Once taken as a foregone conclusion, New York's gubernatorial race appears to be closer than most anyone expected possible with just a week until Election Day.
Two new GOP-leaning polls put Rep. Lee Zeldin either slightly ahead of or slightly behind Gov. Kathy Hochul, suggesting a down-to-the-wire race. (That said, most polls still show a larger lead for Hochul, albeit smaller than it was a few weeks ago.)
The Democrat Hochul, seeking her first full term in office, expected little challenge from Zeldin, a conservative Long Island Republican known for his anti-abortion, pro-gun, pro-Trump stance.
But Zeldin's tough-on-crime message appears to be resonating in a state where that has become a voter preoccupation. See our extended one-on-ones with both candidates below.
Get Tri-state area news and weather forecasts to your inbox. Sign up for NBC New York newsletters.
Hochul Goes One-on-One
Local
Zeldin Goes One-on-One
A Trafalgar Group poll released Monday night had Zeldin on 48.4% support, versus 47.6% for Hochul, with about 4% of voters undecided. (The survey of 1,198 likely general election voters, conducted statewide Oct. 27-31, had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.)
While Trafalgar is known as a Republican-leaning pollster, it's also considered relatively accurate, with an "A-" rating from FiveThirtyEight. It also has the bragging rights of being closer than anyone else in last year's unexpectedly tight New Jersey governor's race.
That followed another firmly GOP-leaning poll, from former Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway, whose survey for Citizens United of 501 likely voters had Hochul up by one point, 46%-45%. (The poll was conducted Oct. 27-29 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.)
To be sure, despite those two results, most polls still put Hochul ahead of Zeldin, with a lead well outside the margin of error. Late last week, a Civiqs poll had her up 11 points, and polls from Slingshot Strategies and from Emerson College both had her up 6 points.
But that's still far closer than expected, particularly given that Hochul's average poll lead was still well in the double digits just three weeks ago.
The Times Union reported late Monday that the Republican Governors Association has pumped another $1.5 million into a super PAC backing Zeldin, while the New York Times reported Sunday that the Democratic Governors Association was forming its own super PAC to pump money into the race for Hochul.
