The S&P 500 rose solidly on Tuesday in a broad rally for stocks as traders awaited the results from a high-stakes U.S. presidential election.
The benchmark index gained 1.23% to close at 5,782.76. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.43% to 18,439.17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 427.28 points, or 1.02%, and settled at 42,221.88.
The race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to be tight. Close attention also remains on which party dominates Congress, given that a sweep by Republicans or Democrats could contribute to drastic spending changes or a big revamp of tax policy. Follow CNBC's 2024 election live blog here.
The results could have a significant effect on where stocks end the year, but investors may want to brace for some near-term choppiness. CNBC data going back to 1980 suggests the major averages gain between Election Day and the end of the year, but typically fall in the session and week after. Uncertainty over the results could lead to even more shakiness in the market.
No clear election bets were emerging in stocks on Tuesday. Instead, it appeared to be a broad rally for Wall Street.
"There's been a lot of hedging against potential uncertainty, potential drama out of Washington. We've seen that. And now as we're at Election Day, we kind of are optimistic that maybe some of that can unwind," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.
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"The reality is whoever is given the keys to the White House, if you will, is going to be taking on a car that's in pretty good shape — an economy that's in pretty darn good shape," Detrick added.
Money Report
Banks, which would stand to benefit from deregulation under GOP control, were slightly higher. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) gained 1.6%. Shares of Nvidia rose nearly 3%, but the chipmaker and bull market stalwart would appear to be insulated regardless of the election's outcome. Tesla rose 3.5%, though the electric car stock could be seen as benefiting from a Democratic victory or a Republican one, given CEO Elon Musk's close ties to Trump.
Beyond the election, investors await the Federal Reserve's November rate decision due Thursday and fresh commentary from Chair Jerome Powell on the central bank's policy moves going forward. Traders are pricing in a roughly 98% likelihood of a quarter-point cut following September's half-point reduction, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
The S&P 500 is up more than 21% year to date, an unusually strong runup ahead of an election, and is within striking distance of its record high.
Stocks rally in final minutes, close near highs of the day
Stocks pushed higher right before the market closed, leaving all three averages with gains of at least 1% for the session.
— Jesse Pound
Market could see 'corrective price action' into year-end, Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton says
A volatile near-term market could benefit some major consumer staples names, Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton told CNBC on Tuesday.
"Oftentimes the market would undergo a corrective phase ahead of the actual election day. We have not really had that if we reference the S&P 500, and that would suggest that maybe it's a bit more of a proof point for the market this time around in terms of its reaction," Stockton said. "Our anticipation is that we'll get this sort of positive near-term action, but it could just be a knee jerk that gives way to some corrective price action into year-end."
Staples noted that if the market sees a correction, defensive properties behind consumer staples stocks could make them "do better in a more tenuous market environment." Many of the constituents in the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, including Coca Cola, Procter and Gamble and General Mills, have become oversold, she said.
"We feel at least that this would be a natural place for a rebound for the sector … and at the same time, the relative performance, which has really suffered, should rebound — especially if we do see some corrective action ensue for the S&P 500," Stockton said.
— Pia Singh
Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF has plunged nearly 68% since January 2021
Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has collapsed almost 68% since President Joe Biden was inaugurated in January 2021, but Wood is hardly alone among pandemic-era favorites.
The Invesco Solar ETF has plunged more than 64%, the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund is down 39%, the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF has lost more than 36%, the cap-weighted iShares Biotechnology ETF is off nearly 14% and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF is down about 1% since the day before Biden's inauguration.
By contrast, over the same span, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is ahead about 35% and the Nasdaq Composite by almost 39%, while the S&P 500 has soared more than 51%, excluding reinvested dividends.
Wood can't blame the performance of technology stocks, with 16 of 69 stocks in the S&P 500 Technology Index more than doubling since Biden took office, led by Nvidia, up almost 945%, Fair Isaac ahead almost 400% and Oracle, which increased almost 177%. Tech stocks as a group are 93% higher today than when Biden took office.
Investors have withdrawn some $2.8 billion so far in 2024 from the Ark Innovation ETF, almost five times the $578 million that investors pulled in 2023.
— Scott Schnipper, Gina Francolla, Chris Hayes
Watching the dollar will be critical Tuesday night, strategist says
Investors should keep a close eye on the dollar Tuesday night, according to Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos.
"That will be the most liquid and the most transparent messaging to what we are getting markets to do, because that's where people can put money to work fast. It's going to be hard to put money, obviously, into any sector, credit. There won't be liquidity for that in bonds," he said on CNBC's "Money Movers" on Tuesday morning. "In times of stress we go to the dollar, at least temporarily, especially if it's global stress and even if it's U.S.-led stress."
Investors widely expect the U.S. dollar will become stronger if Trump regains the presidency. Zervos added that many in the speculative community have bet on the dollar-China trade as a Trump-winning trade.
— Lisa Kailai Han
Investors should sell a Trump rally or buy a Harris dip, says Citi's Scott Chronert
Investors should sell a potential rally in the market if Trump wins the election, according to Citi's Scott Chronert.
"Your starting point is a fairly extended valuation circumstance that's predicated on very strong earnings growth follow-through into 2025," the bank's U.S. equity strategist told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Tuesday. "Our concern is that with that set up, you go into a Trump win and you introduce tariffs into the discussion … [and] 2025 growth expectations become a bit more suspect as we navigate tariff action."
On the other hand, if Harris is victorious, Chronert said investors should consider buying an anticipated market dip.
"It really comes down to Trump and tariffs, and Harris and taxes," he said.
— Sean Conlon
Stocks rise on presidential election days, recent history shows
It is shaping up to be another winning presidential Election Day for stocks.
The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are all tracking for gains on Tuesday. If that holds through session close, it would mark the fifth straight positive presidential Election Day for the blue-chip Dow.
What's more, 2024 would be the sixth winning presidential Election Day in a row for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
— Alex Harring, Peter Schacknow
Difficult to quantify Trump tariff effects now, per Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley head of U.S. public policy research Michael Zezas says it is hard to forecast the exact amount Donald Trump's tariff proposal will result in for the country.
Tariffs could result in a change in consumer behavior and lead to less overall revenues, he told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Tuesday.
"We don't think that [a] blanket tariff scenario is the most likely outcome. There's probably plenty of tariffs across a wide geography that could be instituted, but you probably need Congress to sign off on something like a blanket tariff," Zezas said.
"If you don't have that, you're going to be targeting China, you're going to be targeting Europe, potentially targeting Mexico, but not necessarily the whole world," Zezas added.
— Hakyung Kim
S&P 500 sees broad rally
A broad rally pushed the S&P 500 higher on Tuesday as focus zeroed in on the U.S. presidential election.
More than four out of every five stocks in the closely followed index tracked for gains in afternoon trading. As a whole, the broad index traded higher by nearly 1%.
— Alex Harring
UBS: Election volatility is an opportunity to make long-term investments
Investors should use any outsized market moves in the coming days to build better long-term positions in their portfolios, according to UBS. The firm sees opportunities in U.S. and Chinese equities, bonds and gold.
"We believe that U.S. equities are attractive and should be supported by benign growth, lower rates, and structural support from AI, regardless of the election result," Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas for UBS Global, said in a Tuesday note. "We expect these market drivers to remain in place regardless of who wins the U.S. election."
At the sector level with equities, Marcelli prefers U.S. technology, utilities and financials. Near-term volatility has not shaken the firm's 2025 target of 6,600 for the S&P 500, which is a roughly 15% price return from current levels, per the note.
With bonds, the firm expects them to see positive returns over the next 12 months as inflation moves downward. "We recommend deploying cash to lock in yields while attaining a strong portfolio diversifier," Marcelli said, while still noting that yields are currently "too high, regardless of who secures the presidency."
— Pia Singh
Wednesday's market move will be key to election reaction, Bank of America says
History says that Wednesday's market moves will be a strong indicator of how Wall Street will react to the election results in the weeks ahead, according to Bank of America.
In the past seven elections, the direction of Wednesday's S&P 500 move matched the direction of the index in the two weeks directly after the election, according to a trading desk note from the bank.
The tight nature of the 2024 presidential race could mean that traders are less certain than normal of the election outcome during Wednesday's trading session.
— Jesse Pound
Stocks making the biggest moves midday
Check out some of the companies making headlines in midday trading:
- Trump Media & Technology — Shares of the Truth Social parent, which is majority owned by former President Donald Trump, climbed 12% on Election Day. The stock is viewed as a proxy for betting on the former Republican nominee's likelihood of winning the race for the White House.
- Nvidia — Shares of the de facto market leader and artificial intelligence darling advanced nearly 3%. Nvidia is being added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday.
- Archer-Daniels-Midland — The food processor slumped 8% after its fiscal third-quarter and full-year earnings outlook missed analysts' estimates. ADM expects third-quarter earnings of $1.09, lower than the weakest analyst estimate, and full-year adjusted earnings per share of $4.50 to $5, while analysts polled by FactSet forecast $5.21. ADM amended its 2023 10-K and postponed Wednesday's scheduled webcast, according to FactSet.
Read the full list here.
— Brian Evans
Trump Media sees high trading activity on Election Day
More Trump Media & Technology shares than usual are exchanging hands on Tuesday as Americans head to the polls.
Trading volume for the Truth Social operator's stock surpassed 82 million in early afternoon trading. By comparison, less than 52.1 million shares were traded in an average trading day over the past month.
This uptick in activity comes as America awaits the results of Tuesday's presidential election. Investors see the stock — which trades under a ticker that is also the initials of Republican nominee Donald Trump — as a proxy for betting on his odds of victory. The former president owns more than half of shares.
Shares of Trump Media climbed more than 14% in Tuesday midday trading.
— Alex Harring
Dow climbs 400 points
Stocks have continued to add to their gains throughout the day. The Dow is now up 400 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have each gained more than 1%.
— Jesse Pound
Loop Capital says buy Snap and Meta, adjusts price targets
Loop Capital sees more growth ahead for both Snap and Meta.
The investment bank has a buy rating on both names, and its updated price targets imply around 32% upside for Snap and nearly 17% upside for Meta, as of Monday's close.
"While North America has plateaued at 100M, Snap is still a big network with loads of engagement and a demo that is highly relevant to advertisers," the bank's analysts wrote in a note to clients on Monday. "We believe that Snap user engagement is meaningfully under-monetized and the company is making progress."
The bank also believes Snap would be the largest beneficiary of a possible TikTok ban next year, as it believes a ban would redistribute user engagement and revenue. This comes as shares of the company have fallen more than 28% this year.
Meanwhile, Meta shares have surged more than 58% in 2024. The stock could go even higher due to the company's big investments in artificial intelligence, according to the bank.
"We think that with continued improvement in near-term results driven by AI and longer-term opportunities from a multitude of gen-AI efforts, Meta valuation could continue its upward motion toward the +30X PE of other mega-cap tech leaders," the bank said in a separate Monday note.
— Sean Conlon
Oil market could face volatility if Trump wins, Goldman Sachs says
A second Trump administration is more likely to bring volatility to the oil market, according to Goldman Sachs.
Donald Trump could tighten sanctions on Iran, reducing supply from the Islamic Republic and putting upward pressure on prices in the short term, the investment bank told clients in a Monday note.
Oil prices rose about 1% as voters in the U.S. headed to the polls. U.S. crude oil had gained 35 cents, or 0.49%, to $71.82 per barrel by 8:56 a.m. ET. Global benchmark Brent crude futures added 33 cents, or 0.44%, to $75.41 per barrel.
"Conceptually, the impact of a potential second Trump term on oil prices is ambiguous," Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, vice president of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, told clients in a note Monday.
Over the medium term, however, a second Trump administration could heighten trade tensions through tariffs, putting downward pressure on global oil demand and prices, according to Goldman.
— Spencer Kimball
Stocks could sell off after election, Nomura says
Strategists at Nomura think stocks could see a bout of selling after the U.S. presidential election, given current positioning among hedge funds and other major investors.
"The substantial accumulation of long positions in U.S. equities by real-money investors and macro hedge funds (among others) suggests that the market reaction to a red sweep could be an initial spike followed not long thereafter by a bout of 'selling the fact,'" Nomura said in a note.
Indeed, the S&P 500 is less than 3% below a record high set Oct. 17.
— Fred Imbert
Bitcoin tops $70,000 as voters head to polls, memecoins surge
Cryptocurrencies were higher on Tuesday as investors looked forward to results from the U.S. presidential election. Bitcoin rose 3% to $70,053.56, according to Coin Metrics, helped by the rise in stocks, and is now 5% off its all-time high, after coming within spitting distance of it last week.
Memecoins dogecoin and Shiba Inu coin soared 12% and 8%, respectively. Stocks tied to the price of the cryptocurrency jumped. Coinbase gained 3% and MicroStrategy, which often trades as a high beta play on the price of bitcoin, advanced 8%.
The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump for the next presidency has been called the most important election in the crypto industry's lifetime. Many view a Harris win as a threat to crypto — the extent to which has been debated throughout this election cycle. Trump, on the other hand, is seen by many as a force for good in the industry after he presented himself earlier this year as the pro-crypto candidate and has been courting the industry more directly than Harris has.
For more on what the election's implications are for crypto, read our full story here.
— Tanaya Macheel
Service sector reading hits highest since July 2022
Service sector activity in October expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years, according to an Institute for Supply Management survey Tuesday.
The ISM services index showed that 56% of firms indicated growth during the month, up from 54.9% for the prior month and the highest reading since July 2022. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 53.7%.
Within the survey, growth came in employment and supplier deliveries, while the prices index edged lower and new export orders dropped sharply.
— Jeff Cox
Chemical stock Celanese tanks after dividend cut
Chemical stock Celanese was the worst performer in the S&P 500 in early trading, falling 23%. The move came after the company said it would slash its quarterly dividend by 95% due to the "current demand environment."
Celanese also missed estimates on the top and bottom lines for the third quarter. Celanese reported $2.44 in adjusted earnings per share on $2.65 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting $2.85 in earnings per share and $2.70 billion of revenue.
— Jesse Pound
Currency market volatility spiking with election
The dollar index fell 0.3% to 103.58 on Tuesday as traders brace for the results of the U.S. presidential election.
"Markets are holding their breath as America votes, with expected currency volatility across short tenors hitting levels we haven't seen since the 2020 election showdown or the Brexit vote of 2016," said George Vessey, lead FX strategist at Convera.
Vessey added that volatility in the exchange rate between the greenback and the Chinese yuan has surged to highs from the 2020 election. The dollar was last down 0.1% on the day at 7.10 yuan. Week to date, the dollar has weakened 0.5% against the yuan.
— Hakyung Kim
Stocks open slightly higher
U.S. equities were modestly higher when trading began in New York. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. The Dow was little changed.
— Jesse Pound
Bank of America's election playbook
Bank of America says the stock market will react favorably if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election, along with other red sweep scenarios, versus if Kamala Harris wins and blue sweep cases.
The firm highlighted online brokers such as Robinhood and Schwab, as well as U.S. cash equity exchanges Nasdaq and Intercontinental Exchange as beneficiaries from Republican sweep scenarios. Potential headwinds from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's equity market structure proposal would likely be "watered down" in a Republican win, the firm said.
Meanwhile, passive managers such as BlackRock would react positively in the short term from a Harris win on expectations of a more regulatory focus on fees, the note added.
However, Bank of America believes Trump's plans to introduce wide-ranging tariffs and heavily restrict immigration would lead to higher inflation and lower real GDP in the longer term.
"We would also expect a larger fiscal deficit under Trump given his plans to cut taxes, albeit the deficit would also expand under a Harris administration. Tariffs and restricting immigration should mute the positive effects of lower taxes/regulations on our coverage," analyst Craig Siegenthaler wrote in a Tuesday note.
— Hakyung Kim
U.S. trade imbalance hits highest point since April 2022
The U.S. trade deficit swelled by more than 19%, hitting its highest level since April 2022, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
The goods and deficits imbalanced jumped to $84.4 billion, slightly higher than the $84 billion Dow Jones forecast and up about $10.3 billion from August.
Imports, which subtract from GDP, rose by $10.3 billion while exports declined by $3.2 billion. China led by nation, with a $26.9 billion deficit, while the deficit increased most with the European Union, rising $4.7 billion.
— Jeff Cox
Stocks making the biggest moves before the bell: Trump Media, Hims & Hers and more
These are the stocks moving the most in premarket trading:
- Trump Media & Technology — Shares of the Truth Social parent, which has a majority ownership by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, climbed about 9% during premarket trading on Election Day.
- Hims & Hers Health — The telehealth stock popped 7.2% after third-quarter earnings exceeded expectations of analysts polled by FactSet on both lines.
- Palantir — The cybersecurity stock surged 14% on strong third-quarter results.
Read the full list of stocks moving here.
— Lisa Kailai Han
First Solar remains top pick at Citi heading into election
Citi is staying bullish on First Solar ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday.
The investment bank said the solar technology company remains a top pick, and its price target implies more than 19% upside from Monday's close. While shares slid more than 1% following the bank's move, the stock has soared more than 23% in 2024.
Notably, the bank sees a buying opportunity for investors before the Commerce Department's upcoming announcement on its antidumping duty, or AD, determinations.
"FSLR's stock is down by ~15% since the preliminary [countervailing duty] announcement, which could make for an attractive entry point ahead of the preliminary AD announcement in late November," analyst Vikram Bagri wrote in a Tuesday note. "FSLR remains our top pick within the renewables space ahead of impending U.S. presidential elections."
— Sean Conlon
Deutsche Bank downgrades Marqeta, says uncertainty is likely to ‘linger’
Several headwinds may drive shares of Marqeta even lower, according to Deutsche Bank.
Shares plunged nearly 40% in the premarket on the heels of analyst Bryan Keane downgrading the stock to hold from buy. His updated price target reflects nearly 33% downside from Monday's close. The stock had already fallen nearly 15% this year.
"While a number of the regulatory changes that MQ noted on the call have been known since last year, the company severely underestimated the operational burden these changes made on its bank partners which has led to delays in launching new programs (only 5 of 15 expected launches occurred in 3Q24)," the analyst said in a Tuesday note.
"Further, a number of MQ's more sophisticated fintech clients opted to take aspects of their program mgmt. and bank relationships in-house," he added.
On top of this, Keane sees the company's full-year 2026 forecast "at risk" given that it sees its gross profit growth expectations for next year being similar to the current quarter. This comes as the company issued weaker-than-expected guidance for the period.
"We expect the confusion and uncertainty around MQ's core embedded finance market to linger," he continued.
— Sean Conlon
Boeing machinists vote to approve contract, ending strike
Boeing machinists voted to approve a new contract on Monday, bringing an end to a seven-week strike.
The deal includes 38% wage increases over four years, and was approved by 59% of the machinists. It was the third vote since September.
The strike was one of several obstacles facing new CEO Kelly Ortberg, who took over the beleaguered aerospace giant in August. Shares of Boeing were up 1.6% in premarket trading.
— Jesse Pound
Trump Media shares gain on Election Day
Shares of Trump Media & Technology rose more than 8% on Tuesday, with traders betting a second Trump presidency would boost the business prospects of the Truth Social operator.
The stock, which trades under the ticker DJT — former President Trump's initials — is also seen as a proxy for the Republican candidate's prospects of retaking the White House.
— Fred Imbert
Restaurant Brands International falls on earnings
Shares of Burger King parent Restaurant Brands International were down more than 4% after the company reported mixed third-quarter results.
Restaurant Brands earned 93 cents per share adjusted. That may not be comparable to an LSEG estimate of 95 cents per share. Revenue of $2.29 billion fell short of a $2.31 billion forecast.
— Fred Imbert
European markets little changed as Tuesday trading begins
European markets were little changed as trading kicked off on Tuesday.
At 8:06 a.m. London time, the pan-European Stoxx 600 was down 0.06%. Mining stocks added 0.75%, while oil and gas stocks dipped 0.52%.
— Sophie Kiderlin
Australia's central bank keeps rates unchanged at 4.35%
Australia's central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 4.35% for the eighth meeting in a row, in line with expectations from economists polled by Reuters.
In contrast to other central banks in advanced economies, the Reserve Bank of Australia wrote in its statement that "inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022," but also added that underlying inflation is too high.
Economists from ANZ, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and HSBC had similarly expected the central bank to hold the cash rate steady, with ANZ forecasting that the first cut will come in February 2025.
— Lim Hui Jie, Lee Ying Shan
China's services activity grew at fastest pace in three months, says private survey
China's services sector in October saw its fastest growth in three months, a private sector survey showed.
The Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers' index climbed to 52.0 in October, up from 50.3 in September on the back of increased confidence on future output and increase in business activity. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a figure below 50 reflects a contraction.
"Growth in new business partly reflected another solid rise in export orders. This led to a quicker rise in business activity while the level of backlogged work also increased," the survey's economists wrote.
China's service providers also continued to raise staffing levels in October.
— Lee Ying Shan
Stocks making the biggest moves in overnight trading
Here are some of the stocks making the biggest moves in overnight trading:
- Palantir Technologies — Shares popped 13%. The software company surpassed Wall Street's third-quarter estimates, posting adjusted earnings of 10 cents per share on $726 million in revenue.
- Wynn Resorts — The resort and casino operator's stock dropped nearly 4% on third-quarter results that fell short of Wall Street's estimates on the top and bottom lines.
- NXP Semiconductors — The Netherlands-based semiconductor company shed more than 5% on disappointing fourth-quarter guidance, citing macro weakness in Europe and the Americas and in the industrial and internet of things market.
Read the full list of stocks here.
— Samantha Subin
Stock futures open higher ahead of presidential election
Stock futures opened higher in overnight trading Monday.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 25 points, or 0.06%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.1%. Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.15%.
— Samantha Subin