What to Know
Arctic chills continue Monday, although it's expected to be slightly warmer than it was over the weekend
Snow will start early Tuesday morning and continue throughout the day, moving out of the tri-state in the late evening
12 to 18 inches are expected, with up to 2 feet in some areas; wind gusts may top 40 mph, and on Long Island they could near 60 mph
A blizzard warning was issued for New York City and much of the tri-state ahead of a potentially crippling nor'easter that's expected to bring heavy snow and strong winds throughout the day Tuesday.
Storm Team 4 says the storm will likely be the biggest of the winter and a foot of snow could potentially drop in the tri-state. The metro New York region could see up to 12 to 18 inches of snow, with some spots getting up to 2 feet. Wind gusts will frequently top 40 mph and could near 60 mph at times on Long Island.
The National Weather Service issued the blizzard warning for New York City and Long Island, as well as Fairfield, Westchester, Rockland, Bergen, Hudson, Essex, Union, Monmouth and Ocean counties all day Tuesday. A winter storm warning was in effect for the entire rest of the tri-state, including parts of North Jersey and the Hudson Valley.
A blizzard warning was issued in anticipation of blowing snow and extremely poor visibility — conditions that will start late Monday and continue through Tuesday evening. The worst weather window will be early morning Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon, Storm Team 4 says.
Forecast models on Sunday night were continuing to put the storm slightly offshore, which is the track that includes the heaviest snowfall for the city and surrounding suburbs, according to Storm Team 4.
If the storm ends up shifting closer to land, there's a higher chance that snow will mix with sleet and rain. Coastal flooding and beach erosion will be even more of a concern for shoreline communities, as the rain and sleet that were expected to stay out at sea batter the coasts instead. Suffolk and Ocean counties are the areas most likely to see sleet, rain and coastal erosion.
A coastal flood watch was issued for Brooklyn, Staten Island and southern Queens for Tuesday morning in anticipation of possible flooding.
On Sunday, dry and cold weather was pushing average highs about 15 or 20 degrees below the seasonal norm for March. Lows were forecast to drop into the 20s in Manhattan and into the teens in the suburbs Sunday night. Monday will be cloudy, chilly and quiet, with highs in the low 30s ahead of Tuesday's storm.
Snowflakes will start to fall in the tri-state between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m. Tuesday. Heavy snow will fall most of the day, with up to 3 inches of snow dropping every hour in the early afternoon, according to Storm Team 4. It will be the biggest snow storm for most of the tri-state, with many areas getting more than a foot of snow and some getting up to two feet.
Storm Team 4 says the system will pull away from the tri-state between between 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. Tuesday.
Some more snow showers are in the forecast for Wednesday ahead of a blustery and sunny day Thursday. Highs will be in the 30s throughout the work week, with St. Patrick's Day seeing the warmest temperatures and a mix of clouds and sun.
Last Friday a winter storm system dropped half a foot of snow on parts of the tri-state.
After the storm moved out by Friday evening, Middletown, New York had seen 6 inches accumulate, while Port Jervis and Mastic Beach, along with Monroe, Connecticut, had 5 inches. Seven inches covered the ground in Orange County's Montgomery. The five boroughs saw less snow, with Central Park getting about 2 inches.
New York City has seen significantly less snow this winter compared to last year. It has snowed 20.5 inches so far this season compared to 32.3 inches by this time in 2016, an amount that was buoyed by one of the largest snowstorms in the city's history last January.