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S&P 500 closes higher for a fourth day as traders prepare for consumer inflation data: Live updates

S&P 500 closes higher for a fourth day as traders prepare for consumer inflation data: Live updates
CNBC

Stocks ticked higher Wednesday as traders awaited the release of new U.S. consumer inflation numbers and Treasury yields continued to retreat.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by 0.19%, or 65.57 points, to close at 33,804.87. The S&P 500 gained 0.43%, ending at 4,376.95. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.71%, landing at 13,659.68 and closing above its 50-day moving average, a first since Sept. 14.

It was also the fourth straight winning day for the three major averages.

The consumer price index report for September is slated for release Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect an increase of 0.3% from the previous month and 3.6% year over year. Investors will keep a close eye on the data as they search for clues on future Federal Reserve policy moves. The numbers will come a day after traders pored through hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation figures.

The producer price index rose 0.5% for September, coming out higher than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% rise. The figure still represented a slowing from the 0.7% producer prices increase in the prior month.

The majority of Fed officials indicated at their September meeting that one more hike would be likely, minutes released Wednesday showed.

"A majority of participants judged that one more increase in the target federal funds rate at a future meeting would likely be appropriate, while some judged it likely that no further increases would be warranted," the summary of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting stated.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined about 9 basis points on Wednesday, but hit a 16-year high earlier this month. Since the September Fed meeting, policymakers have indicated that higher yields could negate the need for future hikes.

"[The market is] really confused right now, but I think the overall trend of PPI, CPI and today's Fed minutes are going to push the 10-year Treasury yield higher over the coming months," said Derek Schug, head of portfolio management at Kestra Investment Management.

"There's some concerns for stocks to be overly bullish but again, inflation is generally good and higher interest rates are generally not a bad thing for stocks over time," he said.

To be sure, despite the economy being more resilient than expected, investors noted that inflation will continue to remain sticky.

Earlier Wednesday, Exxon Mobil agreed to buy shale driller Pioneer Natural Resources in an all-stock transaction worth $59.5 billion, the largest merger announced on Wall Street this year. Pioneer shares were up 1.4%, while Exxon was down by about 3.6%.

Sandal manufacturer Birkenstock slumped more than 12% after making its debut on Wednesday. Shares were priced at $46 each, but they tumbled to $40.20 by the end of the session.

Investors continue to assess the ongoing war unfolding between Israel and Hamas after the militant group launched an attack on Israeli civilians in what marked the deadliest offensive the country's experienced in 50 years. President Joe Biden condemned the Hamas attacks as terrorism in remarks Tuesday and said that the United States stands with Israel.

Stocks close higher Wednesday

Here's how the major indexes ended Wednesday's trading session:

— Pia Singh

Be cautious on credit card stocks ahead of earnings, Oppenheimer says

Investors should lower their expectations for credit card companies ahead of the third-quarter earnings season, Oppenheimer analyst Dominick Gabrielle said in a note to clients.

"Valuation today at the surface suggests stocks are cheap but with late fee revenue for some peers likely impacting revenue in 2024, stocks excluding AXP aren't as cheap as they seem. We remain overall cautious," Gabrielle said in a note to clients late Tuesday.

Even with top pick American Express, Gabrielle is guarding his optimism. Oppenheimer cut its price target on the stock to $175 per share from $190.

The stock was trading at about $150 per share on Wednesday afternoon, down less than 1% on the day.

— Jesse Pound

Raymond James upgrades Take-Two Interactive Software to outperform

Raymond James upgraded shares of Take-Two Interactive Software to outperform from market perform ahead of some new release information it anticipates for Grand Theft Auto 6.

"Following a relatively slower period in front-line releases, we see a number of reasons to become incrementally more optimistic in the company's near- and medium-term path forward," Andrew Marok wrote in a Wednesday note.

Among those reasons, Marok included the firm's expectation that information and trailers on Grand Theft Auto 6 "should take away the most prominent point of uncertainty around the financial trajectory" for the company. The analyst's $170 price target implies about 17% upside from Tuesday's close.

— Sarah Min

Smead Value Fund's Bill Smead says oil, gas and real estate will be inflation beneficiaries, lists top energy picks

Smead Value Fund portfolio manager Bill Smead thinks inflation will remain a long-term headwind and says oil, gas and real estate are the best ways to play price pressures.

"We are completely convinced that inflation is too many people with too much money chasing too few goods," Smead told CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Wednesday. He added that his fund remains focused on companies that are "going to suckle on the necessities spending of the households formed by the  92 million millennials" in the U.S.

Some of his top energy holdings include Occidental Petroleum and Conoco Phillips, as well as real estate company's like D.R. Horton and Simon Property Group.

— Brian Evans

Watch energy amid period of geopolitical risk, says Citi

With the Israel-Hamas raising concerns about oil supplies, Citi says energy prices will likely be the main driver of the conflict's impact on equity markets.

"Historically, equity markets are usually higher 12m after the start of geopolitical conflicts despite initial volatility. However, equities have seen significant downside when geopolitical risks catalyze energy crises," global equity strategist David Groman said in a Tuesday note.

To be sure, Groman added that a meaningiful "geoeconomic risk" had been applied to global equity markets even prior to the outbreak of the war.

— Hakyung Kim

Cava stock is a buy following a recent selloff, Morgan Stanley says

Fast casual restaurant chain Cava has a promising growth outlook, according to Morgan Stanley.

The investment firm upgraded Cava stock to overweight on Wednesday. Shares traded higher by 0.7%.

"A small early lockup expiration in Sept, presumably some IPO holders selling, and higher short interest has affected CAVA, but we see this pressure lessening," said analyst Brian Harbour. "Valuation on near term numbers is still not immodest, likely a point of pushback, but we are sticking with the framework laid out in our recent initiation, adjusting for discount rates, which still leaves us with ~30% upside."

CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Weak demand at 10-year Treasury auction sends yields higher

Demand was lackluster for $35 billion of 10-year Treasurys at the 1 p.m. ET Wednesday auction, with Treasury dealers buying 18.7% of the total supply vs a more usual 15.6% average, according to Ben Jeffery, VP for U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets. The auction resulted in a 10-year yield of 4.61%, up from 4.289% at the September auction.

Afterward, 10-year open market yields rose as high as 4.6180% against an early morning low of 4.544%.

The auction saw weak demand, with "the tail" at 1.7 basis points (0.017%), Jeffery wrote. "The tail' measures the high yield bid minus the note's when-issued yield. A positive tail denotes weak demand and a negative tail strong demand.

Non-dealer bidding constituted 81.3% of the total vs a usual 84.4% average, Jeffery wrote, adding that "[s]ince the result, rates have ticked higher in the follow through."

— Scott Schnipper

Bank of America upgrades PNC to neutral rating

PNC's strong capital positioning will give it a leg up over competitors, according to Bank of America, which assigned shares to a neutral rating.

"Relative capital positioning a significant positive vs. peers, many of whom are having to reshape business models and shed loan portfolios in order to adjust to new capital/liquidity realities. This should offer PNC market share opportunities," wrote analyst Ebrahim Poonawala. "Mgmt. has indicated announcing an efficiency plan which should keep expense growth in-check in 2024."

On the flip side, Poonawala noted that a premium valuation and cyclical headwinds kept him from becoming too bullish on the stock.

— Lisa Kailai Han, Michael Bloom

Fed officials will maintain ‘restrictive’ policy until inflation eases, Sept. minutes show

Federal Reserve officials at their September meeting differed on the need for more policy tightening, but indicated rates would need to stay elevated until the policymakers are convinced inflation is heading back to 2%.

One more hike would be likely, minutes released Wednesday showed.

"A majority of participants judged that one more increase in the target federal funds rate at a future meeting would likely be appropriate, while some judged it likely that no further increases would be warranted," the summary of the Fed's Sept. 19-20 policy meeting stated.

Read more about the Fed's meeting here.

— Jeff Cox, Pia Singh

Birkenstock shares plunge after debut below IPO price

German shoe brand Birkenstock began trading at $41 per share on Wednesday, below the company's IPO price of $45 per share. Shares were down 10.3% on Wednesday afternoon.

The underwhelming debut could tamp down enthusiasm about the IPO market, which has just started to reopen after the sharp decline for stocks in 2022.

— Jesse Pound

Stocks making the biggest midday moves.

Here are some of the names making moves in midday trading:

  • Humana — The health-insurer stock shed 2.6% after Humana CEO Bruce Broussard said he will step down from his position in the latter half of 2024. Jim Rechtin of Envision Healthcare has been named as his successor.
  • Amgen — Share of the biopharma company added 4.6% after being upgraded from Leerink to outperform. Analyst David Risinger cited an expanding earnings multiple and pipeline newsflow as catalysts.
  • Shoals Technologies — The stock rallied 4% after being upgraded by Goldman Sachs to buy from neutral. The investment bank cited valuation and the potential for gross margin upside.

To see more stocks making moves, read the full story here.

— Michelle Fox

Pay attention to earnings revisions over the near term, Citi says

Stock pickers should pay attention to earnings revisions over the near term as macro risks remain, according to Citi.

Markets have started pricing in higher yields, elevated oil prices and a stronger dollar, but they're not positioned for widening credit spreads, analyst Hong Li said in a Tuesday note. Li expects traders should pay attention to company fundamentals to pick stocks and position over the near term.

"The gap between the implied and actual credit spreads continues to widen, suggesting that the investors are not pricing in a higher recession risk even as the sentiment is moving away from the soft-landing scenario," Li wrote.

"We like Earnings Revision in the near-term and Growth for the longer-term as they are better positioned for the higher macro risk environment and a potential recession down the road," Li added.

— Sarah Min

UBS upgrades Boeing stock, cites rising flight demand

UBS upgraded Boeing to a buy rating as the airline's flight demand outpaces supply.

"We see a long runway for growth in new aircraft deliveries, with both production volume and margin upside to consensus," wrote analyst Gavin Parsons. "We see higher production rates/margins/cash flow and easing supply chain bottlenecks driving higher estimates and multiples."

Shares added 0.8% on Wednesday. CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Risks loom despite steady third-quarter earnings estimates, says Barclays

Resilient earnings so far are supporting equities against the pressure from rising interest rates, but that may not be what affects global markets into next year, according to Barclays.

"A more mixed Q3 economy means results should be more mixed too. They could still be enough to help stabilize the market post pull-back, but misses are likely to be punished as lofty '24 estimates remain intact," Barclays analyst Emmanuel Cau wrote in a Wednesday note. "With earnings widely expected to be the last shoe to drop, risk may be tilted to the downside on misses rather than to the upside for beats."

Global EPS revisions and momentum are largely positive so far, Cau said. But 2024 estimates of roughly 10% growth for MSCI World, compared to sequentially lower GDP growth estimates from the firm's economists, makes earnings estimates this year "look ambitious," the analyst said.

"Volume/pricing mix won't get any better, which means significant margin expansion is unlikely. More than the Q3 results themselves, it is '24 guidance that will move markets," Cau said.

— Pia Singh

Are employers ready for the impact of GLP-1 drugs on health insurance costs?

The case continues to grow for taking GLP-1 medications like Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Eli Lilly's Mounjaro. These drugs mimic the effect of stomach hormones and help regulate blood sugar and calm cravings for food. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are leading the category and exploring other potential ways these drugs could be used, and employers are starting to hop on board and add insurance coverage of these drugs.

Accolade released the results of a poll that showed the number of employers that will cover the drug is set to nearly double in the coming year. But Bank of America analyst Allen Lutz is wondering whether employers know how risky this bet is as insurance costs are already rising at a fast pace.

Check out the full story on CNBC Pro.

—Christina Cheddar Berk

UBS downgrades Morgan Stanley stock to neutral

It could be increasingly difficult for Morgan Stanley to realize upside potential, according to UBS.

The investment firm downgraded Morgan Stanley stock to a neutral rating. Shares ticked 0.5% lower on Wednesday.

"Despite its successful transformation into a WM-focused firm with a solid, wirehouse peer leading growth profile, MS is confronted with obstacles such as deposit sorting/yield seeking, intense competition for talent, and a challenging revenue environment," analyst Brennan Hawken wrote.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here.

— Lisa Kailai Han

10-year Treasury yield hits lowest level since September

The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 10 basis points to 4.544% Tuesday morning. This marked its lowest level since Sep. 29, when it yielded as low as 4.508%.

The 30-year Treasury yield also hit a low of 4.705%, its lowest point since Sep. 29, when the 30-yr yielded as low as 4.648%.

The yield on the 5-yr Treasury dropped to 4.541%, the lowest level since Sep. 22,when the 2-yr yielded as low as 4.54%.

— Hakyung Kim

Stocks open in the green on Wednesday

Major stock indexes opened higher on Wednesday.

— Pia Singh

Wholesale prices rise more than expected in September

The producer price index rose 0.5% in September, the Labor Department said Wednesday. That exceeded a Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% gain. Excluding food and energy, prices were up 0.3% versus a 0.2% forecast.

— Jeff Cox

Dialysis providers slammed on news of Ozempic's success in kidney trial

Shares of dialysis service providers DaVita and Fresenius Medical Care both tumbled 15% in premarket trading after news of Ozempic's effectiveness in a kidney disease treatment trial.

Novo Nordisk announced late Tuesday it was halting the study early after an independent committee monitoring the trial concluded criteria was met to show efficacy.

Baxter, which makes products for chronic dialysis therapies, was also hit, sliding 8%.

Shares of Novo Nordisk were up 3.5% before the bell.

— Michelle Fox

Stocks making the biggest moves premarket

Check out some of the companies making headlines in premarket trading.

DaVitaNovo Nordisk — Shares of the dialysis services provider sank 15% on the news of Ozempic's effectiveness in Novo Nordisk's kidney disease treatment study. Shares of Novo Nordisk added 3.1%.

Exxon Mobil, Pioneer Natural Resources – Shares of Exxon Mobil were lower by more than 1% premarket after the company agreed to buy Pioneer for nearly $60 billion, or $253 per share, in an all-stock merger. Meanwhile, Pioneer shares rose 2.5%. Exxon said production volume in the Permian Basin would more than double after the deal closes.

Humana — Shares dipped slightly after Humana said Bruce Broussard will step down as CEO in the second half of 2024.

Read the full list here.

— Brian Evans

Exxon's big deal for shale driller

Exxon Mobil is buying shale driller Pioneer Natural Resources for $253 a share in an all-stock transaction worth $59.5 billion that gives the oil giant a dominant presence in the Permian Basin.

The expected deal was confirmed by the companies Wednesday morning. Pioneer shares added about 1.5% in premarket trading. They were up about 10% in the past week as reports signaled a deal was close. Exxon shares were down about 1.3% in early trading.

The merger, the largest on Wall Street this year, is expected to close in the first half of 2024, the companies said.

—John Melloy, Fred Imbert

Europe stocks choppy

European stock markets were choppy in early trade, with the Stoxx 600 moving between losses and gains.

The U.K.'s FTSE 100 was flat at 9:30 a.m. in London, while Germany's DAX fell 0.2% and France's CAC 40 fell 0.96%.

— Jenni Reid

China’s consumer spending isn’t roaring back to pre-pandemic levels yet

Consumer spending in China isn't growing as quickly as it did before the pandemic, analysts said.

Retail sales for the Sept. 29 to Oct. 5 holiday period rose by 9% from a year ago, according to state media reports of Ministry of Commerce data. The figures excluded the final day of the Golden Week holiday.

Analysts pointed to factors including the impact of the property slump — since much of household wealth is in real estate — and a decline in government spending due to local debt troubles as reasons contributing to slowdown in consumer spending.

Read the full story here.

— Evelyn Cheng, Shreyashi Sanyal

Business morale subdued in Japan as Reuters Tankan survey unchanged in October

Confidence among large Japanese manufacturers was subdued in October, according to the Reuters Tankan survey, which measures business sentiment among large Japanese companies.

The Reuters poll, which tracks the Bank of Japan's closely watched tankan quarterly survey, saw manufacturers' mood flat at +4 index points in October, although it was expected to inch up over the coming three months.

The services-sector mood edged up, as upbeat domestic demand helped partly offset the hit to the economy from global headwinds.

The service-sector index rose to +24 in October, slightly improving from +23 from the previous month.

— Shreyashi Sanyal

Seoul stocks jump as Samsung leads gains

South Korean stocks jumped about 2%, hitting a two-week high on a boost from chip giant Samsung Electronics.

Samsung is expecting a 78% drop in operating profit in the quarter ended September, according to guidance released by the company. The operating profit forecast was slightly higher than analyst expectations. Shares of the company jumped 3.77%.

Counterpart SK Hynix rose about 3%.

— Shreyashi Sanyal

Birkenstock expected to price IPO at $46 per share

German shoemaker Birkenstock is expected to price its initial public offering at $46 per share on Tuesday, CNBC reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

The pricing would put Birkenstock near the midpoint of its $44 to $49 per share range, and give it a tentative valuation of roughly $8.64 billion.

The company plans to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker "BIRK."

— Leslie Picker, Gabrielle Fonrouge

Smallcaps scored 5th straight advance Tuesday, outperforming S&P 500

Small capitalization companies scored a fifth consecutive advance Tuesday, with the Russell 2000 index rising 1.14%, more than twice the 0.52% gain in the S&P 500.

The Russell 2000 is higher by 2.8% since Oct. 3 while the S&P 500 has risen 3.0%.

The smallcap benchmark is 11.5% below its 52-week high reached on Feb. 2 while the S&P 500 is 5.4% below its 52-week high dating from July 27. Over the first two trading days of this week, smallcaps are up 1.7% versus the S&P 500's 1.2% gain.

— Scott Schnipper

Stock futures open little changed

Stock futures opened little changed on Tuesday evening.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 hovered near the flatline. Nasdaq-100 futures inched up 0.07%.

— Samantha Subin

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