In the late 1990s Miller Samuel began to collect listing inventory of co-ops, condos, townhouses and lofts—first quarterly, and then later monthly. Above is a representation of co-op and condo inventory since 2002. The gray bars represent the total level of inventory (co-op + condo) while the red and black lines are the individual co-op and condo levels.
The "zone" as measured by the horizontal dotted gray lines marks the high and low inventory marks since 2002. The low mark was set in December 2004 with 3,922 units listed for sale, while the high mark was set in June 2004 with 7,640 units. That’s a 3,718 unit or 94.7% swing from trough to peak in 18 months. Apparently inventory levels do not change at a glacial pace. Inventory is still below peak levels in 2006 but just barely.
Up until June 2006, there were consistently more co-op listings than condo listings. The new development condo construction boom, which began in 2003-2004, pushed condo inventory levels on par with co-ops by mid-2006 and have remained at slightly higher levels since then.
Listing trends are going to be interesting when new condo product entering the market falls sharply in 2009 (largely because of the credit crunch). It will still take a few years to absorb all new development product on the market after that point.
· Manhattan Co-op and Condo Listing Inventory [Miller Samuel]
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