Republicans in the House Ways and Means Committee have advanced President Donald Trump's economic package, including trillions of dollars in tax breaks.

The bill, which could come up for a vote in the full House as early as mid May, includes a provision to make good, at least temporarily, on Trump's campaign promises to eliminate federal income tax on money earned from tips.

Just because the bill cleared the committee with the provision intact doesn't mean it's time for tipped workers to celebrate, says Lawrence Pon, a certified public accountant and certified financial planner in Redwood City, California. Pon expects provisions of the bill to change as it works its way toward becoming law, with the current provisions serving as the jumping off point for negotiations.

"It will go to the House, where it will be debated. Then the Senate will have their version," he says. "We're probably at the one-yard line at the other end of the football field right now."

Here's what the law is now, and how it could potentially change.  

The proposed rules for taxes on tips

For now, income you earn from tips is treated like any other regular income. "You report it on your W-2 along with income you earned from wages," says Pon. "That's the way the law has been for decades."

The proposed law would create an above-the-line deduction on tips received by anyone in an occupation "which traditionally and customarily receives tips." That means a bartender, for instance, would be able to deduct the total amount of her tips from her taxable income in a given year.

A few restrictions apply. For one, the deduction phases out for individuals making more than $160,000 a year. For another, it expires after 2028.

While it's unclear whether this version of the law would include a maximum deduction, another piece of legislation introduced earlier this year — the No Tax on Tips Act — capped the break at $25,000.

What no taxes on tips would mean for workers

About 2.5% of the U.S. workforce relies on tips. While those who make less than the standard deduction already owe no federal income tax, the new law, should it pass unchanged, would be a boon for many.

About 60% of households with tipped workers would receive a cut, according to the Tax Policy Center — one that would amount to about $1,800 per household per year.

Still, some experts worry that the provision's inclusion in the budget bill is more about delivering on political promises than helping low-wage workers in the most effective way.

"Having a tax cut for some narrow, specific type of income certainly feels good for anyone who gets paid in that type of income," says Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation. "I would certainly feel good if there was no tax on think tank employees, for instance. But I don't think that that's necessarily a sound way to do tax policy, to have a tax preference for one type of income."

Critics point out that the proposed law would introduce financial inequalities among employees making the same amount of money. "Two workers earning the same annual income could face vastly different tax burdens simply because of the nature of their livelihoods," writes the Tax Foundation's Abir Mandal.

That's a debate that's gone on in tax policy circles for decades, says Pon.

"It's kind of like the whole Warren Buffett argument," he says. "He earns most of his income through capital gains which are taxed at a lower rate — so he says, 'My tax bracket is actually lower than my secretary's.'"

In other words, even though Warren Buffett is far wealthier than his secretary, he gets taxed at a lower rate because the way he makes money is more advantageous, tax-wise. The government essentially encourages investors of all income levels to hold investments for more than a year by taxing long-term gains at a lower rate. (Gains realized over less than a year are taxed as regular income.)

Deciding how to collect taxes based on the incentives those policies create for taxpayers and businesses "is what tax policy is all about," Pon says.

Questions of fairness aside, Pon does not advise changing your financial plans based on the idea that this bill is going to pass as is anytime soon. "I'm personally not holding my breath," he says.

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