Callups: Bonifacio's Wheels

The Big Obvious this week is putting in a bid on the Twins' new No. 5 starter, Francisco Liriano. The fantasy darling of the 2006 campaign, Liriano is back with a vengeance after compiling a 9-0 record, 2.51 ERA and a ridiculous 73/9 K/BB in his last 10 Triple-A starts. He also recorded six shutout innings in his first start back in the majors, so fantasy owners should naturally be doing anything short of violating a penal code to acquire him. In one league that involved me blowing my entire remaining FAAB ($88) on Liriano, and it's an appropriate measure once all of the trade deadline movers are on rosters.

Despite all the hype, there may still be some value opportunity on Liriano, though it comes in keeper leagues. While I sense that owners are excited that Liriano is back, I've seen some trades in keeper leagues that suggest he's not being valued properly. Liriano was the best starter in baseball during his run in 2006, and his Triple-A performance suggests he's not far from returning to that level. The Tommy John surgery doesn't appear to have any lingering effects, so owners should confidently project Liriano as a Top 10 starter next season. If he finishes the 2008 campaign strongly, he could well end up in the Top 5 for 2009. The window to secure some long-term equity will close quickly, but throw out a trade offer and see if you can grab some value before Liriano's next start.

Major League Callups

Wladimir Balentien - OF Mariners - This feels like the fifth or sixth time I've written up Balentien over the last few years, but apparently it's only the second. That's because he's gone from having an excellent first half in 2007, to struggling in the minors, and finally getting shuttled to and from the majors after brief and sporadic trials. The 24-year-old Balentien has continued to produce as expected in the minors this year, batting .266/.354/.584 with a 49/32 K/BB in 233 at-bats. However, his play in the majors has been poor with a .196/.265/.346 mark that includes four homers and 35 strikeouts in 107 at-bats. The 6'2", 215-pound right-hander still hasn't been given an extended chance, though that could change now that the Mariners have waived the white flag.

Balentien has always been known for his tremendous raw power, trouble with good off-speed pitches, and high strikeout rates. He both swings hard and has trouble hitting good pitches, so the strikeouts have been a bigger issue in the majors than in the minors. That leaves his batting average wanting even if he does occasionally get a hold of one for a long ball. Balentien is young enough that he can improve here, but overall he projects as a .260 hitter even in his best case. However, since he has legitimate 35-homer potential and isn't afraid to draw a walk, both fantasy owners and big league clubs will give him chances.

With Jose Vidro designated for assignment, Balentien will likely start against left-handers for the remainder of the season. He'll have to battle whichever of Jeff Clement and Kenji Johjima isn't starting at catcher on a given day as well, so don't expect too much playing time. Still, Balentien's power alone makes him worth a flier in AL-only leagues down the stretch. A strong finish would secure a job with the big club for next season, so those in AL-only keeper leagues can also make an investment. Mixed leaguers should be wearier of Balentien's batting average troubles and thus take a wait-and-see approach for 2009.

Recommendation: Claim in AL-only one-year and keeper formats.

Emilio Bonifacio - 2B Nationals - Recently acquired from the Diamondbacks in exchange for Jon Rauch, Bonifacio is now the Nationals' second basemen of the future. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2001 and debuting in the U.S. in 2003, Bonifacio has made a slow but steady progression towards the majors. While he did show decent batting averages, Bonifacio's bat only looked strong the one year he played in the extremely hitter-friendly environment that is Lancaster of the California League. What did get Bonifacio noticed was his defense, which draws rave reviews and projects to be somewhere between above average and Gold Glove-caliber in the majors.

Fantasy owners aren't really interested in defense, but Bonifacio's is good enough that it will keep him in the lineup as long as he can maintain a decent batting average. The 5'10", 190-pound switch-hitter was batting .314 with 20 doubles, five triples, and a homer in 398 at-bats before his callup, and that came with a decent 68/31 K/BB. Since he'll put the ball in play most times and has incredible speed, Bonifacio could scratch out a batting average around .280 despite a lack of power.

And that's the most alluring part about Bonifacio's game, his speed. He's swiped a minimum of 40 bases in each of the last four seasons, topping out at 58 and always doing so at a good percentage. He's slipped in both opportunities and effectiveness this year with just 21 steals in 31 tries, but Bonifacio is a true 40-steal threat. He could be equivalent to Luis Castillo minus some walks and plus some defense, but he'll likely settle in as a poor man's Castillo instead.

The Nationals have already handed him the second base job and leadoff spot in the lineup for the rest of the season. General manager Jim Bowden also went as far as to say they have Bonifacio penciled in as the club's leadoff hitter for 2009, though he'll need to justify that position at least a little down the stretch. I suspect he'll struggle to hit for much average this year and into next, and then establish himself as a decent regular in 2010. That said, as long as his defense and promise are keeping him in the lineup, Bonifacio is a very useful fantasy asset given his wheels. He could be somewhat under-the-radar given he's not a top prospect, but he's worth pursuing fairly aggressively.

Recommendation: Pursue in NL-only leagues and all deep keeper formats.

Eddie Kunz - RHP Mets - One manifestation of the Mets' obsession with relief pitchers in the 2007 draft, Kunz was the 42nd overall pick after a junior season as Oregon State's closer. The big 6'5", 265-pound right-hander induced plenty of ground balls in college and posted nice ERAs, though both his strikeout and walk rates were rather unexceptional. The Mets moved him right to Double-A this season, and he responded reasonably well with a 2.79 ERA and 27 saves as the club's closer. His 43/25 K/BB in 48 1/3 innings is rather pedestrian for a relief prospect, but his 3.55 GB/FB ratio is exceptional.

As you've probably surmised by now, Kunz throws a nice sinker from a tall frame. He's difficult to square up (no homers allowed this year) and the double play ball bails him out of quite a few jams. That the pitch typically sits in the mid-90s adds further intrigue. Kunz's secondary pitches, a slider and changeup, lag behind and aren't close to being big league out pitches at this point. Still, Kunz's fastball is good enough to keep him relatively effective. While the Mets will use a closer-by-committee in Billy Wagner's absence, the odds of them going to a rookie like Kunz in the middle of a pennant race, especially after last year's collapse, are slim to none. Kunz probably isn't ready for the chance anyway, and he profiles as more of an eighth inning option than a true closer to boot. He won't have any value if he's not in the saves mix.

Recommendation: Monitor in NL-only leagues.

Daniel Murphy - OF Mets - A 13th round pick out of Jacksonville University in 2006, Murphy showed a solid bat but little power for High-A St. Lucie last season. Overall he hit .285/.338/.430 with a 61/42 K/BB, 34 doubles, and 11 homers in 502 at-bats. This season has been more impressive for Murphy as he was batting .308/.374/.496 for Double-A Binghamton. Perhaps more impressive was his 46/39 K/BB, and he also turned in 14 steals in 19 attempts. Murphy, a 6'3" 210-pound left-handed hitter, was playing primarily third base this season. He also saw time at second, first, and left field, but he's not particularly strong anywhere and thus profiles best as a corner outfielder in the majors.

While Murphy is good at hitting singles and doubles, he's not going to draw enough walks or hit enough homers to be an above average regular. He could squeeze out a major league job by batting .290 and smacking 15 homers per year, but his defense also won't be a plus and he's the type of player who seems more likely to receive sporadic chances and end up on a bench. That said, Murphy is an advanced enough hitter that he's capable of hitting a bit right away, and Mets manager Jerry Manuel announced Murphy will start in left field against right-handers for now. Ryan Church's return, which could be within two weeks, will send Murphy to the bench or the minors.

Recommendation: Short-term claim in NL-only leagues.

Luis Montanez - OF Orioles - For years the name Luis Montanez was synonymous with the word 'bust'. The third overall pick in the 2000 draft, Montanez failed to hit his way out of paper bag for quite a few years. There's plenty of first round busts littering the draft's history, but picking a player third overall who couldn't record even a 700 OPS until his fourth full season in the minors is as bad an example of talent misevaluation as you'll find. Montanez eventually showed flashes of potential in 2005, 2006, and 2007, but he could never keep it together for long and most of his value was being derived from fluky high batting averages anyway.

Now 26 years old, Montanez was having his best, and most consistent, year as a professional prior to being called up. The 6'2", 200-pound right-hander was posting a .335/.385/.601 mark for Double-A Bowie that included 26 homers, five triples, and 32 doubles. He was also showing good plate discipline with a 63/36 K/BB in 116 games, and was leading the Eastern League in batting average, homers, and slugging percentage. Montanez was producing much better at home (1191 OPS) than on the road (768), but Bowie's park factor isn't terribly favorable to hitters and it's likely more random fluctuation than a hint about his true talent level.

Maybe Montanez's power surge means he's having an extremely late-career breakthrough, but the odds are against it. He's in his ninth minor league season, he's 26 years old and playing in Double-A, and he's failed every test he's ever had against Triple-A pitching. Still, the Orioles have nothing to lose by giving him two months of at-bats, and maybe they'll do just that. Now an outfielder, Montanez could get the starts that were coming Adam Jones' way now that he's out for a month or more. Montanez's only competition is Jay Payton, and the Orioles have little to gain by sticking the veteran out there. I'm not optimistic Montanez's bat will translate, but those in deep AL-only leagues can take a cheap flier on him.

Recommendation: Monitor in AL-only leagues.

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