June 1 marks the first day of the 2022 hurricane season, and we might not have to wait long for the first named storm of the season to form. A tropical disturbance over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula has a 70 percent chance to develop into an organized storm in the next two days and an 80 percent chance of formation in the next five days. Currently it is over land, so it has no chance to strengthen. Once it ventures into the northwestern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it can tap into the energy of the warm, tropical water and strengthen.
The disturbance is the remnants of Hurricane Agatha, the Category 2 hurricane in the Pacific Ocean that hit Mexico’s southern coast on Monday. It weakened quickly once it passed inland.
If it re-strengthens to tropical storm strength again, it would become “Alex” instead of keeping the name “Agatha”. The reason for the name change is because “Agatha” is the first storm name on the list for Pacific hurricanes this year. Since the storm has crossed over into the Atlantic basin, it will take on an Atlantic name – “Alex”.
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The disturbance will make a play for South Florida by Friday. People with interests in the Florida Keys, Naples, Fort Meyers, Miami to as far north as Tampa should keep a close eye on the progress of this storm.
Early-season tropical systems typically form in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean, where water temperatures are the warmest. During the peak of hurricane season, in August and September, hurricanes are more likely to form in the open Atlantic.