In the southwestern corner of New York where Republicans have predominated since the party's founding in 1854, U.S. Rep. Randy Kuhl Jr. casts himself as the underdog in a rematch against Democrat Eric Massa, a retired Navy commander.
The two-term Republican's surprising stance in a largely agricultural district the size of Connecticut where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 53,000 voters suggests the race is teetering on a knife edge the second time around.
Judging by most polls, in fact, some pundits think it'll be a surprise if Kuhl wins. The seat is one of four in New York that could flip from Republican to Democrat. Democrats currently have a 23-6 advantage in the state delegation.
Under the pressure of public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war, GOP dominance bent but did not break in 2006 as the 29th District re-elected Kuhl by a slim 6,033-vote margin, or 51.5 percent of the vote. This time, President Bush's unpopularity and the severe economic downturn seem to be dragging even harder on a loyal lieutenant.
"It's the cumulative nature of voting with George Bush" and a "go-along, get-along, good-old-boy" approach that put Kuhl's political career in peril, Massa said, adding that it's "very difficult" to find consensus with Kuhl on practically any issue from Iraq and health care to taxes, energy and immigration.
A fiscal conservative and a former Republican, the 49-year-old Massa spent 24 years in the Navy, survived a battle with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in the late 1990s, and talks up his independent streak -- a customary stance for challengers of all stripes in upstate New York.
"I've been diagnosed with terminal cancer, I've been in combat theaters of operation," he said during a recent visit to Rochester to accept the endorsement of the Veterans for Foreign Wars' political action committee. "Can you kindly tell me what you're going to do to make me toe the party line?"
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Kuhl points out his frequent disagreements with Bush in recent months, including helping Congress override a presidential veto of a $290 billion farm bill and his support of a minimum-wage hike. In addition, he said he voted against the outgoing administration 34 percent of the time in 2007.
"It has nothing to do with" distancing himself from Bush -- "I've voted the conscience of my district," Kuhl said by telephone as he traveled between campaign stops in Rochester and Corning last week.
Besides, he said, Massa will have to shoulder public frustration with the inaction and "Democratically controlled nonsense" in Congress since Democrats gained the advantage in the House in 2006. "My opponent's a Nancy Pelosi clone!" he hollered.
A 65-year-old lawyer-turned-politician with a laid-back style, Kuhl served as a New York assemblyman and senator for 24 years before being elected to Congress by a 10-point cushion in 2004. He succeeded Amo Houghton, a Republican multimillionaire who served nine terms in Washington.
Kuhl emphasized his ability to bring federal dollars to the Southern Tier, a conservative redoubt of rural counties dotted with small towns and more than its share of economic woes. It anchors a sprawling territory reaching from the Pennsylvania line to the suburbs of Rochester.
Among his successes, Kuhl said, were funding interstate highway construction projects that will lure businesses to relocate in the Corning-Elmira region and funneling research money into the burgeoning Finger Lakes wine country. Foremost in his mind is creating and retaining jobs, he said, pointing out that his three sons have had to move away for lack of prospects.
When Kuhl claimed the underdog tag in launching his bid in March for a third term, "some people just laughed," he said. But the 29th cannot be considered a surefire bet for Republicans with nearly 70,000 unaffiliated voters and the Democratic machine "pouring huge dollars in here, spewing mistruths and lies."
Massa has raised $1.66 million in campaign contributions to Kuhl's $1.25 million, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Bush's coattails were tripping Kuhl up "even before the economic mess," said Timothy Kneeland, a political science professor at Nazareth College in Rochester. "That doesn't mean Kuhl can't win. He's the incumbent. He should probably spend most of his time in the core, rural counties ... going after his base.
"His problem is this is not a good year for Republicans. Will the Republicans decide to stay home because there's less likelihood that their vote's going to matter?"
