All signs point to yes regarding the marriage between the New York Mets and free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez, a move that would fill the team's biggest hole with the top ranked player on the market.
What has long been rumored as a good match, was no shoo-in at the start of the offseason because of K-Rod's presumed contract demands. But much like last year, when Mets General Manager Omar Minaya played the market perfectly enabling him to pilfer ace Johan Santana from the Minnesota Twins, circumstances fell into place such that even Aaron Heilman could have closed the deal. There were three main factors contributing to this perfect storm of a deal for the Mets belaguered bullpen:
The Economy: You may have heard about it on the news recently, and baseball teams are feeling it (or at least acting like they're feeling it) like everyone else. A few years ago a mediocre Barry Zito was able to steal $120 million from the San Francisco Giants, and Billy Wagner leveraged four years out of the Mets. This year CC Sabathia's resume is just about impeccable, and he's looking at Zito money. K-Rod who broke the record for saves, is hoping he'll get paid like Wagner who's out with a major elbow injury.
Mo & Pap: Closers Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon hurt Rodriguez's bottom line in two ways. Because both players are signed to contracts, K-Rod's agent couldn't use the Red Sox or Yankees to inflate the bidding on his client. Secondly, K-Rod doesn't dominate like those guys. Francisco might be the Mariano of the guys who are available, but he lacks Mo's sterling numbers.
Too Many Options: Supply outweighs demand this year. The Mets had at least four reasonable free agent options in Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood and Trevor Hoffman. This is before even dipping into the trade market, or second tier of relievers.
Right now the numbers are rumored to be three years for $37 million, and it's got to sting K-Rod a little bit when you consider Francisco Cordero got four years and $46M last year from the Cincinnatti Reds.
It's funny how timing works. Rodriguez got zero leverage out of breaking the single-season saves record this year. And the Mets lost little position despite their desperate need for a top-flight closer.
