I have a mission: to bring accountability to fantasy sports writing. I intend to stop fantasy sports writers from writing ridiculous things and completely getting away with it.
The most egregious prediction I read in the last week was this one, which suggested starting Rex Grossman:
"My gut says that Kyle Orton throws four picks-each of which gets returned for a touchdown-and gets benched, and then Grossman takes the helm and leads the team to the greatest comeback victory of all time..."
How utterly irresponsible. Sure, Orton only scored 8.5 $100K Fantasy Challenge points (click here to learn about the game-you can still sign up and earn a chance at $100K), but he did lead the Bears to victory over the Colts.
My ultimate goal is to catalog when any fantasy sports writer on the planet makes a prediction (Rex will throw four TDs) or prescription (start Rex). I will then determine if that fantasy sports writer's assertion is "correct" using a highly secret, deadly accurate algorithm that factors in the difficulty level of the prediction (DOP). Over time, each fantasy writer will accrue stats that will contribute to their Rightability Percentage Index (RPI) ranking.
For example, the RPI rankings might look something like this:
Gregg "Rosey" Rosenthal: 85%
Evan Silva: 81%
Aaron Gleeman: 81%
Mark St. Amant 83%
Chris Wesseling 84%
P. Terrence: 23%
U.S. & World
This week, however, you will only be able to vote on the picks made by the bonehead who picked Rex Grossman to be a SNF Bonus Player. Click here to vote!
I did get one extremely bold pick right in Week 1, though: Before the season even started (check the date stamp!), I wrote an entry in my personal diary that predicted the exact way in which Tom Brady would get injured. (Hoax? Yes, I backdated the post. It was really just a sneaky way to link to some of my other writings.)
Quarterbacks
Eli Manning - The Rams gave up the most passing yards (414!) in Week 1, so my initial instinct was that this pick was a no-brainer. But then I began thinking about the four easy interceptions that the Redskins defense dropped. Four is a lot. Cause for pause. But then I unpaused when I reminded myself about how terrible (414!) the Rams' pass defense looked in Week 1.
Aaron Rodgers - This pick isn't jumping on the Aaron Rogers bandwagon as much as it is simply a realization that Detroit looked like a defense that might continue to give up lots of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Full disclosure: I'm not yet on the Rogers bandwagon, but I admit that I have filled out all the paperwork necessary to join.
Ben Roethlisberger - I doubt that Big Ben will keep his current 93% completion rate going for the entire season, but it is possible he keeps it going against the Cleveland defense. Note: Big Ben is a little nicked up right now, so monitor his injury status before going with him this week.
Running Backs
Julius Jones - I thought about going with Matt "Fortissimo" Forte in this spot (man, his stock has certainly reached a crescendo), but I'm saving Forte for his Week 5 game against Detroit. And I'm saving Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson for his Week 6 game against Detroit and Chris "Chris Johnson" Johnson for his Week 3 game against Houston.
Speaking of Christopher Duan Johnson, I've decided he needs a nickname. I'm generally against nicknames, as they usually feel marketing-y and fake, but in this case I think there is a very practical reason for giving him a nickname: there are currently ten C. Johnson's in the NFL, and a nickname will help to avoid confusion.
These are the best Chris Johnson nickname options I could come up with on short notice:
Mr. 4:24 - There is always the Ocho Cinco Johnson route, in which some part of the original name is replaced by some meaningful numerical equivalent, which in this case would be Chris Johnson's record setting 40 time.
Duan Gone - What do you do to spice up a name? Get the middle name more involved.
Short Bolt - Roy Williamschanged the nickname of the 6'5" Calvin Johnson from "Megatron" to "Bolt" after watching Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt, who is also 6'5", run in the Beijing Olympics. Chris Johnson is fast like Bolt, but he is only 5'11", hence the addition of the word "short." Chris' name is also shorter than Calvin's name, making the nickname work on two levels (sort of).
Tennespeed - In case you haven't caught on yet, this word was invented by combining Tennesee with the word speed. Say it fast and it sounds like you're saying "ten speed," which is considered to be a bike of the slow variety. This was a terrible suggestion.
To vote on Chris Johnson's nickname, click here.
Where was I? Oh, yes, Julius Jones. Sigh. On one hand, this is the "smart" pick because Maurice Morris is out for a limited time and Jones will be a featured back until he returns. Plus, San Francisco appears to be a struggling defense. That said, what bothers me about this pick is that any way you slice it, Jones is still Jones. Meaning that just because he'll be getting 20 touches instead of 10, he's still been a 3.5 yards per carry running back of late. Putting it another way, Jones is still the guy who lost carries to, ahem, Maurice Morris. I'm still recommending him, but I don't like it.
Darius Walker - Just kidding. I just wanted to list two former Notre Dame running backs in a row.
Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs is one of those backs that is amazing when he is healthy but frustrating when nicked up. He looked healthy in Week 1, so get him in your lineup before he gets nicked up.
Wide Receivers
Anquan Boldin - Thinking ahead for a second, keep an eye on that Week 3 game that Calvin Johnson has with San Francisco. For this week, however, go with Quan, who had a healthy 11 targets in Week 1 and is matched up against the Dolphins defense for Week 2. The Dolphins might eventually have a decent team this year after all the off-season changes take root. Eventually. But not yet.
Plaxico Burress - Is there a Giant I don't like? Plax tied for third in the league for targets with 13 in Week 1. But more importantly, he looked healthy, and you should get him in your line-up before he re-injures his ankle.
Dwayne Bowe - Bowe also had 13 targets in Week 1 (he only caught five). He'll be matched up against a "strong" (top three?) Oakland pass defense that just gave up 300 yards passing to Jay Cutler and the Denver Broncos. Conventional wisdom states that Oakland is strong against the pass, but it also states that Bowe catches more passes when Damon Huard is the quarterback. Which conventional wisdom is truer? Well, you know what I think.
Tight End
Tony Gonzalez - Be conservative with your tight end pick. Avoid the one-week wonders. As Gregg Rosenthal points out in his The Monday After column, this fluky tight end phenomenon has happened before.
Go with Gonzalez, who plays Oakland in Week 2. Bronco tight ends didn't have that many catches against the Raiders (three), but that is more a result of the Broncos inexplicably keeping their only pass-catching tight end (Tony Scheffler) on the bench for large stretches of time.
(Oh, you've already used Gonzalez in Week 1? Go with Jason Witten against Philadelphia. Not a perfect solution, but it is better than gambling on someone else and getting a no-catch day.)
Defenses
New York Giants - Eli, Jacobs, Plax, and now the NYG defense. Wait until you see my kickers.
Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers play Cleveland in Week 2. Did you know that the Cleveland offense was only on the field for 22.5 minutes last week? I'm not really sure what this means, but I think it means that the Steelers will dominate the time possession and score a lot of $100K Fantasy Challenge points along the way.
Kansas City Chiefs - If you make this pick, you're hoping that JaMarcus Russell doesn't repeat his 111 quarterback rating (inflated by two meaningless fourth-quarter touchdowns) and fumbles more frequently.
Kickers
John Carney, Mason Crosby, and Matt Stover - Pick kickers that play against weak defenses. If the offense scores a lot, the kickers are going to score points, right? Here is the flaw in that plan: it can be difficult to know which defenses are actually weak this early in the season. For example, last week, Atlanta seemed to be a sure bet to struggle defensively, but they "held" Detroit to 21 real points and just a single fantasy point. (Yes, they were playing the Lions, but still.) Deep in my heart I'm not sure I really believe that there is any sort of strategy to picking kickers. Anyway, the kickers listed above play the Rams, Lions, and Texans, respectively.
The Sunday Night Football (SNF) Bonus Player (Steelers vs. Browns)
Ben Roethlisberger - Big Ben is my only SNF Bonus Player suggestion this week. (I know I said I didn't like NFL nicknames, but "Big Ben" has always felt right to me.) It might seem strange to suggest a slightly injured quarterback who threw only fourteen passes and fumbled once in his last game. Here is my logic: Big Ben plays consistently well when he's playing with a lead, and the Steelers should score early and often against Cleveland. After last week, it is tempting to pick "Fast" Willie Parker, especially since Cleveland gave up a lot of rushing yards in its season opener with Dallas, but I'm still not feeling the Willie Parker thing. I'm a Rashard Mendenhall loyalist, and I'm sticking by him even though he currently doesn't have a clearly defined role on the team.
That's it for this week. Remember to check in next week, as I'll be going national with my fantasy sports writer accountability program. You'll be able to click on any fantasy sports writer's name and have his or her stats pop up, much like Rex Grossman's stats pop up when you click on his name.
I don't take credit for inventing the concept of meritocracy, but perhaps I can make it popular. And what if I don't follow through with this, you ask? Well, since there is currently no way to hold me accountable for my bold statements, I guess I'll completely get away with it.
Interested in winning $100,000 for playing fantasy football? Then click here to play the $100,000 Fantasy Challenge.
