We projected carries for the NFC and half the AFC earlier in the week. The final eight AFC teams below will take us home.
Kansas City Chiefs
Coach: Herm Edwards| Average Rushes/Year: 415
Projected 2008 Carries: 410
No coach consistently runs more and plays a slower-paced brand of football than Herman Edwards. Herm gave his backs 465 carries in 2006, but he had a competent quarterback then. Brodie Croyle changes that.
Larry Johnson: 300
Jamaal Charles: 60
Kolby Smith: 50
Edwards always says he'll get his backups in the mix, but he traditionally runs his starter ragged. L.J. remains an injury risk, lowering his projected carries. His talented backups would likely split carries if he got hurt.
See Larry Johnson's projection and rank in our online draft guide.
Miami Dolphins
Coach: Tony Sparano| Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2008 Carries: 393
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This is Sparano's first run as a head coach, but we know he likes to divvy up the work at running back. We also know that Bill Parcells teams play to their strengths, but usually have a heavy dose of power running. This team will try to shorten games by running plenty. That's where the talent is.
Ronnie Brown: 218
Ricky Williams: 130
Jalen Parmele: 45
This should be a relatively even split in September while Brown gets his legs under him. As he builds strength in his knee, he should take over as the primary guy. He's also much better than Ricky in the passing game. Still, you can't expect Brown to set his career high in carries after tearing his ACL. If Ricky can stay healthy, he's going to get plenty of work and be a nice RB4 value.
New England Patriots
Coach: Bill Belichick| Average Rushes/Year: 404
Projected 2008 Carries: 420
The Patriots are a pass-first team, especially in the red zone, but they play to their personnel. With five quality backs and a slow-footed line that may have pass protection issues on the right side, we expect the Patriots to be closer to balanced this season.
Laurence Maroney: 225
LaMont Jordan: 90
Sammy Morris: 60
Kevin Faulk: 30
Heath Evans: 10
Expect the Patriots to change up their usage patterns depending on the opponent. Jordan has less tenure than Morris, but more dynamic skills. This would definitely be a committee if Maroney got hurt, which limits the upside of the New England backups. Jordan and Morris are still worthwhile late-round picks.
New York Jets
Coach: Eric Mangini| Average Rushes/Year: 405
Projected 2008 Carries: 395
The Jets have been a conservative team under Eric Mangini, but they are similar to the Patriots: flexible enough to change their strategy each week, and season. With Brett Favre in town, they figure to throw more.
Thomas Jones: 275
Leon Washington: 65
Jesse Chatman: 35
Musa Smith: 20
Jones could once again carry the ball 300 times for a cheap price. His backups are better this year, though, so his touches may go down. Look for more scores and increased effectiveness with an improved passing game. Chatman or Smith figure to get cut, so their carries will combine then.
Editor's Note: Jones makes a fine fourth-round pick in PPR leagues like the NBC Sports Fantasy Championship.
Oakland Raiders
Coach: Lane Kiffin| Average Rushes/Year: 441
Projected 2008 Carries: 435
Lane Kiffin called an incredible amount of running plays last year considering how poor their passing attack was. They were also incredibly effective blockers. They should contend for the league lead in carries again, which bodes well for all their backs.
Darren McFadden: 210
Justin Fargas: 160
Michael Bush: 65
McFadden may start the year behind Fargas, but he's still likely to finish it with more touches. The rookie isn't ready to be a 20-carry-per-game back, though, so don't ignore Fargas when looking for mid-round depth. Bush is the wild card, but he'll need an injury in front of him to truly matter.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Coach: Mike Tomlin| Average Rushes/Year: 452
Projected 2008 Carries: 420
Mike Tomlin picked up right where Bill Cowher left off - running like crazy. The team has more receiving weapons than ever, and may not be playing with the lead as often. We see them getting closer to balance this year.
Willie Parker: 225
Rashard Mendenhall: 155
Mewelde Moore: 40
I've said it all offseason, but most people smartly don't read me in the offseason: Willie Parker is the new Fred Taylor. He will rely on big plays and lead his team in carries, but won't be on the field during the money downs.
San Diego Chargers
Coach: Norv Turner| Average Rushes/Year: 440
Projected 2008 Carries: 440
Norv Turner is not shy about working his starting running back hard. There's no reason to think that will change with Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates coming off injury.
LaDainian Tomlinson: 325
Jacob Hester: 70
Darren Sproles: 35
Marcus Thomas: 10
Tomlinson has averaged 338 carries as a starter. He may have reached that total last year, but was able to sit after halftime in the final few weeks of the season. He finished with 315, and the Chargers have enough depth to spell him occasionally. Sproles should do most of his damage on third downs.
Tennessee Titans
Coach: Jeff Fisher| Average Rushes/Year: 405
Projected 2008 Carries: 415
In a constantly evolving NFL, it's nice to know we can count on two things from Jeff Fisher, decade after decade: Awesome facial hair and a smashmouth offense. Those trends should continue, especially with another high pick in the backfield and maulers on the line.
LenDale White: 245
Chris Johnson: 145
Chris Henry: 25
With Chris Wesseling leading the way, we have admittedly caught Chris Johnson fever. White was projected for close to 300 carries, but the workload has evened out. Once you factor in receptions, we see White and Johnson having close to the same total yardage. White still remains the heavy favorite, however, to lead the team in carries and touchdowns. We doubt Johnson will be asked to carry the ball 20 times as a rookie. With a nasty offensive line hitting their prime, both backs could excel ala Jacksonville. Both look undervalued.
For complete projections, ranks, tiers, 500+ profiles, and countless tools and columns, check out our online draft guide.
