What to Know
Jose, currently a Category 1 hurricane, is expected to weaken to a tropical storm as it passes southeast of Long Island Wednesday
The system is expected to stay well offshore, but wind and surge impacts will be felt outside the cone Tuesday night into Wednesday evening
Coastal flooding and flooding of parking lots and parks in low-lying areas, including parts of Brooklyn and Queens, is possible
A tropical storm watch is in effect for parts of Long Island ahead of Hurricane Jose, which is expected to stay out to sea but still deliver punishing rains, rough surf, wind and beach erosion to the area.
Beginning Tuesday night, rain is expected to pound eastern Long Island with 3 to 5 inches of rain, along with other parts of the Northeast under the watch, according to the National Hurricane Center. The watch is in effect for the coast of Long Island from Fire Island inlet to Port Jefferson, and from New Haven, Connecticut, to Watch Hill, Rhode Island.
(A prior tropical storm watch has been discontinued from Fenwick Island, Delaware, to Fire Island, New York.)
A coastal flood watch was also issued for parts of Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and northern New Jersey from Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon. The coastal areas are expected to get the brunt of Jose's conditions.
According to Storm Team 4, Jose, a Category 1 storm with max sustained winds of 75 mph, could bring 2 to locally 3 feet of surge above ground level in low-lying areas near the waterfront and shoreline during high tide. That could result in road closures and cause widespread flooding of parking lots, parks, lawns and homes and businesses with basements near the waterfront.
The region is already experiencing rough waters and rip current advisories. Some light showers are possible from Jose Monday, but steadier showers aren't expected until Tuesday morning. According to Storm Team 4, periods of heavy rain, especially along the coast, are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday as the storm moves just offshore, producing tropical storm-force winds in parts of Long Island and dumping up to 5 inches of rain there and in southeast Connecticut.
Jose is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by then, but the city and other points along the mid-Atlantic coast could still see up to 2 inches of rain. Wind gusts up to 40 mph with locally higher amounts are also possible. Jose's impact on the tri-state area coincides with a new moon Tuesday, which exacerbates the threat for coastal flooding, according to Storm Team 4.
In Manasquan, New Jersey, residents were preparing on Monday for floods. Some of the worst fears are for Stockton Lake, which separates Manasquan from Sea Girt: in recent years, flooding along Stockon Lake Boulevard has been getting worse, which Manasquan Mayor Ed Donovan attributes to rising sea levels.
On Long Island, people living in flood-prone Shirley can't help but think about the damage wrought by Sandy. Bill Napolitano exhausted his life savings to build his new house along Narrow Bay after Sandy destroyed it in 2012, and now with his home 10 feet of the ground, he's hoping for the best with Jose.
Meanwhile, on Jones Beach, storm-swollen high tides began to overtake the beach Monday evening. Gov. Andrew Cuomo is set to visit the Nassau County beach in preparation of the storm Tuesday.
The National Hurricane Center says people from the mid-Atlantic to New England should monitor the progress of the system. The center of Jose is forecast to pass about 50 to 100 miles off Long Island's east end.
Jose is expected to pull away from the tri-state area Wednesday evening, though some models indicate it could loop back around, lingering offshore in the waters between Long Island and New Jersey, through the workweek. That would make for breezy conditions and high rip current risk for days, but no additional rain or damaging winds, according to Storm Team 4.
Meanwhile, a new storm, Maria, is brewing and swirling toward the eastern Caribbean Monday, with a path that puts Irma-battered Puerto Rico in the crosshairs of the worst storm it has seen in decades.
Maria strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane Monday as it bore down on the Caribbean.