Up today is a review of all the National League prospects called up thus far in September, with an eye on both September contributions and future year value. The American League version of this column was posted on Wednesday.
September Callups
National League
Chip Ambres - OF Padres - I thought Ambres was an intriguing prospect after his breakout 2005 campaign with Red Sox Triple-A affiliate Pawtucket. He received a 145 at-bat trial after being traded to the Royals, but he posted a mediocre .241/.323/.379 line and hasn't gotten an extended look in the big leagues since. Now 28 years old and with the Padres, Ambres posted a .279/.368/.539 mark with an 89/56 K/BB in 112 games for Triple-A Portland. Ambres used to also be somewhat of a speed threat, but he's bulked up with age and had just eight stolen bases on the season.
Ambres has decent power, but it's likely his only attribute at this point and Petco Park will do its part to stifle that skill. The Padres will use him primarily as a fifth outfielder this September. He could be worth a look if given a shot and I still think he'd be a quality fourth outfielder and better than a handful of big league starters. However, the presence of fellow callup Will Venable, whom the Padres seem to prefer, likely eliminates any chance of Ambres getting regular playing time.
Recommendation: Ignore for now in NL-only leagues.
Josh Anderson - OF Braves -Anderson looked like he might be the Astros' leadoff hitter of the future after a strong showing in Single-A for the first half of 2004, but he's never been able to replicate that success in the years since. Now on the Braves, Anderson is getting the call after batting .314/.358/.405 in 121 games for Triple-A Richmond. He has just 33 extra-base hits and 30 walks on the season, but his speed allows one to project him as a fourth outfielder in the majors. That speed, along with just 57 strikeouts, has allowed Anderson to hit for a high average this year. It's also helped him swipe 42 bases in 49 attempts this year (86%) and Anderson has always been a quality defensive center fielder.
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With Mark Kotsay being sent to the Red Sox, the Braves appear willing to give Anderson a chance for the final month of the season. Jordan Schafer may or may not be the club's center fielder of the future, but he's not ready anyway and Anderson could be a solid stopgap for a year or two if he can keep his on-base percentage above .350. The Braves will let Anderson try and prove he can, and the 6'2", 195-pound left-handed hitter is off to a nice start with a .296 average, six walks, and five steals in 54 at-bats with the big club. Since he has plus speed, is playing well right now, and has a clear path to a full-time gig, Anderson is well worth claiming. I think he's got a decent chance to continue hitting for average as well, so I'd pursue him aggressively.
Recommendation: Pursue aggressively in all leagues if speed is needed; worth a small investment in NL-only and deep keeper leagues.
Matt Antonelli - 2B Padres - THE minor league disappointment of the season, Antonelli looked like a potential All-Star after his 2007 campaign saw him post an 894 OPS split between High-A and Double-A. That he was playing in the California and Texas leagues certainly helped, but Antonelli's exceptional plate discipline and strong batting average potential figured to translate at the next level. If he could smack 15-20 homers per year, it looked like he'd be one of the NL's best second basemen.
Instead, Antonelli put up an astonishingly bad .215/.335/.332 line in 451 at-bats for Triple-A Portland. His plate discipline remained with a nifty 86/76 K/BB, but his power and, more surprisingly, his batting average vanished. That no injuries have been credited with part of the slump is almost disappointing, because this huge of a dip in performance is simply otherwise unexplainable. Still, Antonelli was just 23 and it was his first tour of Triple-A, so nobody should be ready to give up on the youngster. Add in that Antonelli had at least paid lip-service to the idea that the slump had a compounding effect as the year went on, and perhaps he can come back strong in 2009. Since his stock is at rock-bottom, I'd recommend buying low in keeper formats; just make sure to keep the expectations reasonable, such as a .290-15-15 player with plenty of walks and runs scored during his peak.
Perhaps the lone positive of Antonelli's season, the 6'0", 200-pound second basemen was batting .290/.391/.473 in 29 August games before his callup. That line included four homers, and considering he only has seven on the year, that's a big improvement. The Padres have nothing to lose by giving him some playing time in September, and he should see the vast majority of starts at second base for the club. I'm not getting too excited by the August improvements, but they're enough to make him worth a flier if you're desperate for counting stats or willing to gamble on some batting average upside.
Recommendation: Take a flier in NL-only leagues; stash away in NL-only and deep keeper formats.
Jamie D'Antona - 3B Diamondbacks - D'Antona was at times lumped in with Connor Jackson and Carlos Quentin as the Diamondbacks' hitters of the future, but he was never quite on par with those two and now he's making his major league debut at the age of 26. And it's well deserved, as D'Antona was having a career year after several seasons of solid but not exceptional productivity. The 6'2", 220-pound right-hander batted .365 for Triple-A Tucson this season while also smacking 21 homers and 35 doubles in 419 at-bats. That gave him an impressive slugging percentage of .604, and though his batting average was inflated, his isolated power was still a solid .239. His K/BB remained solid as always at 64/30.
D'Antona was playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but those are still impressive numbers and they gave him a nice .306/.347/.474 MLE for the season. The batting average won't be repeated quite that high, but I don't see why D'Antona can't be a .280 hitter in the majors while belting 15 homers and 35 doubles annually. That his defense is poor at third base and even worse the few times he's allowed to catch means he'll have a difficult time finding a place to play in Arizona. That certainly won't happen when the Diamondbacks are locked in a playoff hunt, and the presence of Jackson, Justin Upton, Eric Byrnes, Mark Reynolds, and Chad Tracy at the corners make it hard to envision a long-term role. A trade this winter may be the best for everyone.
Recommendation: Monitor in NL-only keeper formats.
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Alcides Escobar - SS Brewers - Signed out of Venezuela in 2003, Escobar was known for his very slick glove at the most important defensive position. He's maintained that reputation while climbing up the minor league ladder, but his hitting was never much to see until a mild breakout in 2008. The 21-year-old hit an impressive .328 for Dobule-A Huntsville, and also stole 34 bases in 42 attempts (81%). Escobar was young for the league and still weighs in at just 175 pounds on his 6'1" frame, so his 24 doubles, five triples, and eight homers in 546 at-bats can be forgiven somewhat. His walk rate also isn't impressive (31), but that he struck out just 82 times is impressive and right around his career norms.
Escobar should add a bit of power down the road, but he's not going to fill out all that much because the Brewers will rightly have him focus on trying to play Gold Glove defense. His batting average and speed potential from a middle infield spot give him plenty of fantasy intrigue, and his defense makes him one of the game's Top 30 prospects. The presence of J.J. Hardy through 2010 muddies the waters some, but they could consider moving him to second base (and trading Rickie Weeks) or filling the club's organizationally whole at third base if they're confident in Escobar. All indications are that they are, so expect the Brewers to make room for the Escobar no later than next off-season. The Brewers won't use Escobar as anything more than a defensive replacement and pinch-runner in September.
Recommendation: Make an aggressive bid in NL-only keeper leagues; stash away in mixed keeper formats.
Dexter Fowler - OF Rockies - A 14th round pick in 2004, Fowler began to look like quite an intriguing prospect in 2006, disappointed some in 2007 while he continued to battle injuries, and then had a big breakout in 2008. The tall, 6'4" switch-hitter hit .335/.431/.515 for Double-A Tulsa during his age 22 season. That line included 20 steals in 28 attempts (71%) while also posting an 89/65 K/BB ratio in those 421 at-bats. The walk and strikeout rates aren't materially different from previous years, but the batting average was by far the highest of his career and Fowler's intriguing power potential once again shined through with 31 doubles, nine triples, and nine homers. Fowler also played well enough to earn a spot on Team USA, so he's only been back in the U.S. for a week or so.
When watching Fowler play it's hard not to think he has elite potential. His plate discipline, speed, and defense are already positives, and he still has plenty of filling out to do for his 190-pound frame. His swing also has enough loft and speed to project 20+ homers down the line. Fowler is now easily one of the game's Top 20 prospects and could be starting for the Rockies by the middle of 2009. As for this year, the Rockies are making another late run at a playoff spot and thus won't play Fowler much until they're out of contention. Even then he'll have to battle Willy Taveras, Ryan Spilborghs, Brad Hawpe, and Matt Holliday for playing time, so fantasy value is a bit of a reach. Still, he's so talented that he has to be watched closely.
Recommendation: Monitor in one-year NL-only leagues; pursue aggressively in all keeper formats.
Mat Gamel - 3B Brewers - An intriguing prospect after a solid 2007 campaign, Gamel was the breakout player of the first half by posting an OPS north of 1000 in each month from April to June. However, it's been a tale of two halves for Gamel, as he's since posted an OPS south of 700 in each of the last two months. His overall performance is still excellent at .325/.392/.531 in 132 games for mostly Double-A Huntsville. That line includes 35 doubles, seven triples, and 20 homers, so Gamel's bat shows plenty of potential all around. That he struck out 121 times is concerning, but he swings hard and makes solid contact when he does connect so I'm less worried than in most instances. Even if he only shows marginal improvement in that area, I still think he could be a .290 hitter.
What to make of Gamel's second half will haunt many an analysis this winter, but Gamel was considered a breakout candidate before the season and now that he's shown the ability to hit for more power he's certainly an elite prospect. He could be a .290-25-40 double hitter in his prime, though the now 23-year-old still needs a year in the minors to readjust to Double-A pitching and face some Triple-A hurlers as well. If things go exceptionally right he could have some value in 2009, but 2010 fantasy contributions are more likely. That his defense at third base is Ryan Braun-awful, or perhaps worse, means the Brewers will need to make room for Gamel or trade him at some point. However, Gamel's bat will surely make that happen within the next year. Like with Escobar, the Brewers won't dare to play him much down the stretch.
Recommendation: Pursue aggressively in all keeper leagues.
Greg Golson - OF Phillies - Golson gets a lot of hype for someone who's done so little in the minors, in part because he's your typical toolsy outfielder and in part because of his status as a 2004 first round pick. The 6'0", 190-pound right-hander is coming off his best season in the minors to date, batting .282/.333/.434 with a 130/34 K/BB in 426 at-bats in Double-A. Golson does have speed, more than is indicated by his 23 steals in 28 attempts (82%), and could be a solid defender in time.
Golson's plate discipline is poor, his swing is nothing special, and his power output sporadic, so I expect him to struggle mightily against big league pitching. He doesn't turn 23 until later this month, he's shown some progress this year and he's certainly shown flashes of being a potential regular, but Golson has plenty more work to do to get there. He has 20-homer upside to go with his useful attributes on the bases and in the field, but that's if he continues to progress in the power department and it could come with a low. 200s batting average. He's only a modest prospect.
Recommendation: Ignore for now.
Micah Hoffpauir - 1B Cubs - Another Triple-A slugger having a big year, Hoffpauir was batting a ridiculous .362 with 34 doubles and 25 homers in 290 at-bats for Triple-A Iowa before being recalled. He's shown a strong bat before, but nothing near the 1145 OPS he had for Iowa this season. Considering that he missed the first month of the season with a strained rib cage makes the performance even more impressive, as does that he's batting .378 with six doubles in 37 at-bats in the majors so far this year. His 14/1 K/BB during that span isn't a plus and he's certainly not quite this good, but Hoffpauir has been an excellent bat off the bench when he's called upon.
The Cubs don't have room for Hoffpauir down the stretch, but he'll get some at-bats as a pinch-hitter and perhaps a few starts after the club clinches. Hoffpauir turns 29 this season and likely won't ever get a chance for a full-time gig, but he could earn a bench spot with strong September and his performance the last two seasons means he's intriguing enough to monitor even if he's probably just an AAA slugger.
Recommendation: Monitor in NL-only leagues.
Joe Koshansky - 1B Rockies -I posted a lengthy writeup on Koshansky the first time he was recalled this season. He had just four hits and 10 strikeouts in 22 at-bats while partially filling in for Todd Helton, though three of those hits went for extra bases. That the club didn't give him much playing time and ultimately sent him to the minors before Helton was activated says all you need to know about the Rockies' thoughts on the left-hander. Koshansky finished the year with a .300/.380/.600 line for Triple-A Colorado Springs, but he struck out 158 times, his road OPS was just 841, and he's already 26 years old. The Rockies may have thought about giving him some playing time with Todd Helton out, but not now with the club making a late run and Garrett Atkins and Ian Stewart playing so well. A trade this winter is quite possible.
Recommendation: Ignore for now.
Wade LeBlanc - LHP Padres - I applauded the Padres' pick of LeBlanc with the 61st overall selection in the 2006 draft, and ranked him the 30th best fantasy prospect from the 2006 draft. LeBlanc's high-80s fastball, curve, and command weren't enough to get him ranked that high, but in conjunction with playing half his game at Petco Park I thought he was interesting. That ranking looked strong when LeBlanc posted a 2.95 ERA and 145/36 K/BB in 149 1/3 innings while splitting time between the High-A California League and the Double-A Texas League.
This season hasn't been as kind, as LeBlanc has posted a 5.32 ERA for Triple-A Portland. He's still striking out about a batter per inning and his walk rate is still above average, but he's also allowed a hit per inning and 21 homers in 25 starts. Simply put, LeBlanc's stuff just hasn't played in Triple-A. Perhaps the now 24-year-old will be able to mix his pitches better or develop a quality third offering and become an innings eater, but for now LeBlanc looks like Triple-A fodder that's stuck in a major league rotation. Despite pitching half his games at Petco Park, LeBlanc simply can't be trusted in fantasy leagues.
Recommendation: Ignore for now.
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James McDonald - RHP Dodgers - A former position player who exploded onto the prospect scene with a 3.07 ERA and 168/37 K/BB in 134 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season, McDonald was having another fine season prior to his callup this week. The 6'5", 23-year-old had a 3.26 ERA and 141/53 K/BB in 141 innings mostly at Double-A. That he's given up 15 homers is mildly concerning, but it's one of the detriments of McDonald being an extreme fly ball pitcher. The right-hander has a plus curve and an above average changeup, but consistency with his fastball, which sits anywhere from 87-to-93, lacks at times. His command also comes and goes, though is generally good despite being reliant on two secondary offerings.
The Dodgers won't use McDonald down the stretch much, but he's a potential third starter for the club down the road. That he's relatively new to pitching and is still pretty light at 195 pounds means McDonald has more chance to improve than most 23-year-olds, so perhaps he's even a No. 2. With Dodger Stadium helping ease the pain of his flyball tendencies, McDonald may well look like a No. 2 anyway. Fantasy value midway through 2009 is likely, so grab him now.
Recommendation: Ignore in one-year formats; stash away in all keeper formats.
Dallas McPherson - 3B Marlins - Professional baseball's home run leader with 42 long balls on the season, McPherson has enjoyed a bounce back season after disappointing in 2006 and missing all of 2007 due to back surgery. Injuries were no stranger to McPherson in the past and he typically has to deal with playing banged up, but that didn't stop him from playing in 127 games this season. In addition to his 42 homers, McPherson smacked 22 doubles while batting .275 with a 168/76 K/BB ratio. Playing half his games at the hitter-friendly Albuqurque and the other half in the PCL surely inflated his statistics, and his .244/.367/.522 road marks are much more indicative of his true talent level.
That said, McPherson's ability to hit long balls has never been questioned, and he could well be a 30-homer threat in the majors right now. It's the strikeouts and thus batting average that hold the now 27-year-old back. His defense also isn't too sharp, but that's not something the Marlins have ever seemed to care about. With Jorge Cantu and Mike Jacobs trade candidates for the winter, the Marlins would be well-advised to give McPherson an opportunity both this September and next season. Maybe he'll surprise us and show a decent batting average, allowing his power and patience to make him a solid regular. The club hasn't seemed willing to do so thus far in September, but that's likely tied to their fleeting status as contenders. Late September value can't yet be ruled out for McPherson, however.
Recommendation: Take a flier in NL-only one-year and keeper formats.
Lou Marson - C Phillies - The Phillies' third catcher for the month of September, Marson has shown steady progress over the last three years and now looks like a future regular. The 22-year-old hit .314 for Double-A Reading this year while also recording an excellent 70/68 K/BB. He only hit 18 doubles and five homers in 322 at-bats, so he'll need to develop a little more power to keep pitchers honest. Marson has a line drive stroke and can now focus on developing his power, so I suspect he will. Even 10-homer-per-year power would be enough to allow Marson's incredible batting eye and average potential to take over.
Chris Coste has played well for the club this year, but he's 35 and the Phillies will likely begin mixing Marson into the big league mix towards the end of 2009. A full-time gig in 2010 is likely, and Marson's batting average potential makes him worth watching.
Recommendation: Stash away in NL-only keeper leagues.
Jon Niese - LHP Mets - The Mets' top pitching prospect, Niese was called to the majors after posting a 3.13 ERA and 144/58 K/BB in 164 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He made his major league debut against the Brewers earlier in the week, giving up five runs on seven hits and four walks in three-plus innings. Niese has a good curve and a quality low-90s fastball coming from a 6'4" frame, but there's still plenty of holes in his game. Niese's command is inconsistent, albeit mostly out of the zone, his velocity is known to fluctuate, and his changeup isn't much of a weapon. Niese won't turn 22 until this winter and has already had success at Triple-A, so the odds of him continuing to refine his game are high.
The Mets may run him out for another few starts down the stretch, but he's likely to have his start skipped on Monday and the club won't have a long leash if his next outing goes as poorly as the first. However, Niese's lack of refinement and only "good" stuff mean he shouldn't be touched in fantasy leagues regardless of opportunity.
Recommendation: Stash away in NL-only keeper leagues.
Steven Pearce - OF Pirates - The Pirates sent Pearce back to the minors on August 20 just as he was starting to get regular playing time. He wasn't doing much at the plate, but when the alternative is Nyjer Morgan there's really no point in making a change. Pearce is back in the majors just two weeks later, and with talented but struggling prospect Andrew McCutchen stuck in the minors Pearce should have a job all to himself. That Pearce was having an extremely disappointing year in the minors before being called up means he can't be counted on for much, but the underlying talent that saw him post a 1016 OPS between three levels in 2007 is still there. He's a good claim for a $1 or $2 in keeper leagues, and worth a flier in September if you're desperate for counting stats.
Recommendation: Claim in NL-only keeper formats; evaluate needs in one-year NL-only leagues.
Angel Salome - C Brewers - Built like a bowling ball at 5'7" and 200 pounds, Salome is hard to take seriously as a prospect given his odd build. Catcher probably makes more sense for him than any other position given that limitation, and he's improved there over the last two years while always having possessed a strong arm. However, Salome's ticket to the big league is his bat, and the spectacular .360/.415/.559 mark he posted in Double-A this season is sure enough to get him noticed. Salome also posted a fine 57/33 K/BB in 367 at-bats while also recording 30 doubles and 13 homers. The 22-year-old native of the Dominican Republic had a pair of solid performances under his belt prior to this year, but he took both his batting average and isolated power to a new level this year.
The three negatives with Salome are his defense, which still needs work despite recent improvements, his size, and a PED suspension he has under his belt. If he can't stick at catcher, there really is nowhere else he profiles well to play. He doesn't have the speed for the outfield, the range or quickness for second, third or short, or the height for first base. In addition, Salome was suspended 50 games last year for being caught with a banned performance-enhancing substance. That hasn't stopped him so far, and I believe in Salome's ability to post .300-15 HR-30 2B type of seasons if given a chance. That he's still young is also working in his favor, as is the Brewers' lack of a long-term catcher in the majors. As a result, he could be considered for a starting gig in 2010 and is thus worthy of a small investment in keeper formats. Fantasy value while acting as the Brewers' third catcher this September is unlikely.
Recommendation: Claim in NL-only keeper formats.
Max Scherzer - RHP Diamondbacks - A fantasy darling during his brief stint in the majors back in May, Scherzer was sent back to the minors and was quickly placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation. He missed a month, and the Diamondbacks decided to work his arm strength back up slowly by starting him off in the bullpen. The right-hander tossed at least five innings during each of his last three starts and had a 2.60 ERA and 36/16 K/BB in 27 2/3 innings since returning from the injury.
Of course, Arizona decided to jerk Scherzer around again and now have him working in a big league bullpen. The right-hander has starter-type stuff and I think he'll make it just fine there, but even if the club wants to keep him in the bullpen that's fine as long as they pick a course and stick with it. Instead, Scherzer went from the rotation, to the bullpen, to the rotation, to the bullpen, to the DL, to the bullpen, to the rotation, and back to the bullpen. And it's all happened in just five months. That's just downright awful management.
Scherzer will pitch out of the bullpen this September, and he's good enough to have some value even while pitching in middle or long relief. His long term value is still very high, assuming his arm isn't shredded by the time Arizona makes up their mind as to how to utilize him. Even if he ends up in the bullpen he's a future closer, so fantasy leaguers should invest heavily.
Recommendation: Claim in NL-only one-year formats; pursue aggressively in all keeper leagues.
Nate Schierholtz - OF Giants - It seems like the 2003 second round pick has been around forever, but Schierholtz is still just 24 years old. The 6'2", 215-pound left-handed hitter was having a second straight productive season for Triple-A Fresno before being called away to play for Team USA. Overall between the last two seasons Schierholtz has hit .327/.364/.575 with a 109/38 K/BB and 19 steals in 26 attempts spread over 766 at-bats. That line includes 53 doubles, 17 triples, and 34 homers, so Schierholtz certainly has decent pop in his bat.
Schierholtz's upside isn't that high because of his lack of plus power and poor walk rate. However, Schierholtz should be able to hit for average right away and his line drive swing is strong enough to hit plenty of doubles and reach double-digit homers, so he could be an average starting corner outfielder if he reaches the upper-end of his projection range.
Unfortunately, the Giants are crowded at OF/1B, with Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn, and Fred Lewis locked into starting roles and Schierholtz, John Bowker, Dave Roberts, Pablo Sandoval (when he's not catching) and Travis Ishikawa all battling for playing time. A trade of at least one of these players is probable, and Schierholtz is likely next in line for playing time among those listed above. It wouldn't be surprising to see him take over a starting gig at some point next season, so he's worth a small investment in keeper formats. In the short-term, the Giants will do their best to find him playing time, so a little NL-only value is likely.
Recommendation: Claim in NL-only leagues; take a flier in NL-only keeper formats.
Will Venable - OF Padres - A 25-year-old outfielder drafted out of Princeton in 2005, Venable bounced back from a down 2007 campaign to post a solid .292/.361/.464 mark with a 103/44 K/BB in 442 at-bats for Triple-A Portland. The 6'2", 205-pound left-hander belted 26 doubles and 14 homers while also stealing seven bases in 10 attempts. Venable had totaled 39 steals over the previous two seasons, but he didn't try and take the extra base as often this season. Still, his 2008 campaign is pretty representative of the type of player he is: one that can be average, or a bit below, at every facet of the game.
Venable is up for the month of September with the Padres and could get a shot at some playing time. He's been filling in for the injured Jody Gerut thus far, and is 8-for-23 with three extra-base hits. Even when Gerut returns the Padres figure to Venable some starts, so a little NL-only league value is likely. If his September goes well, Venable could be the Padres' fourth outfielder next season.
Recommendation: Claim in NL-only formats.
Josh Whitesell - 1B Diamondbacks - In almost the exact same predicament as Jamie D'Antona, Whitesell has had back-to-back excellent years in the minors and nowhere to play. Also like D'Antona he's getting a bit old at age 26, but a .328/.425/.568 mark for Triple-A Tucson of the PCL is impressive no matter the age or league. Whitesell's 136 strikeouts in 127 games are a concern that D'Antona doesn't have, but the 6'1", 230-pound left-hander could be a quality platoon first basemen or DH even if his average dropped down near .260-.270. There's no room for Whitesell with the big club now, but a trade this winter remains a possibility and he's thus someone to watch.
Recommendation: Ignore for now.
