This is supposed to be the year of the quarterback in fantasy drafts. Committees and questions abound at running back. Many top wideouts are hurt, suspended, or disgruntled. So are we drafting quarterbacks differently?
Yes, but we're not getting carried away. According to the Average Draft Position (ADP) data at our brand new MockDrafts.Rotoworld.com site, three quarterbacks are going in the first two rounds. (Brady, Manning, Romo). Manning is often that high by himself.
Still, QB fever has its limits. Brady isn't cracking the top-five after throwing 50 touchdowns. Drew Brees usually goes in the third round, with Carson Palmer a solid value early in the fourth. Ben Roethlisberger goes later in the round. That makes six quarterbacks in the top-50 picks, when there usually would be four.
You don't have to draft a quarterback early to win. Position scarcity still devalues the position. You only need one starter, and there are guaranteed producers available throughout the middle rounds.
I see a huge drop-off after the first 17 quarterbacks, so owners that skip out on taking a top-five option should double up before the backups get gnarly in the late rounds.
Remember, the tiers below aren't static: To get updated tiers at every position until Week 1, show Rotoworld the love by checking out our draft guide with projections, profiles, and custom rankings for all players and leagues. Good luck this weekend!
Tier One: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning
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The dynamic duo face some injury questions late in camp. Brady is practicing, and the Patriots are likely just being cautious. Just remember that Brady's career high in touchdowns before last season was 28. While Randy Moss and Wes Welker change things, he'll be closer to 35 touchdowns than 50 again. We have a hard time taking a quarterback in the first round when position scarcity devalues the position. But Brady is worth the pick after the top 7 running backs are gone.
Manning sounds iffy for Week 1, but we'd be a lot more worried if he was recovering from a torn knee ligament. We doubt he will miss any game time. And even if he does miss a week, he's still Peyton freaking Manning. With Marvin Harrison back, he's going to produce steady numbers. By taking Brady or Manning, you are betting on a wide gap with the rest of the position. That's what we see. Romo is not in this league yet. You are also guaranteeing you don't draft a bust. That's worth plenty.
Tier Two: Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, Drew Brees
Palmer was the QB1 as a 25-year old. While Chad Johnson isn't 100%, the return of Chris Henry helps. Palmer could be undervalued playing behind a potentially dominant offensive line. Romo is prone to the occasional stinker, but his aggressiveness makes up for it. Brees should throw less, but he's still the favorite to lead the league in attempts. Both Brees and Romo will throw a high volume of passes.
We see these three as early picks (rounds three-to-four), although they are likely to go higher. Palmer will be a nice value if he falls to round four or five. If you get a quarterback from the top two tiers, you can wait until late in the draft to take a QB2.
Tier Three: Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler
The quarterback tiers are rather small this season. That's just how the projections landed - there was a huge gap after Cutler. These are the last quarterbacks we see as every-week starters with potential to finish in the top-three.
McNabb is another year removed from ACL surgery. He needs more touchdowns to go with his yards, while Big Ben needs more yards. We worry about his touchdowns declining if the Steelers improve their red zone running. Cutler is our favorite value QB1. He was ranked this high before we knew he lost 25 pounds during 2007 because of diabetes. Plenty of Rotoworld readers will own him this season, and they won't be disappointed. Brandon Marshall's two game suspension is a relatively minor knock. We're convinced Cutler will be the next great quarterback in the NFL. We see these three quarterbacks as relatively interchangeable on draft day.
They are mid-round (6-7) values, although Cutler will slip further than the other two. If you aren't comfortable mixing and matching your QB1, get one from the first three tiers.
Tier Four: David Garrard, Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning
Every-week starting potential in this tier, but there are questions. Garrard is more explosive than you think, but his low pass attempts hurt. Hasselbeck's receivers are hurt, young, or shaky. We moved him down a spot because of his back problems. Anderson is a boom-or-bust pick that could finish in the top-five or lose his job by November. He and Hasselbeck are potential busts. Schaub, like Cutler, threw for a ton of yards-per-attempt, but didn't score enough. He's a top ten talent with big injury concerns. He's our favorite QB2 pick. Eli was great in the playoffs, but the same 'ol player before that. He needs to prove he can be new Eli over a 16-game schedule. He's still reliable enough to count on 3,500 yards, 16 games, and 20+ scores. That's nothing to sneeze at.
These are the last of the high ceiling QB1/2s. If you don't get a quarterback from the top three tiers, you could double up here and still be strong enough at the position.
Tier Five: Vince Young, Marc Bulger, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers
Our favorite QB2s. Rodgers is set up for success in Green Bay, while Young may not come this cheaply in a while. All Young has to do is modestly improve his passing, and his rushing stats will carry his value. We aren't projecting a huge rebound from Bulger because his teammates look shaky. Favre's numbers are going to decline in a new system with inferior talent around him. Remember his numbers from 2005-2006.
If you don't get a top-six quarterback, you ideally want a high ceiling backup from this group.
Tier Six: Jason Campbell, Philip Rivers, Matt Leinart, Jon Kitna
These four could be a tier above, but the statistical drop-off was too great. That's mostly because of playing time or injury concerns. Campbell is the exception, but he's been inconsistent as a pro and is learning another new system. He still should take a step forward towards being a solid QB2. Rivers was ordinary last season when he was healthy, and we expect a decline coming off a torn ACL. Leinart has upside, but also job security issues. So does Kitna if the Lions don't win. His pass attempts are going to take a big drop. These four are worth reaching for after the first nine rounds.
Tier Seven: Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, J.T. O'Sullivan, Trent Edwards, Tarvaris Jackson, JaMarcus Russell, Brodie Croyle, Kyle Orton
We'll believe that Delhomme comes back the same player after Tommy John surgery when we see it. His accuracy was erratic before. Everyone else either lacks experience or has playing time questions. Garcia is an injury risk and his play tailed off badly last year. Jackson is certainly set up for success, but hasn't shown signs that he'll take advantage. Edwards will be a good NFL quarterback, but won't be a great fantasy option yet. O' Sullivan is a fun late QB2 pick. He probably won't keep the job all season, but he could rack up some Kitna-lite garbage yards (and picks) while he sticks around. Orton and Croyle are the bottom of the barrel of quarterbacks expected to play most of the season.
Tier Eight: Matt Ryan, Chad Pennington, Troy Smith, Kurt Warner Rex Grossman, Chad Henne, Chris Redman, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith
Ryan, Pennington, O'Sullivan, and Smith are all likely to start Week 1. Ryan is the best bet to finish the season still a starter. Pennington can help the Dolphins, but will give way to Henne eventually. Smith will give way to Flacco or Kyle Boller. Warner is projected for fewer points than some here, but would be the best fantasy option if he started. He's an interesting handcuff option for Leinart owners in deep leagues. No one else has that high a ceiling.
Tier Nine: Brady Quinn, Sage Rosenfels, Luke McCown, Kyle Boller, Matt Moore, Drew Stanton, Gus Frerotte, J.P. Losman, Trent Green, Todd Collins, Kerry Collins, Kevin Kolb, Tyler Thigpen, Shaun Hill, Byron Leftwich
The most interesting true backups. They would be worth a look if they got playing time. Because of their offenses, Quinn, Rosenfels, and Kolb would be the best options.
