It looks like the Yankees might be looking overseas for help this offseason.
Word out of Japan is that Yu Darvish, widely considered to be the best pitcher in that country these days, will ask to enter the posting process so that he can make the jump to the United States.
For those unfamiliar with the posting process, interested teams submit bids for the exclusive negotiating rights to Darvish and the winning team gets a window to sign Darvish -- a totally separate outlay of money -- or he returns to Japan for another season with the money coming back. The combined price for Darvish is expected to be at least $100 million.
There's not much surprise accompanying the rumored decision. Darvish has been on the radar screen for several years and, as you'll see from his stats, there's nothing left for him to prove on the other side of the Pacific.
Darvish went 18-6 with a 1.44 ERA and struck out 276 batters in 232 innings. There are myriad differences between the two leagues, but numbers like that are going to make people take notice and, in a year without too may appealing pitching free agents, it will likely lead to several interested bidders.
Will the Yankees be among them? Brian Cashman said the team has scouted Darvish and reportedly think highly of his work, but that might not be enough to overcome memories of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa.
There have been some successful Japanese starters in the big leagues -- Hideo Nomo and Hiroki Kuroda, to name two -- but the dual burnings provided by Dice-K and Igawa have to be giving general managers some pause about making such a big bet on Darvish. But there are three big reasons why it makes sense for the Yankees.
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The first is the uncertainty around CC Sabathia. Even if you think he'll re-sign, you need to consider all alternatives available to replace him in the rotation.
Number two is the fact that C.J. Wilson, the top pitcher on the free agent market, is likely to land a contract that is in the neighborhood of $100 million. Wilson is a nice pitcher, despite his postseason failings, but he doesn't really feel like one worth losing a first-round pick while adding to the luxury tax payout.
Darvish's contract would count toward the payroll, but the posting fee would be free and clear of that penalty. His contract would be less than Wilson's, leaving space in a payroll going forward, and the upside is probably greater than Wilson's.
The advantage the Yankees have financially has been talked about to death, but the place where it comes into play the most is when dealing with international free agents because of the fact that there's so much less consequence to spending that money on the budget. People talk about swallowing mistakes like A.J. Burnett, but his contract still winds up costing more because of the penalties of the luxury tax.
It's a big risk and only those with deep scouting knowledge can know if Darvish is worth it, but getting burned by Igawa doesn't mean that Darvish isn't a player the Yankees should be exploring.
Josh Alper is a writer living in New York City. You can follow him on Twitter and he is also a contributor to Pro Football Talk.
