There are several intriguing stories around the NBA this offseason that will have some fantasy impacts.
The Truth About Monta
We've all heard about the unfortunate ankle injury suffered by Monta Ellis. I don't expect him to be at full strength until after the All-Star break, as he did some really serious damage. He says he was working out when it happened, but the Warriors reportedly don't believe him. And unless he dropped a huge set of barbells on his foot, it's hard to imagine him suffering such a serious injury by simply "working out." Don't be surprised if that "work out" didn't happen on a motorcycle. The team can fine, suspend him or terminate his contract if he was injured while acting irresponsibly, but it's doubtful that they would actually terminate his new deal, regardless of how the injury happened. Then again, it depends on how all of this shakes out. And until the team proves otherwise, we have to assume that Ellis is not lying about the injury.
The fantasy impacts here are huge. Marcus Williams will start at point guard and is now worth a mid-round pick. I thought he'd be starting eventually, but the fact the opening-night job is his is huge. Stephen Jackson's spot in the rotation is solidified, as his role was going to be a little up in the air if Ellis would have been bumped to shooting guard, with Corey Maggette locking down the small forward spot. Williams is going to be a serious sleeper candidate in your draft and should make for an excellent second point guard.
A Message For You - The Evolution of Rudy
Step 1: Rudy Fernandez is drafted by the Blazers a couple years ago, but will stay in Europe. We're all intrigued as to what kind of fantasy player he might be in the NBA.
Step 2: Rudy says he's going to play for the Blazers this year. Everyone is intrigued, although it's impossible to figure out where he fits in to the Blazers' rotation.
Sports
Step 3: Rudy plays for Spain's Olympic team and looks fantastic though the preliminary round as optimism grows in the fantasy community.
Step 4: Rudy throws down a sick dunk in the face of Dwight Howard and Team USA in the gold-medal game and swings on the rim like the Grape Ape. He immediately jumps from a late-round fantasy pick to an eighth-rounder.
Step 5: Nate McMillan raves about his new possession/obsession, firmly entrenching Rudy as the "sleeper of the year" in everyone's mind: "I was so impressed with him that it was to the point where after the second time I saw him, I didn't sleep that night because I was moving my rotations around," McMillan said. "I swear I did not sleep. I could not sleep thinking about him. Because I'm saying, 'We can put him here, do this with him, do that with him and Brandon (Roy), and do this...So he's playing for us. Oh yeah. I see that right now." And if McMillan losing sleep over Rudy's arrival doesn't give him a final boost of hype that will have owners overpaying for him, nothing will. But count me in with everyone else who is excited about seeing him in the NBA.
Brandon Roy could play a lot of minutes at point guard and small forward to get Rudy on the floor, and you can bet that Nate is going to get creative in order to find a way to get him minutes. It will probably be too early, but someone in your draft will jump on Rudy in the fifth or sixth round.
Steve Blake is set to start at point guard, but Roy will see minutes there (once he's recovered from knee surgery) and rookie Jerryd Bayless is also likely to play some point. Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw will battle for the starting small forward job, but it sounds like McMillan is envisioning Webster as his starter, with Outlaw coming off the bench. Now the question with Outlaw is, will he get enough shots? He's going to be competing with guys like Rudy, Bayless, Oden and even Channing Frye for touches if he's coming off the bench.
The Heat Is On
I expect the Heat to be much better this season, but point guard is still a huge question mark. The team is still waiting for Chris Quinn to accept a contract offer and the starting job is a toss up between Quinn, rookie Mario Chalmers and career backup Marcus Banks. You have to think Stephon Marbury may be in Miami before all is said and done, and they really could use him.
Another question mark is who will start at power forward. The Miami Herald has Udonis Haslem penciled in, but it's hard to imagine Michael Beasley not starting. A probable starting five of Banks, Dwyane Wade (who looked awesome in Beijing), Shawn Marion, Beasley and newly signed Mark Blount doesn't look too bad on paper. But they need a point guard, so keep your eyes peeled for news on Marbury heading to Miami.
Kidding Around
People who watched Jason Kidd running Team USA's offense think he's on his last legs. I don't care if he's lost a step and no longer has the ability to score at will (or at all), the rebounds, assists and steals are still going to be there this year. If you can handle him scoring just eight or so points per game, he should remain a very serviceable point guard. And he won't cost you an arm and a leg this year. Target him late in the second round, but don't be fully surprised if he ends up falling to the third. If you can handle the lack of offense, go for it.
Bigfoot Sighting
Marc Gasol looked pretty solid for Spain in the Olympics and will battle for the starting center job in Memphis. He'll get competition from Darko Milicic and a relatively unknown Iranian named Hamed Haddadi, but I bet Gasol gets the job as Memphis tries to convince the world that they didn't actually trade his brother, Pau, for nothing. I'm not expecting big numbers from Marc, but he might be a serviceable second fantasy center this season. Haddadi is an unknown, and Darko is one of the biggest busts of all time. And with Grizzlies management constantly grabbing at straws like Gasol and Haddadi, it leads me to believe that they have no faith in Darko. And why should they?
Ice Cold Beer, Here!
How good are the Bucks going to be? I think they're a playoff team with Richard Jefferson on board, but like the Heat, the question remains about their point guard position. Luke Ridnour looks like the starter, and he should be backed up by Ramon Sessions. But with a starting five of Ridnour, Michael Redd, Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut, they could do some damage. All five starters should have some fantasy value, but I would wait on Ridnour until the later rounds of your draft. Villanueva, on the other hand, appears to be primed for a comeback this season and makes for a nice sleeper.
Feeling Minnesota
Kevin Love will likely start at center for the Wolves, allowing Al Jefferson, who will probably go in the second round of most drafts this year, to play power forward. With a starting lineup rounded out by PG Randy Foye, SG Mike Miller and SF Ryan Gomes, the Wolves should be more competitive this season. Love should be a decent second center for fantasy teams, but I wouldn't plan on using a valuable pick on him. If someone else wants him in the fifth round, let them have him - Unless all the centers are off the board and you still don't have one.
No Way, Jose!
Jose Calderon was not great at the Olympics and didn't play in the final few games with a groin injury. But he should be fine by the start of the season, and despite his disappointing run in Beijing, I still think he's going to be fantasy stud this season. In fact, he should be a Top 5 point guard and I'm not ready to bump him down the list of fantasy point guards just because of a weak showing with Spain. The numbers from last season's run with Toronto don't lie, and without T.J. Ford around, he should be a big-time fantasy performer this season. But I would feel a little better about him right now if he was healthy and had he put up some solid numbers in the Olympics.
The Kids Are Right
The last two reports on Andrew Bynum say that he is ready to go this season and should come in fully healthy. He's a risk/reward player, but will obviously be one of the first centers taken in your draft. I'm still not sure where I will have him ranked, but you might as well plan on spending a third- or fourth-round pick on him if you want him.
Greg Oden is reportedly in amazing shape and the Blazers are even happier with his progression than they thought they would be. Along with Bynum, he's going to be a popular pick somewhere between the third and fifth rounds this year.
Nash Confusion
Suns' management (aka Steve Kerr) says he's going to limit Steve Nash to 70 games and cut his minutes this year. The idea is to keep him fresh for the playoffs and possibly prolong his career. Of course, this is very similar to the plan Don Nelson used to roll out about Baron Davis every season about this time. Now I doubt Kerr is another Nellie (or at least, I hope not), but it's important to note that no matter how many times Nellie has said this, Davis always played mega-minutes because Nelson never thought he could win with Davis on his bench. Well, except for that one time at the end of last season with the playoffs on the line when Nellie suddenly decided that Baron wasn't worth playing in the second half - which is probably the reason Davis is now in Los Angeles.
Anyway, I think the 70 games, less-minutes plan is a great idea, but I am not sure how new coach Terry Porter, or Kerr, are going to feel about benching Nash in a tight game and turning to guys like Goran Dragic and Sean Singletary to run the offense - Especially given the fact they have a total of ZERO NBA games under their collective belt. I think the "less-Nash theory" is worth taking into consideration, but like Nash himself, I think it's much easier said than done. "We'll see how it goes," Nash said. "Those are great intentions, but is it realistic? We'll see. I feel like you can always use the rest," he continued. "If you can get to the postseason well rested, it's perfect. But you can't always afford to do that." Stay tuned.
