Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued their pre-season Atlantic hurricane forecast for 2025 and they predict an active season.
A total of 13 to 19 named storms can be expected, NOAA said, of which six to 10 will become hurricanes — and 3-5 will become major hurricanes. On average, the Atlantic produces 14 total named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major storms.
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WATCH HEREThe NOAA forecast is in line with the seasonal forecast issued by researchers at Colorado State University in early April.
Their forecast is based on multiple factors:
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SIGN UP - Warmer-than-normal water in the Atlantic Ocean
- ENSO-Neutral pattern (neither El Niño or La Niña conditions)
- Weak trade winds and wind shear over the Atlantic
- Active West African Monsoon
Warm ocean water provides the energy that fuels hurricanes. When the ocean is warmer than normal, there is more energy for hurricanes to draw upon.
Equatorial Pacific water temperature anomalies (ENSO) factor into the hurricane season forecast, too. Typically, an El Niño pattern – unusually warm equatorial Pacific water off South America – produces wind patterns over the Atlantic that are hostile to hurricane development.
Conversely, La Niña – unusually cold water – produces wind patterns over the Atlantic that are favorable for hurricane development. This year, forecasters are predicting ENSO-Neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niño). But they do expect relatively favorable wind patterns for hurricane development: light trade winds and low wind shear.
An active West African Monsoon usually leads to numerous tropical waves emerging into the Atlantic Ocean from the west coast of Africa as hurricane season nears its peak. These tropical waves can lead to long-lasting, powerful hurricanes.
The hurricane season begins on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30. NOAA’s forecast can serve as a reminder to get prepared for the 2025 season:
- Have a plan in the event a hurricane makes a direct hit in the tri-state area or an indirect blow from a hurricane, tropical storm or the remnants of a storm (think the remnants of Ida on Sept. 1, 2021 that caused widespread flash flooding)
- Make sure to have the proper insurance (including flood insurance)
- Know the evacuation zone and have a plan in place in case you do need to evacuate
- Get all the necessary supplies for a hurricane kit in case your area is impacted by a storm.
