NFC Projected Carries

Running back committees, like Manning brothers, are not all created equal. In this era of vanishing 300-carry backs, it's more important than ever to know each backfield's unique makeup. This column, and its AFC cousin to follow, will project the workload for every team. In fantasy football, it's usually more important to know how often a player will get the ball rather than how explosive he is with it in his hands.

For each team below, I included the average number of running back attempts per season with the team's current head coach. I project whether that number will go up or down, and then split up the workload.

Arizona Cardinals
Coach: Ken Whisenhunt| Average Rushes/Year: 365
Projected 2008 Carries: 383

Whiz has the reputation for smashmouth football from his days in Pittsburgh, but his Kurt Warner-led 2007 squad was pass wacky. The offense should balance out somewhat this season, but the team's talent still resides in the passing game. Improvement on defense would help.

Edgerrin James: 295
Tim Hightower: 75
J.J. Arrington: 18

We're all rooting for Hightower, if only because the Edgerrin James era is stale and there figures to be plentiful Police Academy and "Timmy!" jokes involved. James had the highest percentage of carries for any starter last year, with his backups only getting 41 carries (11%). Early indications are that Hightower will get a beefed-up role, but a closer split than this is wishful thinking.

See Hightower's spanking new projection and rank in our online draft guide.

Atlanta Falcons
Coach: Mike Smith| Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2008 Carries: 390

Judging by offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey's history and Atlanta's personnel, the Falcons will lean heavily on the run. But there can only be so many carries if the team always plays from behind and goes three-and-out often.

Michael Turner: 275
Jerious Norwood: 95
Thomas Brown: 10

The Falcons say they will work Norwood into the mix more often. We'll believe it when we see it. Mularkey loves power running backs and the Falcons gave Turner huge money. Norwood is a better value at his average draft slot, but the Falcons offense will hold both players back.

Carolina Panthers
Coach: John Fox| Average Rushes/Year: 415
Projected 2008 Carries: 405

We heard it 227 times this off-season: John Fox wants to get back to power football. The Panthers never really got away from it though - they just haven't been effective for years. (They also got away from reasonable quarterback play last year, but David Carr has left the building). The Panthers still have two high draft picks in the backfield, so not much
changed.

Jonathan Stewart: 245
DeAngelo Williams: 155
LaBrandon Toefield: 5

This is undeniably one of the toughest backfields to project, especially with Stewart's toe injury lingering. While Williams was given a bigger share in our latest daily draft guide update, I'm sticking with the rookie. The Panthers want a bruiser, not a shifty back. That's why they took him so high in the draft. That's why Williams couldn't push Foster off the field. Williams may start the season as the starter, but Stewart should finish it off.

Chicago Bears
Coach: Love Smith| Average Rushes/Year: 421
Projected 2008 Carries: 415

The Thomas Jones-Cedric Benson years twice reached 470 carries a season, so there is potential here for huge totals. But the team didn't reach 400 last season because the offense was so poor. And it looks worse this season.

Matt Forte: 240
Kevin Jones: 90
Adrian Peterson: 55
Garrett Wolfe: 20

Jones may not be 100% until well into the season, but he's off the camp/PUP list. Once that happens, he could play every third series. Lovie Smith doesn't like to burden one back with all the work, and they are asking a lot from Forte. He will need to be a higher volume runner than I project to fully overcome his weak teammates. Forte remains a better RB3 than second running back pick.

Dallas Cowboys
Coach: Wade Phillips| Average Rushes/Year: 387
Projected 2008 Carries: 380

The Cowboys had low rushing attempts last season considering how dominant their offense was. If they played from behind more often, this team could go very pass-heavy.

Marion Barber: 240
Felix Jones: 120
Tashard Choice: 20

Yes, the Cowboys see MBIII as a lead back. But his wild style needs to be monitored or he could burn out. Barber's total looks low, but his career high is 207. Felix Jones is a shiny new toy that Jason Garrett will use as a receiver often. Choice could be a key factor if Barber ever gets hurt, because Jones isn't ready for 20 carries a game.

Detroit Lions
Coach: Rod Marinelli| Average Rushes/Year: 274
Projected 2008 Carries: 355

Ding, dong, Martz is gone! I'm not sure why the Lions receivers seem so happy about this, but the running backs happiness is understandable. They will be reintroduced to the joys of touching the football.

Kevin Smith: 160
Tatum Bell: 100
Brian Calhoun: 70
Artose Pinner: 25

My total lack of faith that any Detroit back will be successful or healthy for long explains the jumbled picture. Smith is an injury waiting to happen. Bell apologists pine for the glory days he never had. Detroit's offensive line also has a long way to prove they can run block.

Green Bay Packers
Coach: Mike McCarthy| Average Rushes/Year: 369
Projected 2008 Carries: 390

The Packers finally approached some semblance of balance late last season after Ryan Grant's emergence. With Brett Favre gone, look for that trend to continue.

Ryan Grant: 290
Brandon Jackson: 65
DeShawn Wynn: 25
Vernand Morency: 10

Perhaps Jackson's strong off-season deserves more of a boost, but the Packers weren't shy about working Grant hard last season. He averaged just fewer than twenty carries a game once he broke out in Week 6. Jackson is more likely to take passing down work. Grant's heavy workload in a watered-down season for backs helps make him our last first-round pick.

Minnesota Vikings
Coach: Brad Childress| Average Rushes/Year: 410
Projected 2008 Carries: 420

Oh, the projections I could give Minnesota if they had a decent quarterback. With a little more help from the passing game keeping drives alive, this team would run 475 times.

Adrian Peterson: 270
Chester Taylor: 135
Maurice Hicks: 25

Peterson's extra snaps this season should come mostly on passing downs. Taylor gets a large projected workload for a backup because of Peterson's injury risk and Minnesota's run-heavy ways. Like I wrote above, there is potential for Peterson to hit 300 carries and Taylor to hit 150. Giddy up!

New Orleans Saints
Coach: Sean Payton| Average Rushes/Year: 382
Projected 2008 Carries: 385

This is a pass-first team that must play from ahead to get high rushing totals. With Deuce McAllister out last year, their running backs had 62 fewer rushes than the year prior. Even if Deuce isn't 100% this season, they should be more balanced after Drew Brees attempted the third-most passes in NFL history.

Reggie Bush: 175
Pierre Thomas: 105
Deuce McAllister: 70
Aaron Stecker: 35

No one expects Deuce McAllister to stay healthy for long, assuming he even makes the opening week roster. This would be a career high in rushes for Bush by 20, but he's not going to top 200. That leaves a big role for super sleeper Thomas. Stecker is useful in case of emergency.

New York Giants
Coach: Tom Coughlin| Average Rushes/Year: 423
Projected 2008 Carries: 420

Tom Coughlin is not afraid to pound the opponent into submission. With a mauling line and a deep backfield, they could be among the league leaders in attempts this season.

Brandon Jacobs: 220
Ahmad Bradshaw: 140
Derrick Ward: 65

Bradshaw's role should remain consistent regardless of Jacobs' health. Bradshaw will provide a homerun threat and keep the starter fresh. Ward is essentially Jacobs' big-bodied backup. You can't expect 16 games from Jacobs, but you can expect top-ten production when he plays. Handcuffing him with Ward in deep leagues makes sense.

Philadelphia Eagles
Coach: Andy Reid| Average Rushes/Year: 343
Projected 2008 Carries: 365

Every year, there are articles in Philadelphia about important goals like . balance! And running the football! But the Eagles remain one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league. This is great for Brian Westbrook, because many of his receptions are just long handoffs.

Brian Westbrook: 235
Lorenzo Booker: 55
Correll Buckhalter: 55
Tony Hunt: 20

This would mark a 43-carry drop for Westbrook, roughly back to his 2006 totals. With better depth in the backfield, look for the Eagles to ease off their leader. Booker has more fantasy value than Buckhalter because he'll catch more passes, but the two figure to split carries if Westbrook ever gets hurt.

San Francisco 49ers
Coach: Mike Nolan| Average Rushes/Year: 353
Projected 2008 Carries: 322

San Francisco usually doesn't run much because their offense can't stay on the field. With Mike Martz around, they may start moving the ball, but should run less. Martz's Detroit teams didn't crack 300 carries from running backs, but they didn't have Frank Gore.

Frank Gore: 245
DeShaun Foster: 57
Michael Robinson: 20

Gore will need to make up for his lack of carries with more receptions. Since a reception will gain almost twice as much as a carry, an added thirty receptions would make up for 60 carries. (Receptions are worth more in PPR leagues). Martz can help Gore make up the gap. The key is staying healthy and getting some help from Gore's teammates. As I've said for years, Gore would win a league MVP if he played for the Chargers. Hopefully we aren't expecting too much from Martz's magic pixie dust.

Seattle Seahawks
Coach: Mike Holmgren| Average Rushes/Year: 404
Projected 2008 Carries: 400


Like his West Coast system forefather Bill Walsh, Mike Holmgren relies on a heavy volume of runs to augment his shinier pass attack. It doesn't hurt that Seattle often plays from ahead. Last year's Shaun Alexander-led crew had the fewest attempts in Holmgren's Seattle era, but that was primarily because Alexander played so poorly.

Julius Jones: 200
Maurice Morris: 133
T.J. Duckett: 45
Leonard Weaver: 22

We've added carries for Morris throughout the off-season. Mike Holmgren continues to say that the Seahawks will split carries evenly between Morris and Jones, so this projection may continue to be tweaked. Still, Jones will keep some edge. They paid him big money to get more work than Morris, and Holmgren is probably trying to keep the pressure off Jones early in the year. At this point, neither Seahawk back is an inspiring fantasy choice, but Morris could be undervalued as a RB4.

St. Louis Rams
Coach: Scott Linehan| Average Rushes/Year: 387
Projected 2008 Carries: 400


The Rams added coordinator Al Saunders to call plays, which should increase the Rams' rushing totals. He also should call fewer pass plays in the red zone than Scott Linehan, who loved to throw for six. Unfortunately, the talent in St. Louis is waning on offense, especially on the line.

Steven Jackson: 310
Antonio Pittman: 50
Brian Leonard: 40

Q: How long does Jackson have to holdout to change our projection of him?
A: The weekend of August 24. If he returns by then, he'll have two weeks to get ready.

That's roughly when Larry Johnson ended his holdout last year. Rams camp ends August 14, and I expect contract talks to pick up after that. This is a long season, and missing a few weeks of camp isn't a huge concern. Jackson is going to have a huge workload.

While Pittman is the backup here, Leonard will get plenty of carries playing fullback. If Jackson were hurt, Pittman and Leonard would probably split carries. They are weak handcuffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coach: Jon Gruden| Average Rushes/Year: 377
Projected 2008 Carries: 375


Jon Gruden likes long, grinding drives. And with a roster bereft of big playmakers, that's what he'll need to be successful this year. That could lead to more attempts than usual, but we expect the offense to take a step back overall.

Earnest Graham: 210
Warrick Dunn: 90
Michael Bennett: 40
Carnell Williams: 35

Will Graham be closer to Ryan Grant or Brandon Jacobs in terms of his usage? We're betting on the latter. Warrick Dunn is going to be very active on passing downs, and Gruden may grow impatient with Graham's relative lack of speed. A committee of some sort seems likely. In Graham's favor is the weak competition for carries. Bennett never lives up to the hype, Dunn is well past his prime, and Cadillac may not play at all this season.

Washington Redskins
Coach: Jim Zorn| Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2008 Carries:


The Redskins are going from a play-caller that is very run-heavy to one that figures to be moderately run heavy. That could slightly hurt Clinton Portis, but Washington will still feed him plenty.

Clinton Portis: 305
Ladell Betts: 90

This is not a partnership. While Betts is one of the league's best backups, Portis should contend for the league lead in carries again. His improved conditioning level bodes well for his chances of racking up carries, making him a safe late first-round pick.

For complete projections, ranks, tiers, 500+ profiles, and countless tools and columns, check out our online draft guide.

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