Kevin Ebi thought he would get photos of a bald eagle snatching a rabbit for its meal. To his surprise, Ebi caught the fight between eagle and a red fox kit struggling over the rabbit 20 feet in the air in a series of photos shot on San Juan Island, Washington. The eagle got its meal but don't worry - the fox kit is fine.
KNBC-TV
A 7-year-old Siberian Husky who was taken from her owner's New Mexico residence five years ago and ended up in Riverside, California, will be heading home for a happy reunion with the family that had given her up for dead.nAccording to the Riverside County Department of Animal Services, "Azula" was abducted from her Albuquerque-area property in 2013 and was located last month in a Riverside neighborhood. Read more here.
Juan Guerrero, Brooke Hogan
Within two days of each other, passengers watched as a raccoon and a snake caught a train ride with their owners on the New York subway. Bewildered passengers watched as the raccoon ate from a bowl of food and the snake dangled from the subway railing.
NBC Connecticut
Runner Dion Leonard and the stray dog who ran with him through the Gobi desert as part of the 2016 Gobi March race. The dog, named for the desert, later went missing in China, but Leonard was able to find it after a search using new and old media. Leonard has written a book about the experience, and their story has been sold to 21st Century Fox for a movie.
Adam Pearl via AP
This undated photo provided by Adam Pearl shows Pearl with his pet squirrel Joey in Meridian, Idaho. Joey made headlines in February 2017, when police nabbed a burglary suspect who reported fleeing a home after being attacked by a squirrel. Pearl says Joey was so young he still had his eyes closed when friends found him on the ground late in the summer of 2016 after he fell out of his nest. Pearl says Joey climbed onto his shoulder for an affectionate goodbye earlier in June 2017, then scampered up a backyard apple tree at his Meridian home and hasn't been seen since.
CHP Truckee via AP
A California Highway Patrol officer rescued a young fawn that got its leg stuck in a drainage ditch along I-80 near Truckee on June 20, 2017. Its head was sticking out of rushing water in the middle of a thunderstorm, said Sgt. Randy Fisher, who sprang into action to save the stranded animal.
Ventura County Animal Services
Thanks to a microchip, Kona was reunited with her family after seven years Tuesday, June 6, 2017. The pitbull was stolen from their Southern California backyard, and the family moved to Bakersfield without finding the pup.
A pig who escaped slaughter is now living out her life in a South African animal sanctuary and painting original works that have sold for up to $2,000.
Johannes Stehle/dpa via AP
A block of ice contains a drowned fox who broke through the thin ice four days earlier on the banks of the Danube river in Fridingen, Germany, on Jan. 13, 2017. A hunter put the fox on display outside his hotel to warn of the dangers of the icy river.
AP
In this Friday, March 3, 2017 photo, the female green green turtle nicknamed "Bank" swims in a pool at Sea Turtle Conservation Center n Chonburi Province, Thailand. Veterinarians operated Monday, March 6, 2017, on "Bank," removing less than 1,000 coins from the endangered animal. Her indigestible diet was a result of many tourists seeking good fortune tossing coins into her pool over many years in the eastern town of Sri Racha.
Heather Van Nes
An otter decided to join a Bay Area, California, couple as they kayaked in Elkhorn Slough waters near Moss Landing, Nov. 30, 2016.
A beaver made its away into the holiday section of a dollar store in Charlotte Hall, Maryland, on Nov. 28, 2016 and clawed through the merchandise before police arrived.
NBC
Shayla, a terrier mix, is being called an "unstoppable dog" after escaping death twice. After being shot by her former owner, she was mauled by a large dog while in foster care, resulting in four broken rips and a collapsed lung. She is expected to make a full recovery.
Jefferson County Sheriff's Office
A bear was found inside a Subaru in Colorado, sheriff's deputies said Tuesday, July 12, 2016.
Mark Olson / FCSO Facebook
An alligator was caught on camera using a crosswalk in Flagler County, in northern Florida, on June 6, 2016. According to the Flagler County Sheriff's Office, the gator was spotted in the bushes near the intersection at Cypress Point Parkway and Cypress Edge Drive in Palm Coast.
Nicole Bjanes
An Orlando woman escaped serious injury after a turtle went airborne and smashed into her windshield on the highway in Orlando, Florida, according to NBC affiliate WESH. Nicole Bjanes, the driver, was treated for minor cuts, and she wrote on Facebook that the turtle seemed ok and was returned to the water.
The U.S. Navy found a missing puppy that fell off a fishing boat nearly five weeks ago in the waters off Southern California. Luna, a German Shepherd puppy, was presumed to be lost at sea after falling overboard on Feb. 10. She was reunited with her surprised family.
A paralyzed bunny scooting around in a homemade wheelchair on an upstate New York farm has stolen the hearts of millions. The baby rabbit, now named Wheels, was found lying in a pen outside on the property of Overlook Acres in Amsterdam, about 30 miles northwest of Albany. Learn more here.
AP
A gorilla and her baby needed an emergency C-section at a British zoo after the mother seemed to have a potentially life-threatening illness. Cesarean surgery is rare for gorillas, and this one was delivered by a gynecologist who delivers human babies by C-section. The infant was born in late Feb. 2016 and both mother and baby are doing fine. nn
Pennsylvania firefighters rescue Golden Retriever from bottom of 15-foot sinkhole, two days after she disappeared from her home.
A New Jersey letter carrier was trapped inside his mail truck by a group of turkeys on Feb. 16, 2016. The carrier had to be rescued by two police officers.
South Dade Animal Hospital
A 99-year-old woman in Miami woke up to find an animal on her chest, according to a veterinarian caring for the unusual creature. Watch video of the creature here.
NYPD / Twitter
A couple of NYPD cops paid $40 of their own money to bail out a goat that escaped a slaughterhouse in Jan. 2016, taking the gruff former fugitive to a Long Island sanctuary. “He fought crime with us,” Sgt. Mary Humburg said. "Best $40 I've spent.
WeRunHuntsville/G. Gelmis and J. Armstrong
Ludivine, a bloodhound, joined a half marathon in Elkmont, Alabama, and finished in seventh place.
NYPD / Twitter
The runaway cow that escaped a New York City slaughterhouse on Thursday, Jan. 21, will live to see another day after being wrangled and returned by New York police officers. Animal-lover Mike Stura, 49, brought the bovine to his New Jersey animal sanctuary after he saw footage of the cow running wild on the streets of Jamaica, Queens.nn
A dog stood guard over another dog who died in Dallas, Texas, until volunteers brought the guard dog to nearby animal services. "He was just kind of sitting guard, like a statue, just sitting there watching over his friend’s body," said animal advocate Julie Fennell. Click through for more info. n
NBC 5 News
A mountain lion was perched on a 35-foot telephone pole in Lucerne Valley in California following a Hesperia mountain lion warning on Sept. 29, 2015. Click here to read more.
Ellsworth Police Department
A dog in Maine shifted a car into gear, rolling it into a lake, Sept. 26, 2015. The local police department thanked a local towing company for their help retrieving some submerged property after "a dog took a truck for a wild ride."
A Texas man was out fishing when he got an unexpected bite, from an owl. Garry Olson Jr. was fishing in Austin, Texas when the owl swooped down and snatched his lure out of the water, which then caught on to its talon. After realizing what had happened, Garry paddled his kayak to the owl, giving it a dry harbor to rest on while Animal Control was called. Upon arrival, it took animal control about an hour to free the owl.
AP/University of Adelaide
A python named Winston in Australia swallowed BBQ tongs and underwent surgery to recover, as seen here.
WTLV
A Florida farm is home to an extremely rare two-headed calf, which the family named Annabel.
NBC 5 News
A cow in Northeast Texas apparently defied great odds and gave birth to four calves that have been named Eeny, Meeny, Miny and Moo.
A furry stowaway who had been missing from his South Carolina home since 2013 was found hiding in a trailer in Southern California.
In Dallas, these puppies that survived being dumped off a bridge were reunited with their mother, thanks to social media.
Humane Society of Tampa Bay
After he was hit by a car, Bart's owner presumed him dead buried him in a shallow grave in Tampa, Fla. Five days later, he showed up at the door, meowing for food! Here, Bart the "Miracle Cat" after a successful surgery.
Gentle Carousel Miniature Therapy Horses on Facebook
Los Angeles County sheriff's deputies pose with Valor, a miniature therapy horse joining the department as a volunteer.
County News Center
A Siberian husky in San Diego found herself in precarious situation this week. The pup, 1-year-old Bella, got stuck in a storm drain. Read the full story here.
Animal Coalition of Tampa
Akila, a Tampa-area family's cat, is recovering after she was found with an arrow shot through her head. Read the full story here.n
KSNV
A massive school of fish appeared on the Miami Beach shore Wednesday. The small fish dodged larger sharks and tarpon.
AP
Lazarus, a mixed-breed dog who survived a euthanasia attempt, a car accident and deadly heartworms, sits by his new owner, Jane Holston, in Helena, Alabama, on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2014. Turned in to an animal shelter by his previous owner, a volunteer found the dog alive in the shelter the morning after he was injected with deadly chemicals. Holston adopted the dog from Two by Two Animal Rescue, which named him Lazarus after the man the Bible says Jesus raised from the dead.
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