Last Minute Cramming

My friend Bob emailed a few days ago looking for all the big stories he needed to catch up on before heading to draft day. I was taken aback he wasn't keeping up to date with our non-stop news scroll. It appears the rest of America doesn't always share my fascination with the daily ups-and-downs of Chris Perry.

There are jobs to go to, families to take care of, and (gasp) other sports. The folks here at NBC seem distracted by this whole "Olympics" phenomenon, which thankfully didn't get in my way Thursday night. J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Kyle Orton, baby!

For all the Bobs out there, get caught up below with the 30 essential news items to know before your draft this weekend. True newshounds can probably skip this article.

And to all Bobs out there that haven't bought our online draft guide: Draft day will get much easier with our up-to-the-minute rankings, projections, cheat sheets, and tiers.

1. Chad Johnson's shoulder is a mystery

Ocho Cinco off-season of distcontent ended with him at training camp on time. He also got back on the field quickly following off-season ankle surgery. Just when it looked like one of the most reliable fantasy assets of the decade cemented his second-round status, a shoulder injury in the preseason knocked him to uncertainty again.

No one knows when Johnson will be back. That's partly why Chris Henry is back on the team, even if Henry isn't eligible to play until Week 5. There is some fear that Johnson could miss a big chunk of the season, and some optimism out there that he'll be back before Week 1. That makes him a risky pick for this weekend's drafters. Plan on him missing a few games, and be pleasantly surprised if he's ready to play right away.

2. Rudi rebound already in trouble

Rudi Johnson looked broken down in 2007 while trying to play through a hamstring injury. The same problem has kept him out for nearly all of training camp, allowing Chris Perry to pass him on the depth chart. Perry has his own long injury history, but he's now our top-ranked Bengals back. Johnson's Average Draft Position in the fifth round is about five rounds too high. We'd rather take Kenny Watson as a deep reserve pick.

3. Marvin Harrison is more likely to play in Week 1 than Peyton Manning

That's one of those scandalous headlines to make you click on an article. Except you have already clicked on this one, so it's just pointless. Both players have a chance to play in the opener, but Harrison is far safer. Harrison's legal problems have magically disappeared, and his knee has looked good in the preseason. Don't expect the old Harrison, but he looks undervalued in the fourth round.

Manning, on the other hand, has recovered slowly from a procedure to remove an infected bursa sac from his left knee. His status for Week 1 won't be certain until the week of the game. There are a lot "whispers" surrounding Manning's recovery that suggest the Colts are more concerned long-term than they are letting on, but it could be normal NFL gossip. We'll know more when we see if he practices or not next week. If you can't wait that long to find out, we wouldn't knock Manning too far in the draft. He's still Peyton Manning.

4. Kevin Curtis won't go for 221 yards again anytime soon

Last year's number one Kevin Curtis is expected to miss at least half the season after undergoing sports hernia surgery. This is an injury that tends to linger, so it's hard to imagine stashing him before the last few rounds on draft day.

With Reggie Brown also banged-up, rookie DeSean Jackson and Hank Baskett will see more throws. Just like the old days of Pinkston and Thrash, the Eagles receivers aren't worth taking early.

5. Ricky Freaking Williams passed Ronnie Brown on the depth chart

With six NFL carries in the last three seasons, Ricky is fresh! He's looked it during an impressive string of practices and preseason efforts. He probably won't stay healthy for long, but it would be a surprise if Williams doesn't get more carries than Brown in September. Brown is still exceedingly talented and will be ready to play Week 1. We bet on Brown having more fantasy value than Williams over the course of the season.

6. Antonio Gates is on track

With more than two weeks to go before the opener, Gates was back on the practice field in San Diego. He quickly participated in team drills, which would support Gates' belief he'll be ready for Week 1. Take Gates ahead of Jason Witten and Kellen Winslow, although the gap has closed.

7. Willis McGahee is iffy for Week 1

McGahee underwent arthroscopic surgery on August 11, allowing rookie Ray Rice to impress everyone surrounding the Ravens. Both the team and player believe McGahee will be ready for the season opener, although he'll probably lose some carries to Rice early in the season. Other players have returned from the same surgery in less time.

We're more concerned with McGahees teammates (Troy Smith is the favorite to start at quarterback, the offensive line is banged-up) than his knee. The Ravens organization also wants McGahee in his playbook more. Rice looks like one of the better true backups to own.

8. Ryan Grant has barely seen a football field all offseason

I wrote about this in my blog at length, so I won't repeat myself too much here. But it seems odd that more owners aren't concerned with a potential first-round pick that held out during OTAs and has been hurt all camp.

8. Chris Johnson hype could power a third world country

I'm becoming a prime contributor. Johnson was initially seen as a third-down back, but he's earned a bigger role in the Titans offense. The speed merchant has the game to play on any down. Bet on LenDale White leading the Titans in carries, but Johnson will nearly match his touches because of his work in the passing game. This will be a close committee. Both Titans backs could be good values in drafts, like a cheaper version of the Jaguars.

9. The Seattle passing game is full of questions

Bobby Engram, the only reliable Seahawks receiver, is out until Week 5 with a cracked shoulder. Deion Branch may be out longer, and Matt Hasselbeck has barely practiced all month because of a back injury. Someone has to fill the void, and Courtney Taylor is our favorite sleeper of the young Seattle wideouts.

10. DeAngelo Williams is the favorite to start in Carolina

This is a big weekend for Jonathan Stewart, Carolina's first-round pick at running back. The power back needs to prove he's ready for a big early-season role after a shaky camp. Williams, Carolina's first-round pick two years ago, has run decisively and earned a starting job. Since Stewart is more likely to play on the goal line, he still has the biggest upside. Like Ronnie Brown, we project the Week 1 backup to be the most valuable by fantasy playoff time.

11. J.T. O'Sullivan is the next Jon Kitna. He hopes.

Of all these headlines, this one would have surprised me the most a month ago. The definition of a journeyman (seven teams in five years), O'Sullivan has passed former number overall pick Alex Smith on the depth chart. In Mike Martz's pass-happy offense, there is some fun late QB2 upside here. Just don't expect him to start all 16 games.

Who JTO will throw to is still a mystery other than Vernon Davis and Isaac Bruce. Rookie Josh Morgan could start in Week 1 and is a nice keeper league pick. Bryant Johnson and Arnaz Battle have been hurt most of the preseason.

12. Steven Jackson returned in time from his holdouts

Like most holdouts, this got too much attention. Jackson returned with plenty of time to get ready for Week 1, just like everyone knew he would. He's our third pick in standard scoring leagues.

13. Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith are suspended for the first two games

You'd have to be under a Ted Washington-sized rock to miss this, but you never know. These two are still top-10 receivers when they play, so the should go in the third and fourth round. Just a little patience .

14. Eddie Royal will start for the Broncos

While other hyped rookie wideouts like Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, James Hardy, and Donnie Avery struggle, Royal has earned a starting job in Denver. He'll probably keep it when Marshall returns from suspension, putting Darrell Jackson on the bench.

15. Javon Walker could lose his starting job

Walker tried to retire at one point during camp. He doesn't seem right mentally or physically, and coach Lane Kiffin indicated he could bench the big free agent acquisition. We wouldn't draft him with Bea Arthur's team.

16. Chad Pennington will open against the Jets in Week 1

This hasn't been confirmed officially, but the Dolphins will roll with Pennington early in the season. That should help the whole offense, but don't expect Pennington to last the season. Rookie Chad Henne has been impressive.

17. Kevin Smith should be Detroit's Week 1 starter at running back

He's still coming off a 450-carry season in college and playing behind a shaky offensive line. But Smith has rendered Tatum Bell useless enough that the former Broncos may not make the team.

18. Julius Jones and Maurice Morris will split carries

This could be truest running back committee in the league. Both players can play all three downs, and they are fully expected to take turns with the first-team offense in Seattle. One drive at a time.

19. Deuce McAllister should make the Saints

I had my doubts about McAllister, who is one of my all-time favorite Saints. He is still coming off microfracture and ACL surgery, and the odds are long that he'll stay healthy for the year. Still, McAllister has played in the preseason and looks on track to share the work with Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas in Week 1.

20. No news is good news for Selvin Young

Denver's depth chart at running back remained refreshingly unchanged all camp. Selvin Young is number one and Andre Hall is his backup. The team hopes promising rookie Ryan Torain can return from elbow surgery by mid-season.

And 10 more quickies.

21. Kevin Jones should be healthy enough to backup Matt Forte in Chicago.
22. The Bears plan to rotate their top receivers, ruining any possible fantasy value.
23. The Patriots plan to keep five running backs, making the roles of LaMont Jordan and Sammy Morris uncertain.
24. Jerry Porter plans to return to practice next week, which would get him ready for Week 1. Reggie Williams has already returned from knee surgery in Jacksonville.
25. Rookie Tim Hightower is Edgerrin James' new backup.
26. Ernest Wilford is now the fourth receiver in Miami.
27. Bills All Pro tackle Jason Peters is still a holdout, which is a big concern for the Bills offense.
28. It's only the preseason, but Marc Bulger has thrown 23 passes for 85 yards in two games with terrible protection.
29. Shawne Merriman has a knee injury that could threaten his season.
30. Brett Favre un-retired. We think.

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