Welcome back to the Man-Crush Index. I can only say two things after this past weekend: "Thank you, Jessica" and "I love/hate Las Vegas."
Re: Jessica If Tony Romo weren't dating Jessica Simpson, he might not have had extra motivation to keep playing after being violently driven into the Dawg Pound turf, causing my heart to literally stop beating. See, like many of you, I'm a Romo owner - had just drafted him in a high stakes Vegas league - and all worst case scenarios flooded my mind. Dislocated shoulder, broken collarbone, crushed rib cage, ruptured spleen, scurvy.
But if you were going home to a bombshell like Jessica, wouldn't you want to at least pretend that you're a man's man? Show her you're tougher than Brady Quinn, Sage Rosenfels or those other backups calling her day and night, urging her to dump you? Matt Cassel was probably texting her at halftime. So Romo got up.
Therein lies the dumb luck of football. Anything can happen. Romo gets pancaked by 1,000 pounds of man beef named Shaun Rogers, Robaire Smith and Willie McGinest, yet gets up and throws for 320 yards and a TD. Tom Brady, meanwhile, gets nicked by some spaz crawling on his hands and knees and he's out for the season . . . and this is a guy with an even hotter girlfriend! Makes no sense. (As Tom lay there cringing on the Gillette turf, cut to me in a Vegas sports book, a lone tear trickling down my cheek as Coldplay's "Fix You" plays in the background.)
Simply put, it's not worth stewing over your players' health or going Brandon Marshall on your TV if one gets hurt. I'm a lifelong Pats fan and even I'm not going bezerk because (A) the Pats will still win the weakling East at 10-6 and (B) Brady's injury is even beyond the control of all-powerful, heroic, omniscient fantasy football writers. (It helps that I'm still medicated and in denial. I can't wait to see him and Favre duel in the Meadowlands next week. Gonna be awesome.)
Re: love/hate Vegas Yes, I was out in Vegas for kickoff weekend. But sadly, I fell into the most hare-brained, Gambling 101 trap there is - losing at the tables; bet more aggressively; epic amounts of bad luck (how many times can one man start with 3's, 4's and 5's?!); inhaled the free booze; frequently hit the crazy fee ATMs. (Warning: if you're married, and have a joint checking account, this is a terrible, terrible idea.) In seconds, I was down a moronic, astronomical $1,000. A grand. Wasn't my daughter's college fund or anything, but it was enough to make me feel like puking. Trust me, I'm not hauling in Harry Potter money for my books.
I was doomed. If I returned home to my wife $1,000 short, I'd be writing this column in intensive care, holding the pen in my mouth with what's left of my teeth. Now divorced and homeless, I'd become one of those scraggly cadavers you see at casino sports books, stealing half-smoked butts from ashtrays and limping over to drop their last $20 on Guatemalan harness racing.
But early Sunday morning, after consulting my pals/spread gurus Big Dog and Shug on some possible combos, and adding one key hunch of my own, I gloomily dropped my last crumpled bills on a five-team parlay.
(Fast forward several hours.)
Seconds after a healthy Romo and Dallas closed out Cleveland (cue Phil Savage calling Joe Horn's agent in 3.2.1.) there I was, doing back handsprings across the Hilton casino. The Steelers, Eagles, Saints, Cowboys and -- my aforementioned gut call and new favorite team -- Titans over the Jags (tough defense at home against a division rival with O-line issues? C'mon.) I was practically shaking as I cashed out and netted - drumroll -- $1,063 bucks!
Yes, in 24 hours, I'd gone from feeling about as crappy as a man possibly can - on the "Vegas rock bottom scale" losing huge blackjack money is second only to being hopped on vodka-Red Bulls and marrying an underage tranny hooker at 4 a.m - to finishing $63 bucks in the black. My wife, who's about the most patient woman on earth, was still livid -- and deservedly so, 'cause she realized she married an imbecile - but I was at least still married. To my wife. Not the hooker.
My rollercoaster Vegas ride proves that you gotta roll with Lady Luck this season. Don't guzzle Draino during the lows. Don't gloat during the highs. It's only been one week. And with that, here are my Risers and Fallers.
RISERS
Matt Cassel Talk about a "penny stock-to-Enron circa 2000" value explosion. But while Cassel's now in control of a potent offense, don't expect 30 TDs. Still, Cassel knows this system and it's his job to lose. Simms and Rattay didn't even lace up the cleats, Culpepper isn't happening, so he's worth a shot for Brady owners. Or, if you're set at QB and have someone you can drop (Burleson?), pick Cassel up and trade him to the Brady owner in your league
U.S. & World
Michael Turner: Holy Jim Brown-meets-Barry Sanders! Just wrecked the Lions. But two key words here: "the" and "Lions." Not to diminish Turner's dominance - has he been injecting Botox and/or cinderblocks into his thighs since San Diego? - but the Lions have a putrid run D (318 total yards to Turner and Jerious Norwood; poor tackling is an understatement; bad idea trading Shaun Rogers).
And the Falcon's O-line, which ain't exactly the Redskins Hogs, will face tougher challenges, starting next week facing the Bucs and Monte Kiffin. If you're deep at RB but hurtin' at QB (Brady owner?), maybe target a RB-starved team and package the "220 yard" Turner & a lesser QB for a stud QB, e.g. Turner and Delhomme/Rivers for Romo.
DeSean Jackson/Eddie Royal: Apologies to Brian Westbrook, but Jackson was the most dynamic player on the field. His only value knock is McNabb also spread the love to Greg Lewis, Hank Baskett, L.J. Smith, Jason Avant, Harold Carmichael, and Mike Quick. But Jackson is here to stay. As for Royal, he's also got competition for catches (Marshall back this week) but he's going to be a big part of that offense. If you're deep at WR, sell high on these guys' monster weeks and make a run at Braylon, Housh, Santonio or another stud WR who had a down week. Never hurts to prey on your fellow owners' frustrations. (And for the record, I think Jackson's stock stays higher than Royal's.)
Randy McMichael: Someone I mentioned almost as an aside in my "risers" section last week. Even in the Rams trainwreck offense - every time I looked at that game, Bulger was wildly backpedaling and dumping "passes" four yards behind Steven Jackson's feet -- McMichael hauled in 5 catches/77 yards. Maybe this Al Saunders fella knows something about stud-ifying tight ends, eh? McMike is no fluke, so if you drafted him as a backup to a Heap/Dallas Clark, congrats. If you have a Cooley-type starting, trade Cooley on his bigger name value for an upgrade elsewhere.
Aaron Rodgers: The kid looked poised and effective Monday night, zinging some tough throws under pressure (the first TD to Korey Hall was, well, Favre-esque). You probably drafted him as a QB2. Keep it that way, but a few more solid games and he might let you trade your QB1 or package him in a deal to a QB-starved team.
Julius Jones, RB, SEA: Don't get excited, Julius . . . it's nothing you did. It's just that your RBBC mate, Mo Morris, is out now, meaning you get the carries. Woo-hoo. Another reason not to get excited? Your offense blows, your QB has a balky back and your new WR1 is maybe the tenth best "Taylor" in the NFL. But hey, a non-RBBC back is rare, and that Holmgren's talking to Joe Horn's people says the passing game is not exactly on the rise.
Reggie Bush: Now that's the Reggie Bush that everyone ripped the Texans for passing on! A dervish out of the backfield, Bush looked elusive and displayed his great hands, all to the tune of about 1,038 total yards. And now that Colston is out at least a month, his PPR numbers should soar.
Fast Willie: That was indeed fast. Parker topped his 2007 TD total (2) in one game, logging three scores. The Steelers looked legit, especially the running game, and especially considering the Texans had one of the rising sleeper D's in the league (Mario, DeMeco, et al). Flip side, this bodes well for Andre Johnson (10 catches/112 yards) if the Houston D is weaker than expected.
FALLERS
Nate Burleson: This message brought to you by the Department of the Ridiculously Obvious.
Jeff Garcia: Even before his ankle injury, Brian Griese was lurking in the shadows. Griese looks set to start this weekend and keep the job unless he completely tanks.
Wes Welker: This one hurts. Welker was my biggest man-crush last season. But he's now lost Brady and that precise, accurate timing on Welker's bread-and-butter slants. Maybe Cassel can step in. But the jury's out, so Welker -- not Moss -- figures to be the WR most affected by Brady's loss because Cassel can always pull a Culpepper and just huck it up for Moss, who'll simply out-jump everyone. Hold him for now, of course, but watch closely.
LaDainian Tomlinson: Dear LT, don't take yourself out at the goal line. Don't run three yards and fall down into a pile when you have the talent to fly over said pile or any other obstacle on the field. Not panicking on you, and your 97 yards and 4.6 YPC was ohhhhkay, but just sayin' . . . wasn't the most confidence-inspiring debut for owners who considered A.P. or Westbrook at #1.
<Matt Hasselbeck: The only way this season could have started worse for Seattle fans is if they (A) got dominated by the Bills, (B) had to shoot up their QB's bad back before the game, (C) lost their "top" receiver, (D) a rich, Oklahoma City hillbilly stole their hoops team, and (E) their baseball team went from AL West favorite to bumbling doormat. Oh, wait. All that stuff happened. Hasselbeck has little trade value right now, but if you have a decent backup, or can take a flier on one of the QBs Chris Wesseling suggests in Waiver Wired, unload Hass for a mid-level WR or RB. It's gonna get a lot worse in Seattle.
Marques Colston: Torn thumb ligament. Out 4-6 weeks. 'Nuff said. Guy to watch as a possible riser this situation (besides Jeremy Shockey and Bush, of course), is Robert Meacham. Fantasy Nation was put off by his inactive status last week, but it was only because he doesn't play special teams. Now? Patten slides into the #1 role and Meacham likely starts getting some snaps alongside Devery Henderson and Lance Moore. And Meacham is the most talented. This bears watching..
Joseph Addai:Steven Jackson owners might disagree, but Addai has "biggest bust of 2008" potential.and that's not even one-week panic talking. The loss of Jeff Saturday, the quasi-rustiness of Peyton Manning, the injury to Dallas Clark, and Addai's concussion, and Indy's tough schedule all add up to some potential rough times ahead. Can't trade him yet, but monitor closely.
