MCI Index: Who's rising?

Welcome to the first installment of the Fantasy Man-Crush Index, your 2008 player stock guide. Each week, I'll take a look at a handful of players upon whom Fantasy Nation - that's you, readers -- is heaping piles of crazy, sometimes irrational affection. Or not heaping, as the case may be, either of which will hopefully help you with those tough "buy or sell?" decisions that can make or break your season.

But first, a trip down memory lane, sponsored by Rotoworld, Vermont Teddy Bears and eHarmony.

I found my first fantasy football man-crush back in 1998, my "rookie year." I was absolutely butchering my draft the way newbies often do -Drew Bledsoe fifth overall (homer pick!); Chiefs D/ST in the 4th round (with the imbecilic reasoning that Tamarick Vanover would have lots of punt return touchdowns). But in the 13th round, like a chimp, I blindly hurled more of my own filth at the draft board and, somehow, it hit a talented but troubled rookie out of Marshall named Randy Moss. Guffaws, jeers and tired jokes about my team locker room reeking like Jeff Spicoli's van quickly followed. But I was the one laughing sixteen weeks later, after Moss hauled in 1,313 yards and 17 TDs.

I've loved Moss ever since . . . in a platonic, respectful, awkward man-hug/knuckle-rap kind of way, not a "leave my wife, kidnap him, keep him in a dirt pit in my sub-basement and then make a suit out of his skin" way. I've had him on most of my teams over the past decade. Randy and I have had our ups and downs, sure - mooning Packer fans; ditching FedEx Field early; being labeled washed-up by such respected football minds as Art Shell and innkeeper/offensive coordinator Tom Walsh. But last year, he rewarded my longtime faith and devotion with his monster 23-TD season. Yes, folks, I truly believe that he rocked those monster numbers just for me.

Wait . . . is that weird?

Anyway, I'll do my damndest this season to be your Standard & Poor's each week, examining the how's and why's of a player's rising or falling stock. I'll consider everything from simple point production to x-factors like injuries, depth chart and/or team personnel changes, and even off-field incidents, like sucker-punching an innocent plasma screen (talkin' to you, Brandon Marshall). And because you likely don't have all day to scour fantasy message boards, read articles from local beat writers and generally immerse yourself in all things fantasy football 24/7, I'll be out there gathering that intel for you. No reason you should get fired.

With that, let's take a look at some risers and fallers as we sit giddily perched on the brink of another season.

RISERS

Rudi Johnson, RB, Lions
Being plucked off the scrapheap by respected personnel guru Matt Millen is the only reason Rudi's not working a Long John Silver's drive-thru right now. Yes, he could very easily see some goal line carries and now only a rookie (Kevin Smith) stands between him and a starting gig on a decent offense (albeit one with a terrible O-line), his hammys are suspect at best, no matter which feline-themed themed uniform he wears. Stock has risen, yes, but I'm personally not buying.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles
When Kevin Curtis went down, Jackson had a golden opportunity to seize control of a full-time gig. And he did with some stellar pre-season play. Now, Reggie Brown is pulling his annual "I'll injure anything, anytime" act. Temper expectations of course, because (A) we have little empirical evidence that shows he can produce against starting defenses for four quarters, and (B) the WR2 on Philly has never been a fantasy goldmine. But that Reid held him out of the pre-season finale - a rarity for a rook -- speaks volumes about his potential. While he's not assured of pulling a "Colston-in-2006" because Hank Baskett is also kicking around, Jackson could have a nice impact if things shake out.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
Willis McGahee battled (knee) injuries throughout the pre-season, and word is the Ravens weren't happy with the speed of his recovery, i.e. they felt he was playing too much Madden 2008 instead of re-habbing Enter Ray Rice, an undersized rookie from Rutgers who impressed in the pre-season and would start this weekend if McGahee can't go vs. Cincy. He's a must-own for McGahee owners and could make some noise in Week 1 against a suspect Bengals run defense.

Chris Perry/Kenny Watson, RBs, Bengals
The aforementioned Johnson is gone. Perry finally made it through a camp and is the starter heading into Week 1. But while his stock rose enough to see him drafted his own injury history and the presence of both Kenny Watson and DeDe Dorsey (even though most people generally don't fear dudes named "DeDe") make Perry risky. I personally think Kenny Watson again ends up with the most production out of all Bengal RBs this year. How much that is this season is anyone's guess.

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets
Favre has always had that "break glass in case of emergency" receiver. Back in the day it was Antonio Freeman. Then Donald Driver. And word out of Jets camp is that this year's official Favre security blanket is Cotchery. After a quietly spectacular 2007 (82 catches, 1,130 yards, 2 TDs) with mediocre at best quarterbacks, his (usual) 4th round draft status makes it clear that Fantasy Nation is ready to start a-courtin' Cotchery for years to come.

Tony Scheffler, TE, Broncos
While most have Owen Daniels poised to be this year's Jason Witten -- and don't get me wrong, I love Daniels -- Tony Scheffler might even be better value considering he was typically drafted somewhere around the 11th/12th round, while Daniels hovered around the 9th. In only seven starts last season, Scheffler racked up 49 catches for 549 yards and 5 TDs. And with Darrell Jackson iffy at best and pre-season darling Eddie Royal unproven, Scheffler could play that de facto WR role in Denver the way Witten does in Dallas. Oh, and he was Cutler's roommate as a rookie and they're like BFF! OMG! LOL! which can't hurt.

Maurice Morris, RB, Seahawks
Julius Jones was typically drafted in the 6th round. Meanwhile, Mo Mo, as his friends call him, often went five to seven rounds later even though he'll likely split carries at worst. That's good value, my friends. And Holmgren has named him the "starter" against the Bills, although there's bound to be a rotation, but if he excels he could keep stealing carries.

Amani Toomer
To quote bartender/American poet laureate Moe Syzlak, "Wha-wha-whaaaaaat?!" True, Toomer only had two catches for 12 yards. But looking more closely, he had eight targets -- almost a quarter of Eli's 35 total passes - half in the red zone, and two from the Redskins' 6-yard line that could have gone for scores. Toomer led the league in red zone targets for much of 2007 - yes, ahead of Moss, Wayne, Welker, Edwards, and Colston - and while he won't get the consistent yards or TDs like Plaxico, he's clearly somewhat of a security blanket for Eli and makes a solid emergency Flex player.

Derrick Ward
One game, yes, but Ward is the clear backup to Jacobs. And he looked good, too. If Jacobs goes down, as he does with some frequency, Ward's proven he can carry the load, averaging 94 yards in the five starts last season, with three TDs. If you own Jacobs and don't have Ward, get him. If you don't own Jacobs and have Ward, start the trade talks. If you own Ward but want to own Jacobs, but Ward is.was..wait, now I'm confused.you get the idea.

FALLERS

Selvin Young, RB, Broncos
Denver running backs are like exotic dancers. They'll tease you. You know better than to believe in them. Yet when the sun rises and you sober up, you're sitting alone in a corner booth at Denny's, glumly picking at a soggy Moons Over My-Hammyr that you bought with your few remaining crumpled $1 bills. Still, when Young's promising rookie competition, Ryan Torain, went down for at least six weeks, his value shot up . . . only to quickly peter out when we learned that Young would rotate with Andre Hall. Not a shock, no, but relying on Young to bust a long one from somewhere between the 20's is a boom or bust proposition. Add in the fact that (A) he plays for Beelzebub.er, Shanahan, and (B) Hall will vulture his short TDs, and Selvin's value takes a slight hit.

Carson Palmer
No, not because of his broken beak. It's that Cincy is breaking camp with an iffy running game and two stud receivers with little nagging (Housh) and possibly season-ending (Chad) injuries. Palmer has little else to throw to. Doesn't bode well for a guy who lobbed 20 picks last season. Maybe it's just my ever-growing gut talking, but the Bengals scare the hell out of me this year.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers
"Huzzah!" Steeler fans cried when Mendenhall was drafted last April. "We've finally got our best power back since the Bus!" And all fantasy owners (except Willie Parker's dynasty owners) salivated at the thought of Mendenhall getting goal line carries on a potent offense. But not so fast, folks. His pre-season fumbilitis - so bad that WR/motivational coach Hines Ward gave Mendenhall a football to carry at all times and offered $100 to any teammate who could strip it -- and the presence of FB Carey Davis are, for the time being, reducing his value.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins
Yes, he had a nice final pre-season game (12 carries, 47yds, TD against the Saints) and has gotten fantasy owners giddy about him again. But take a cold shower here, fellas - name one running back who's come back to top form within a year of serious ACL surgery. (Crickets . . . crickets . . . ). I'm rooting for him, since he started off last year in epic form, but it's Brown's 4th/5th round draft position that sours me, considering it was typically a couple rounds before committee mate and "starter" Ricky Williams. Translation? Brown represents bad value since many predict them both finishing at 700-800ish yards and 5 TDs apiece.

Deion Branch, WR, Seahawks
If the Eagles WR corps is merely banged up, then Seattle's resembles Antietam post-battle pictures from Ken Burns' Civil War series. Bodies strewn everywhere. Dogs picking at loose flesh. And the stench.oh, the stench. Optimistic souls think Branch will be back for Week 1. I am not an optimistic soul and wouldn't count on anything from Branch until Week 6, if that.

Chris Cooley
Like Ward, it's only one game, but man this was painful for Cooley owners to watch. One target last night. Not just one catch, but one target. That's only one more than you or I had, and neither one of us play professional football for the NFL's Washington Redskins. Methinks the departure of tight end guru Al Saunders - he's got Kellen Winslow, Sr., Tony Gonzalez and last year's Cooley on his resume - will hurt. (Side note: it's why we need to bump Randy McMichael's value this year. Saunders starting tight ends have averaged 72 catches/ 900 yards/ 6 TDs. Would you take that from a guy who often goes un-drafted? I would.)

Tatum Bell, Thief, Between Jobs
When you're cut to make room for a guy whose hammys are frayed rubber bands . . . and then you steal from that guy . . . and then you get caught on video stealing from that guy . . .well, your fantasy stock -- hell, your human being stock -- can't go much lower. Worse, he stole Rudi Johnson's underwear. My official list of people whose underwear I would least want to own: 1. Jack Black, 2. Rudi Johnson, 3. Liza Minelli.

This is just a sampler plate, considering we're in that short dead zone between fake play and real play. But it's a long year, player values fluctuate, and Fantasy Nation has a lot of love to give. So it's only a matter of time before we owners start to openly weep for joy at the mention of ____'s name, and get pissed off when someone throws an offensive lowball offer for them.

A full Sunday of games is only a few short hours away. Gentlemen, start your man-crushes .

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