You'll hear a lot of disgusted Yankee fans calling A.J. Burnett's five-year, $82.5 million contract the second coming of Carl Pavano. After all, they are both oft-injured former Marlin righthanders who the Yankees treated like ace pitchers despite resumes that said otherwise. The truth is, however, that the Burnett deal has the potential to be, on paper, much worse.
Pavano was 28 when the Yankees signed him and had two 200-inning seasons, the two seasons before the signing, under his belt. Burnett is 32 and has only reached that plateau three times. Pavano signed a four-year deal, Burnett is Yankee property through his age 36 season. None of that is really fair to Burnett, who has been a better pitcher, when healthy, than Pavano was when the Yankees signed him, but it does illustrate the risk involved in this kind of deal.
With word out there that the Yankees still plan to sign one of Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe or Ben Sheets to round out the rotation, you have to wonder why Brian Cashman and the Yankee brain trust have been so single-minded in their pursuit of pitching. Instead of Burnett and trading for $5.3 million of Nick Swisher, why didn't the Yankees make a major play for Mark Teixeira?
It's a lot easier to predict exactly what he will provide to the team over the life of his contract than it is with Burnett, and, with Sabathia in the fold, you'd be improving your offense to match the boost you've given the staff. There would still be enough money to add at least one of the other three pitchers to the rotation. Sheets gives you the same health risks as Burnett but at a lower cost in years and money. Lowe and Pettitte would give you more stabilty which, assuming an improved offense and defense with Teixeira, would pay plenty of dividends.
It would be rash to write Burnett off before he's thrown a pitch in pinstripes, but its hard to see where the overwhelming confidence in the Yankee lineup is coming from. If they were great defensively, that would be one thing. They aren't, though, and can't just assume that all the runs they need will come because they didn't last year when more talent was on hand.
