NBC 4 Sports Anchor Bruce Beck Handicaps Kentucky Derby: American Pharoah Will Triumph

The Kentucky Derby is known as the greatest two minutes in sports, and for good reason. It's more than a horse race: it is a festival. It is a gigantic cocktail party. It is a part of Americana.

From the Twin Spires to the mint juleps to 19 of the best 3-year-old horses in the world, Churchill Downs will be alive and jumping on Saturday. A crowd of over 160,000 is expected, and millions more will be watching the coverage live on NBC Sports.

The field that has been assembled in 2015 is the best in years, and you could make a case that as many as eight horses can win this race. But in my mind there is only one superstar, one horse that has championship timber. His name is American Pharoah and he will likely be the post-time favorite at odds of 2-1 or 5-2.

The son of Pioneer of the Nile, he is trained by Bob Baffert, who's won this race three times. American Pharoah is ridden by Victor Espinoza, who has two Derby wins to his credit, including one just last year, aboard California Chrome.

Anyone who knows me understands that I do not like favorites. But this time I have to endorse The Chalk. American Pharoah is two for two this year, including impressive victories in The Arkansas Derby and The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He has won on a fast track and a sloppy track. Last year, he won the Eclipse Award for 2-year-old male.

But it's more than stats and honors that makes this horse super. He just looks the part. His stride is the envy of all horsemen. He has charisma and speed, a dynamite combination.

Espinoza said recently that "American Pharoah been winning so easily that I really haven't had a chance to push him, to see what he's really got." Well, we'll all find out on this first Saturday in May what happens when Espinoza lets him loose.

There are other standouts in this field of 19, including the second half of the incredibly tough Baffert-trained one-two punch. Dortmund is a perfect six-for-six lifetime and has won from both off the pace and on the lead. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Run for the Roses.

Carpe Diem is four-for-five lifetime, with his only loss coming in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, where he finished second. He is trained by Todd Pletcher, who sends out four runners in the 141st Running of the Kentucky Derby. Materiality is another Pletcher hopeful. The undefeated colt captured the Florida Derby impressively. He looks to become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without a race as a 2-year-old.

There are others who figure prominently in a race that even my mother loves to watch. Frosted comes off a victory in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. International Star won his last three races, including The Louisiana Derby, by a neck. Firing Line, with Hall of Famer Gary Stevens comes in off a victory in the Sunland Derby by 14 1/4 lengths.

Upstart, who was second in the Florida Derby, has been "in the money," seven for seven lifetime. And then there's the invader, Mubtaahij from Ireland, who dominated the Grade 2, UAE Derby. No one really knows how good that field was -- and know one know how good this horse is.

It is a fiercely talented and deep field and yes, it's easy to fall in love with one of these regal colts. But there's only one who will win The Run for the Roses on Saturday --and that is American Pharoah. He has the look, dare I say, of a Triple Crown horse -- and that's a lot to say. Affirmed was the last Triple Crown winner, way back in 1978.

Remember, the Kentucky Derby is a cavalry charge, and racing luck is a huge ingredient needed for success. Plus, these horses are going a mile and a quarter for the first time in their career. But even with lots of question marks and lots of variables, class will rise to the top: American Pharoah wins thoroughbred racing's most electric race in electrifying fashion!

Contact Us