Recovery Might Be Closer Than You Think: Analysts - NBC New York

Recovery Might Be Closer Than You Think: Analysts



    The light at the end of the tunnel might be around the corner as the downturn is nearing the usual length of the average bear market, but the UK markets could still go lower, analysts told CNBC Thursday.

    "The average bear market, over the past 100 years, has lasted 84 weeks. There are currently 10-12 weeks left in this market for it to become an average length recession," Alpesh Patel from Praefinium Group said.

    A key point that Patel made was the fact that "the US markets have taken out their 2002 and 2003 lows, the FTSE has not." "Usually the UK does not outperform the US," added Patel which means that the FTSE has some room to go lower, to around 3,400.

    However, "based on how much we've fallen and the normal duration of these circumstances, then the bottom may not be too far off, both in terms of time and debt," Patel said.

    "Despite all the bad news, there is still some engine in the economy," added Patel.

    "Even though we are about 74 weeks into this recession, there are some companies that are still generating profits, and this tends to get overlooked." However, investors should still proceed with caution as there may be more shoes to drop, analysts said.

    "It’s not a question of not liking anything, but short-term trading scenarios are still in play," Stephen Pope from Cantor Fitzgerald Europe said when asked where he would invest his money.

    "Pharmaceuticals are not the safe haven that people once thought. There is also no good news about the car companies," added Pope.

    It is important "to pick up good indicators, leading indicators," according to Pope. Patel and Pope both agree that there is still opportunity in Asia, mainly in India.

    "There is still an ongoing demand for optical corrective wear, so Nikon is a venture that could be pursued," Pope said.

    "However, companies that work with the retail customer are to be avoided because of the little demand signal that is coming through," Pope added.

    "The Dow (Dow: .DJIA) is going to go to 6,000 and gold will be coming of its highs, so stay out of the market for at least the next 10 weeks. Pharmaceuticals and consumer staples will be strong sectors and a good place to get undervalued equities," concluded Patel.

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