After a very dry January, February is getting off to a much sloppier start.
One system moved through Sunday night. Now we’re tracking a series of systems – three, to be exact – between now and next week. They’re set to bring a wintry mix of rain, snow, and ice across the tri-state.
The first system arrives early Thursday morning just in time to make a mess of the commute. At the onset, precipitation will be entirely snow. This won’t be heavy snow, but it is still enough to reduce visibility and make for some slippery road conditions. If you need to be out, take it easy and give yourself plenty of time to get to your destination, especially if you’re travelling on untreated roads.

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As the day goes on and warmer air moves into the region, the snow switches over to sleet, freezing rain and rain. The exact type of precipitation is determined by the vertical temperature profile in a given area.
When there is relatively warmer air above a freezing surface, sleet or freezing rain will develop, depending on the depth of the freezing surface air. It is not until the warmer air reaches the ground that precipitation will fall, and remain, as liquid.

By midday on Thursday, this switchover from snow starts to take place, making for an icy lunch hour. Freezing rain will be most prevalent across northwest New Jersey and into the Hudson Valley. We don’t anticipate any major ice accumulations to come from the freezing rain, but it only takes a light glaze to turn surfaces slick.
Further south and east, a brief period of freezing rain is possible, but majority will see a quick changeover from snow to rain.

The evening commute will be a rainy one for most, with some icing continuing further north and west. Just like with the morning commute, travel will be tricky especially with the rain and warmer temperatures melting the morning snow and turning it to slush. Stay mindful of your surroundings and roads conditions if you need to be out.
Snow totals will be tough to call, due to the changeover to rain on the back end that will melt a portion of the snow that will have accumulated.
When all is said and done, the Hudson Valley and North Jersey could pick up an inch or more. High elevations in the mountains could pick up over 3 inches.





Beyond Thursday’s system, we’re in for another round of wintry weather by late Saturday into Sunday. The good news: timing won’t impact any rush-hour commutes. The bad news: it will make a mess of your weekend.
Just like Thursday, this is another system that starts as snow and transitions into rain with a good amount of ice mixing in during the transition. The worst of the mess with come through late Saturday into Sunday morning. If you need to make plans or run errands over the weekend, best to schedule them for early on Saturday or late on Sunday.
Our final storm in this parade of systems comes in the middle of next week. Being so far out, there is a lot of time for the forecast to evolve, but current timing and temperatures favor some decent snowfall prior to a switchover to ice and rain.
While our two preceding systems will bring shovel-able snow to parts of our region, this would be our best chance over the next 10 days to see measurable snowfall across the tri-state.