Dwayne Bowe put up numbers uncommon for a rookie wideout in 2007. His 70-995-14.2-5 stat line was easily the best among all first-year receivers, with Calvin Johnson (48-756-15.8-5) and James Jones (47-676-14.4-2) a distant second and third. Bowe turned in this spectacular debut despite missing a big chunk of training camp due to a holdout. Clearly, the big fella was ready for the NFL.
Players usually take their biggest mental and physical leaps in year two. Bowe didn't waste this spring prepping for the Combine or the Senior Bowl he dominated in 2007. The season Bowe is coming off didn't ridiculously extend into the first week of January after an over five-week layoff between games like his senior year at LSU. For the first time as a pro, Bowe is fresh and ready.
The Chiefs visit Foxborough Sunday in a 1PM ET game. Herm Edwards and coordinator Chan Gailey's game plan will undoubtedly involve establishing the run, but New England's weakness this year will be defending the pass. Replacing Asante Samuel as the team's new "No. 1 corner," Ellis Hobbs is coming off two surgeries (shoulder, sports hernia). Strong safety Rodney Harrison is going on 36, and after last Saturday's surprise cut of Fernando Bryant, the Pats' new left cornerback is rookie Terrence Wheatley.
While Harrison and FS James Sanders will be responsible for Tony Gonzalez and run stopping, Wheatley and Hobbs each figure to spend a lot of time guarding Bowe. Bowe (6'2/227) has a serious physical edge on New England's bantam duo of 5'9 corners. On Wheatley, he has five inches and 50 pounds. On Hobbs, five inches and about 35 lbs. With a good amount of single coverage likely as the Pats account for Gonzo and keep an extra defender in the box to stop Larry Johnson, Bowe should get open and out-muscle his man all day.
The Chiefs will have to do a fair amount of passing Sunday to stay with New England's high-octane offense. As much as Gailey and Edwards would love to run it 50 times, Brodie Croyle is more likely to attempt 35-40 passes. But can Croyle get Bowe the ball? If Croyle showed anything in his winless 2007 season, it's that he'll force Bowe the rock. A safe bet would give Bowe 10-12 targets and 7-9 catches. Throw in his nasty after-the-catch ability and luck out with a few red-zone targets, and Bowe could turn those 7-9 grabs into 80-100 yards and 1-2 scores.
While you contemplate why you wouldn't start Dwayne Bowe in Week 1, here is an update on key fantasy injury situations around the league...
Sports
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Important Week 1 Game-Time Decisions
Arms
Tom Brady, Peyton Manning - Tom Brady and Peyton Manning? They're playing.
Backs
Ryan Grant - He's probable and likely to start, but faces NFC's best run defense.
Jamal Lewis - I'd bet on him playing, but he could be 'limited' in a hard matchup.
Willis McGahee - Ray Rice is likely to start, see bulk of the workload on Sunday.
Deuce McAllister - Practiced all week, but his role could be minimal in opener.
Kenny Watson - Probable, but he's only a small threat to Chris Perry's workload.
Aaron Stecker - Questionable and unlikely to play after missing practice Friday.
Maurice Hicks - Listed as doubtful; Aundrae Allison to return kicks for the Vikes.
Wides
Laveranues Coles - Thigh injury is unlikely to prevent Coles from facing Miami.
Joey Galloway - Groin injury is still bugging Galloway, but he should be in pads.
Reggie Brown - Doubtful, could be in danger of losing job to DeSean Jackson.
Antonio Bryant - Named a starter this week, but is a risky Week 1 fantasy bet.
James Jones - Doubtful; Packers could use frequent two-TE sets Monday night.
Reggie Williams - He's probable and will start, but could be in a snaps rotation.
Javon Walker - Walker won't start on Monday if he misses Saturday's practice.
Isaiah Stanback - Fully expected to play, serve as Dallas' third receiver @ CLE.
Michael Clayton - Bucs' third receiver is uncertain to play against New Orleans.
Will Franklin, Maurice Price - Neither is expected to be active in Foxborough.
Joshua Cribbs - High ankle sprain seems likely to prevent Cribbs from playing.
Ends
Antonio Gates - Gates is virtually certain to start after practicing fully all week.
Todd Heap - Listed as probable; Heap may be Joe Flacco's go-to target early on.
Ben Watson - Look for David Thomas to be Patriots' starting TE against Chiefs.
Ben Patrick - Cards' No. 2 tight end ready to resume role behind Leonard Pope.
Legs
Phil Dawson - Limited in Friday's practice, but Dawson will start against Dallas.
Already Ruled Out for Week 1
Arms
Kyle Boller, Troy Smith - Todd Bouman will back up Joe Flacco on opening day.
Backs
Ryan Torain - Broncos pray other injuries don't force Torain to be placed on I.R.
Carnell Williams - On PUP and won't play before Week 7, if he does at all in '08.
Chris Brown - Went on injured reserve; Ahman Green to start season for Texans.
Jesse Chatman - Jets will roll with two tailbacks until he comes off suspension.
Anthony Alridge - Rookie impressed in training camp, but is out for the season.
Wides
Brandon Marshall - Will return in Week 2 to face Chargers CB Antonio Cromartie.
Steve Smith (Panthers) - He is suspended for the first two games of the season.
Kevin Curtis - Sports hernia surgery could keep Curtis sidelined until midseason.
Deion Branch - Don't count on Branch being a fantasy asset until Week 5 at best.
Jerry Porter - Matt Jones picks up a start in his place; Porter may return in Week 2.
Bobby Engram - Could contribute as a slot receiver after Seahawks' Week 4 bye.
Chris Henry - Will come off suspension in Week 5 to steal looks from Ben Utecht.
Sam Hurd, Miles Austin - With these two out, Jason Witten will see more targets.
Ben Obomanu - In case you haven't heard, Obomanu has been lost for the year.
Drew Carter - Shelved for the season; Ashley Lelie is now Raiders' third receiver.
Joe Jurevicius - On PUP list to start the year, but don't expect him to contribute.
David Clowney - Jets kept him on the team, but Clowney's return date is unclear.
Donnie Avery - First wideout drafted in April is unlikely to make a sizable impact.
Ends
None of significance.
Legs
None of significance.
Week 1 Matchups to Exploit/Avoid
Lions RB Kevin Smith @ Falcons
Time: 1:00PM ET
There may not be a better week to play Smith for the rest of the season, as the rookie's carries could be cut into heavily going forward with Rudi Johnson aboard. Coordinator Jim Colletto hinted Thursday that Rudi may play some in Sunday's opener, but he's had less than a week to digest the playbook and is transitioning to a new running scheme. The Bengals used power running, and Rudi's never ran behind zone blocks. Colletto is striving for a balanced attack and Smith is a good bet for 20 touches. With their passing game humming, the Lions shouldn't face a seven-man front all day as Atlanta retreats in a Cover 2 zone, so Smith will have lanes. On the Georgia Dome turf, Smith's mid-4.4 speed should be accentuated. He's a high-upside flex start who could be prime sell-high trade bait heading to Week 2.
Patriots RB Laurence Maroney vs. Chiefs
Time: 1:00PM ET
The Patriots' decision to keep five ball carriers (Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, LaMont Jordan, and Heath Evans) on the roster may not bode well for Maroney's chances of being a feature back. While Faulk is suspended for Week 1 and New England projects to be successful on the ground against a mediocre K.C. front seven, Maroney could be headed for an early-season committee role not unlike 2007. Jordan has already been tabbed as the primary back in hurry-up situations and Morris remains a decent bet for goal-line carries. It doesn't help that the Pats lost possibly their best guard, Stephen Neal, to PUP and RT Ryan O'Callaghan to injured reserve. Gregg Rosenthal predicts a very aggressive game plan from coordinator Josh McDaniels in Week 1. Maroney looks like a risky RB2 play.
Eagles TE L.J. Smith vs. Rams
Time: 1:00PM ET
Everyone's talking about rookie receiver DeSean Jackson, but the biggest beneficiary of Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown's injuries could be the Eagles' franchise player. Smith, who's healthier than ever and in a contract year, gets a great matchup against a Rams defense that's never been great in tight end coverage. Smith will be guarded by first-year starting SAM linebacker Quinton Culberson on first and second downs, and 32-year-old strong safety Corey Chavous in obvious passing situations. St. Louis forgot to bring in offseason competition for Chavous, who's been a liability since signing in 2006. The Eagles have installed multiple plays aimed at getting Smith the rock in red-zone packages and he'll be a fair bet to score on Sunday.
Bengals RB Chris Perry @ Ravens
Time: 1:00PM ET
In theory, a matchup against Baltimore is never attractive. But age is catching up with the unit, and that doesn't mesh well with an offense that will struggle to sustain drives and keep the defense fresh. The secondary is in shambles, with FS Ed Reed nursing a shoulder injury that could end his season at any point, and starting CBs Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister both over 31 and coming off injuries of their own. Baltimore could be in a nickel defense all Sunday to give these wounded parts support. Also, DT Kelly Gregg (knee) is unlikely to play, and he is the key to Baltimore's inside run defense. Perry, who's taken over as the Bengals' every-down back, appears primed for a big Game 1 in a season that could see this Ravens defense fall off a cliff.
Chargers WR Vincent Jackson vs. Panthers
Time: 4:15PM ET
The biggest mismatch in Week 1 of the NFL is set to take place at Qualcomm Stadium. The Bolts are minus LT Marcus McNeill (neck), and will replace him with 32-year-old former guard L.J. Shelton. He'll square off against Julius Peppers, a contract-year right end whose athleticism dwarfs Shelton's. Don't expect Philip Rivers to have much time to pass, which could negate any deep-route running by the Chargers. Vincent Jackson's main role in Norv Turner's offense is stretching the field, but Jackson could end up mostly blocking. Antonio Gates' return also doesn't help Jackson's cause. Look for San Diego's game plan to be run heavy and Gates and Chris Chambers to dominate the available targets, but I wouldn't expect Rivers to attempt more than 25 passes.
Panthers RBs @ San Diego
Time: 4:15PM ET
In the same game, it'd be a good idea to watch Carolina's backfield rather than invest in it for fantasy purposes. The matchup against San Diego's stout front seven is already poor, and we don't know for sure how the Panthers will divide carries between starter DeAngelo Williams and first-round pick Jonathan Stewart. The local beat believes it'll be a 16:12 split in Williams' favor, but Williams is unlikely to get goal-line carries and would be a low-upside flex start. This is a game to watch and learn from if you're a Panthers running back owner, not gamble on.
Vikings WR Bernard Berrian @ Packers
Time: 7:00PM ET Monday night
If you've considered starting Bernard Berrian in Monday night's contest, think again. Not only is he coming off turf toe and his inaccurate quarterback a knee injury, the Packers' press corners have Berrian's number. In the two games he played against Green Bay as a member of the Bears last season, Berrian managed stat lines of just 1-10-0 (in Week 5) and 1-14-0 (in Week 16). The 185-pound deep threat always has the potential to go the distance, but that's highly unlikely as Charles Woodson and Al Harris jam the heck out of Berrian at the line of scrimmage and Tarvaris Jackson misses him deep. Jackson was by far the league's worst long passer in 2007, completing a measly four of his 36 attempts of 20 yards or longer. And with squatty guard <a href="http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=NFL&id=724" <artis="" hicks taking suspended LT Bryant McKinnie's place on Jackson's blind side, you can bet that the young signal caller will struggle to drop back more than two steps all night Monday.
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