EDITOR'S NOTE: An updated article with the latest forecast has been posted here.
We’re getting a brief reprieve from the freezing temperatures this weekend, as highs climb back above freezing and into the 40s by Saturday. But it is not going to be an entirely dry weekend.
We’re tracking the chance for both rain and snow ahead of another major temperature swing.
Saturday is certain to be our mildest day out of the next 10 and, as such, any precipitation we get in NYC is going to be all liquid. Further north and west in the Hudson Valley, temperatures will be cold enough to support snow flurries, but don’t expect more than a dusting.
Get Tri-state area news delivered to your inbox. Sign up for NBC New York's News Headlines newsletter.
Saturday’s rain will arrive late in the day. The morning will be cloudy, but dry. Showers pick up by late afternoon and evening, and they will be very light and scattered.
The one exception will be Suffolk County. The low-pressure system bringing the rain is tracking further east, leaving most of us relatively dry, while Long Island will see steadier rain. If you forget your umbrella on your way out the door Saturday, it will not be the end of the world. As long as you have a jacket with a hood, you’ll be more than prepared for any rain.
News
Most of us will pick up less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation. Even on Long Island, where the steadier rain sets up, expect between a tenth to 1/4 of an inch.
For Sunday, the timing of our precipitation again favors the evening. But with the influx of arctic air pushing into the region, temperatures will be falling below freezing and we expect an all-snow event as a result.
The later timing means the majority of plans for Sunday will be unencumbered. It is not until around dinnertime that the snow starts falling.
Snow showers continue through the overnight and into the early morning hours of Monday before tapering off. Expect slippery roads for the morning commute.
Our forecast totals have increased as the models have come into alignment. Three to five inches of snow will be common in most areas Sunday night, with smaller amounts possible in isolated areas where lighter snow bands set up. The forecast for Sunday’s snow is still preliminary since we are more than 48 hours out from Sunday evening, so stay tuned to Storm Team 4 for updates as we get closer to the weekend.
The snow forecast may be somewhat up in the air, but one thing is for sure: any snow that falls will not be melting next week.
Temperatures plummet into the teens and 20s for several days; morning lows fall to the single digits in the city. The snow is going to make it look like the dead of winter; and the temperatures will feel like it.
